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Tsunami and Earthquake Research
- Publications
Here you will find general information on the science behind tsunami generation, computer animations of tsunamis, and summaries of past field studies.
Field Studies
Our researchers collect data from sites of recent tsunamis to gain a better understanding of the potential impact on other regions with high probability of tsunamis. Their work helps inform coastal planning, protection, and resiliency.
Learn about the earthquakes that triggered recent tsunami events, and watch computer simulations of each tsunami from different angles.
Background information and links to our other tsunami research projects.
Could It Happen Here?
Life of a Tsunami
Local Tsunamis in the Pacific Northwest
Cascadia subduction zone marine geohazards.
- Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes and Tsunamis
Tsunami Hazards, Modeling, and the Sedimentary Record
- Unusual Sources of Tsunamis - Presentation by Eric Geist
The scope of tsunami research within the USGS, however, is broader than the topics covered here. USGS researchers have also provided critical research toward understanding how sediments are transported during tsunami runup and deciphering the geologic record of prehistoric tsunamis. The USGS collaborates closely with the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research .
As part of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program , the USGS has also upgraded the seismograph network and communication functions of the U.S. Tsunami Warning Center .
Soon after the devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004 many people have asked, “Could such a tsunami happen in the United States?” As a starting point, read “ Could It Happen Here? ”
Starting points:
Unusual Sources of Tsunamis
- Not all tsunamis are generated by earthquakes
- Tsunamis can be caused by volcanoes, landslides, and even atmospheric disturbances
- Data from tide gauges can help unravel the complex physics of these sources
Tsunami events:
September 8, 2017, Mexico
March 11, 2011, Japan
- Preliminary simulations of the tsunami
- Notes from the field : International Tsunami Team visits Japan before (2010) and after (May 2011); plus eyewitness accounts from California on March 11
October 25, 2010, Indonesia
February 27, 2010 Chile
September 29, 2009, Samoa
- Preliminary analysis of the tsunami
- USGS scientists in Samoa and American Samoa studying impacts of tsunami
April 1, 2007, Solomon Islands
March 28, 2005, Sumatra
- Analysis and comparison of the December 2004 and March 2005 tsunamis
- Field study of the effects of the December 2004 and March 2005 earthquakes and tsunamis - April 2005
December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Islands
- Tsunami generation from the 2004 M=9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake
- Initial findings on tsunami sand deposits, damage, and inundation in Sumatra - January 2005
- Initial findings on tsunami sand deposits, damage, and inundation in Sri Lanka - January 2005
June 23, 2001, Peru
- Preliminary analysis of the tsunami generated by the earthquake
- Preliminary analysis of sedimentary deposits from the tsunami
July 17, 1998, Papua New Guinea
- Descriptive model of the tsunami
April 18, 1906, San Francisco
Below are current tsunami studies and tsunami education materials.
![tsunami research paper example A map illustration of the seafloor off of a coastal area, that shows the features like submarine canyons and depth.](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/thumbnails/image/california_website_banner.jpg?itok=gTjc2awV)
The Question: Soon after the devastating tsunamis in the Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004 and in Japan on March 11, 2011, many people have asked, "Could such a tsunami happen in the United States?"
![tsunami research paper example Illustration shows a cross-section of a coastline and the beginnings of a tsunami wave that is caused by an earthquake.](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/thumbnails/image/Panel1Initiation.jpg?itok=LCrT7Fb4)
In the past century, several damaging tsunamis have struck the Pacific Northwest coast (Northern California, Oregon, and Washington). All of these tsunamis were distant tsunamis generated from earthquakes located far across the Pacific basin and are distinguished from tsunamis generated by earthquakes near the coast—termed local tsunamis.
![tsunami research paper example April 2011 in waterfront area of Tohoku, Japan following the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami.](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/thumbnails/image/2011_2016_Tohoku_Tsunami_Pairs%20-%20177.jpg?itok=4s7rqJKR)
Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone
Coastal and Marine Geohazards of the U.S. West Coast and Alaska
PubTalk 1/2017 — Unusual sources of tsunamis
A presentation on "Unusual Sources of Tsunamis From Krakatoa to Monterey Bay" by Eric Geist, USGS Research Geophysicist
- Not all tsunamis are generated by earthquakes. - Tsunamis can be caused by volcanoes, landslides, and even atmospheric disturbances - Data from tide gauges can help unravel the complex physics of these sources
Below are USGS publications on a wide variety of topics related to tsunamis.
Earthquake magnitude distributions on northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization models
On-fault earthquake magnitude distributions are calculated for northern Caribbean faults using estimates of fault slip and regional seismicity parameters. Integer programming, a combinatorial optimization method, is used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of earthquakes sampled from a truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution that minimizes the global misfit in slip rates on a complex fau
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
Book review of "tsunami propagation in tidal rivers", by elena tolkova, catastrophic landscape modification from a massive landslide tsunami in taan fiord, alaska.
The October 17th, 2015 Taan Fiord landslide and tsunami generated a runup of 193 m, nearly an order of magnitude greater than most previously surveyed tsunamis. To date, most post-tsunami surveys are from earthquake-generated tsunamis and the geomorphic signatures of landslide tsunamis or their potential for preservation are largely uncharacterized. Additionally, clear modifications described duri
Recent sandy deposits at five northern California coastal wetlands — Stratigraphy, diatoms, and implications for storm and tsunami hazards
A recent geological record of inundation by tsunamis or storm surges is evidenced by deposits found within the first few meters of the modern surface at five wetlands on the northern California coast. The study sites include three locations in the Crescent City area (Marhoffer Creek marsh, Elk Creek wetland, and Sand Mine marsh), O’rekw marsh in the lower Redwood Creek alluvial valley, and Pillar
A combinatorial approach to determine earthquake magnitude distributions on a variable slip-rate fault
Introduction to “global tsunami science: past and future, volume iii”, effect of dynamical phase on the resonant interaction among tsunami edge wave modes, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: multiple sources and global applications, introduction to “global tsunami science: past and future, volume ii”, reducing risk where tectonic plates collide, reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—u.s. geological survey subduction zone science plan.
Below are news stories about tsunamis.
National Preparedness Month 2020: Earthquakes and Tsunamis
Natural hazards have the potential to impact a majority of Americans every year. USGS science provides part of the foundation for emergency ...
A Tale of Two Tsunamis—Why Weren’t They Bigger? Mexico 2017 and Alaska 2018
Why do some earthquakes trigger large tsunamis, and others don’t? Learn how earthquakes produce tsunamis, how scientists predict tsunami size and...
Below are FAQs associated with tsunamis.
![tsunami research paper example Tsunami-evacuation sign in the city of Nehalem, Oregon](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/thumbnails/image/NehalemTsunamiEvacuationSign.jpg?itok=X7936nFc)
Could a large tsunami happen in the United States?
Large tsunamis have occurred in the United States and will undoubtedly occur again. Significant earthquakes around the Pacific rim have generated tsunamis that struck Hawaii, Alaska, and the U.S. west coast. One of the largest and most devastating tsunamis that Hawaii has experienced was in 1946 from an earthquake along the Aleutian subduction zone. Runup heights reached a maximum of 33 to 55 feet...
![tsunami research paper example Tsunami Evacuation Route](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/thumbnails/image/Evacuation%20Sign.jpg?itok=U75fnv62)
Is there a system to warn populations of an imminent occurrence of a tsunami?
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) maintains the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers , and work in conjunction with USGS seismic networks to help determine when and where to issue tsunami warnings. Also, if an earthquake meets certain criteria for potentially generating a tsunami, the pop-up window and the event page for that earthquake on the USGS Latest Earthquakes Map will include...
![tsunami research paper example Image: Tsunami Carried Boat](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/IMG_6461.jpg?itok=dVYEAXne)
What are tsunamis?
Tsunamis are ocean waves triggered by: Large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean Volcanic eruptions Submarine landslides Onshore landslides in which large volumes of debris fall into the water Scientists do not use the term "tidal wave" because these waves are not caused by tides. Tsunami waves are unlike typical ocean waves generated by wind and storms, and most tsunamis do not "break"...
What is it about an earthquake that causes a tsunami?
Although earthquake magnitude is one factor that affects tsunami generation, there are other important factors to consider. The earthquake must be a shallow marine event that displaces the seafloor. Thrust earthquakes (as opposed to strike slip) are far more likely to generate tsunamis, but small tsunamis have occurred in a few cases from large (i.e., > M8) strike-slip earthquakes. Note the...
![tsunami research paper example Large waves crashing on rocks at beach.](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/list_item/public/thumbnails/image/SantaCruz_Hegermiller_2016.png?itok=G-S5vyNm)
What is the difference between a tsunami and a tidal wave?
Although both are sea waves, a tsunami and a tidal wave are two different and unrelated phenomena. A tidal wave is a shallow water wave caused by the gravitational interactions between the Sun, Moon, and Earth ("tidal wave" was used in earlier times to describe what we now call a tsunami.) A tsunami is an ocean wave triggered by large earthquakes that occur near or under the ocean, volcanic...
- Open access
- Published: 10 February 2024
Exploring the Mediterranean tsunami research landscape: scientometric insights and future prospects
- F x Anjar Tri Laksono 1 , 2 ,
- Manoranjan Mishra 3 ,
- Budi Mulyana 4 , 5 &
- János Kovács 1 , 6
Geoenvironmental Disasters volume 11 , Article number: 6 ( 2024 ) Cite this article
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The Mediterranean Sea is a region characterized by high seismic activity, with at least 200 tsunami events recorded from the fourth century to the present twenty-first century. Numerous studies have been conducted to understand past tsunami events, earthquake–tsunami generation, tsunami recurrence periods, tsunami vulnerability zones, and tsunami hazard mitigation strategies. Therefore, gaining insights into future trends and opportunities in Mediterranean Sea tsunami research is crucial for significantly contributing to all relevant aspects. This study aims to assess such trends and opportunities through a scientometric analysis of publications indexed by Web of Science from 2000 to 2023.
Based on a selection of 329 publications, including research articles, review articles, book chapters, and conference papers, published between 2000 and 2023, Italy has the highest number of publications and citations in this field. The number of publications has increased significantly, especially after the 2004 Indian Ocean, 2011 Tohoku, and 2018 Palu tsunamis. According to the keyword analysis, the terms “tsunami”, “earthquake”, “hazard”, “wave”, “Mediterranean”, “coast”, and “tectonic” were the most frequently used in these publications. Research themes consist of four classifications: motor themes, such as seismic hazard; specific but well-developed themes, like tsunamiite; emerging or disappearing themes, for example, climate change; and general or basic themes, such as equations and megaturbidite. The number of publications related to the motor theme classification continued to grow throughout 2000–2023. Topics from 2011–2023 are more complex compared to 2000–2010, characterized by the emergence of new keywords such as evacuation planning, risk reduction, risk mitigation, building vulnerability, coastal vulnerability, climate change, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTVA-3 and PTVA-4). However, topics that were popular in the 2000–2010 period (e.g., paleotsunami deposits, earthquake, and tsunami propagation analysis) also increased in 2011–2023.
Conclusions
Research topics with high centrality and density such as seismic hazard will continue to develop and prospect. The cluster network of this topic includes seismoturbidites, sedimentary features, tsunami modeling, active faults, catalog, and historical earthquakes.
Introduction
Tsunamis are the most devastating movements of oceanic waves, formed by shockwave-generating processes such as earthquakes, submarine and subaerial landslides, volcanic activities, atmospheric disturbance, and asteroid impacts (Behrens et al. 2021 ; Saito and Furumura 2009 ; Sugawara et al. 2020 ). The wave excitation mechanism induces the tsunami propagation process as long waves with periods ranging from a few minutes to several hours, wavelengths from tens to hundreds of kilometers, and in some cases, the tsunami's height reaches tens of meters near the coast before it runs up inland, causing a major impact on the coastal environment (Laksono 2023 ; Laksono et al. 2021 ; Siagian et al. 2014 ; Suppasri et al. 2018 ). When specific external forces disturb oceanic or lacustrine areas, the water mass is temporarily forced to move (Haugen et al. 2005 ). This displacement of the water mass propagates outward with a wavelength depending on the dimensions of the wave source (Heidarzadeh et al. 2022 ; Röbke and Vött 2017 ).
Throughout history, we have witnessed several catastrophic tsunami events. Prominent among these is the tragic 2004 Aceh, Indonesia tsunami, the devastating 2011 Tohoku, Japan tsunami, and the 2018 Palu and Sunda Strait tsunamis in Indonesia, all meticulously examined in the works of Rasyif et al. ( 2019 ), Schambach et al. ( 2021 ), Shinozaki et al. ( 2016 ), and Widiyanto et al. ( 2020 ). In addition to these tragedies, tsunamis have also occurred in other parts of the world, such as the Mediterranean Sea (England et al. 2015 ; Mastronuzzi 2010 ; Schambach et al. 2020 ; Zaniboni et al. 2019 ).Due to the active convergence of lithospheric plates, the Mediterranean Sea region is characterized by high seismicity and significant volcanism (Billi et al. 2023 ; Carafa et al. 2015 ; Fokaefs and Papadopoulos 2007 ). Additionally, submarine landslides are frequent owing to the steep topography that is typical of most basins (Mueller et al. 2020 ; Urgeles and Camerlenghi 2013 ). However, some people believe that tsunamis are very rare in the Mediterranean Sea because historical tsunami events are not well-documented. This assumption also contributed to neglecting the scientific study of tsunamis in the Mediterranean for a long time (Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2005 ).
Until the beginning of the twentieth century, tsunamis were only occasionally mentioned in earthquake catalogues (Grünthal and Wahlström 2012 ; Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2005 ). After the tsunami tragedies of December 20, 1908, in the southern Aegean Sea, Greece, and July 9, 1956, more systematic efforts to catalogue them began in the 1960s when numerical wave modelling and tsunami hazard assessment made significant progress (Antonopoulos 1972 ; Maramai et al. 2014 ). The turning point for tsunami research in the Mediterranean Sea and Europe occurred in the early 1990s when a series of research projects were properly coordinated, leading to rapid progress across the spectrum of tsunami science, technology, and risk mitigation (Papadopoulos 2015 ; Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2005 ; Triantafyllou et al. 2023 ).
Catalogues of tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea have been systematically compiled by authors such as Galanopoulos ( 1960 ), Ambraseys ( 1962 ), Antonopoulos ( 1972 ), Papadopoulos and Chalkis ( 1984 ), Amiran et al. ( 1994 ), Tinti and Maramai ( 1996 ), Tinti et al. ( 2004 ), Soloviev et al. ( 2000 ), Papadopoulos ( 2000 ), Papadopoulos and Fokaefs ( 2005 ), Fokaefs and Papadopoulos ( 2007 ), Papadopoulos et al. ( 2007 , 2010 , 2011 ), Maramai et al. ( 2014 , 2019 , 2021 ), and Triantafyllou et al. ( 2023 ). In the revised catalogue published by Triantafyllou et al. ( 2023 ), it was revealed in detail that the total number of tsunamis in the Mediterranean and connected seas before the fifth century BC to 2021 is 256 events, where 87 events occurred during 1900–2021, 163 events between the fifth century BC to 1899 AD, and 6 tragedies in prehistoric periods before the fifth century BC. The recurrence period of destructive tsunamis (K ≥ 7) is 22 years throughout the Mediterranean Basin and 31, 118, 135, 424, and 1660 years in the eastern Mediterranean, western Mediterranean, Corinth Gulf, Sea of Marmara, and Black Sea basins, respectively (Triantafyllou et al. 2023 ). Geographically, severe tsunami events with the highest risk are found in seismogenic zones with complex geological structures such as the Messina Strait in southern Italy, the Hellenic arc, Adriatic Sea-Greece, and the active volcanic complex of Thera in the southern Aegean Sea, Greece (Anita et al. 2012 ; Flouri et al. 2018 ; McCoy and Heiken 2000 ; Selva et al. 2021 ). Meanwhile, lower-risk tsunamis are found in other tsunamigenic zones such as the western Mediterranean (Tunisia-Sicily including Tyrrhenian Sea), Alboran Sea, Liguria and Cote d'Azur, Tuscany, Calabria, Aeolian Islands, Gargano promontory, Cyclades, and Levantine Sea (Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2005 ; Sørensen et al. 2012 ; Stiros 2010 ; Triantafyllou et al. 2023 ). The lowest tsunami risk lies in the Marmara Sea and Black Sea, while the risk in the Gulf of Corinth is comparable to the western Mediterranean (Kortekaas et al. 2011 ; Novikova et al. 2011 ; Šepic et al. 2015 ).
The tsunami of December 28th, 1908, that occurred in the Messina Strait, Italy, geographically belongs to the eastern Mediterranean Basin (Billi et al. 2008 ; Pino et al. 2009 ). On December 28th, 1908, a calamitous tsunami struck the Mediterranean Sea, leaving a trail of destruction along the eastern coast of Sicily and the southern Calabria region, Italy. The origins of this catastrophe can be traced to a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, vividly described in the studies by Paparo et al. ( 2017 ), Piatanesi et al. ( 1999 ). This earthquake generatedwaves surging 250 m inland in the city of Messina, where both the port and the fortress of St. Salvatore bore the brunt of nature's fury (De Martini et al. 2010 ; Favalli et al. 2009 ). Even places like Syracuse and Augusta, located several kilometers south of the epicenter, found themselves submerged beneath 1.75 m of seawater, as extensively detailed in the research by Billi et al. ( 2010 ), Ridente et al. ( 2014 ), and Smedile et al. ( 2020 ).
Following the December 28, 1908 tsunami study, a wide spectrum of tsunami research topics in the Mediterranean Sea, including the development of paleotsunami databases, analysis of onshore and offshore tsunami sediments, simulation of past tsunami waves, investigation of tsunami zones, and assessment of tsunami wave impacts in coastal areas have been conducted(Maramai et al. 2014 , 2019 , 2021 ; Mueller et al. 2020 ; Papadopoulos 2009 ; Papadopoulos and Fokaefs 2005 ; Scardino et al. 2021 ; Stiros 2010 ; Triantafyllou et al. 2023 ; Zaniboni et al. 2019 ). However, comprehensive review articles encompassing all publications related to Mediterranean tsunamis, indexed in reputable databases, is still missing. There are even only two articles that explicitly discuss tsunami bibliometric studies such as Chiu and Ho ( 2007 ) and Jain et al. ( 2021 ). On the other hand, another study conducted by Nacházel et al. ( 2021 ) places more emphasis on improving data management in tsunami research which includes data compilation, cataloging, data distribution, incompleteness of several data types, connectivity of tsunami scientific study references published by Web of Science, government agencies, commercial organizations, and research institutions using ontology engineering. However, this study does not address in detail and specifically the development of research topics over time in the Mediterranean Sea and connected seas, research gaps, and current and future trends in tsunami research themes in the Mediterranean.
A scientometric analysis of tsunamis in the Mediterranean region is needed to assist researchers in establishing the state of the art and addressing unsolved research gaps. Although there have been many tsunami studies in the Mediterranean region (Mueller et al. 2020 ; Polonia et al. 2017 ; San Pedro et al. 2017 ; Stiros 2010 ; Visini et al. 2009 ), the absence of scientometric studies has led to the assumption that research on this topic is no longer prospective (Kaur and Sood 2020a , b ; Sagar et al. 2010 ). In fact, many past tsunami events in the Mediterranean region have not been recorded in databases due to the lack of geological evidence in the field (De Martini et al. 2012 ; Smedile et al. 2011 ). The analysis of keywords, topics and themes that emerge in this scientometric analysis can assist in capturing the development of tsunami research outputs (Chiu and Ho 2007 ; Jain et al. 2021 ) in the Mediterranean and their impact on science and society, identifying current trends in Mediterranean tsunami research, and reflecting on the science structure evolution within the framework of connections among different scientific concepts (Goerlandt et al. 2021 ; Kaur and Sood 2020a , b ) in order to understand the landscape of Mediterranean tsunami research. Insights into the progression of Mediterranean tsunami research topics over time can serve as a basis for searching future research prospects or finding solutions to current unsolved issues. This scientometric analysis is also useful in literature studies, especially to sort out references relevant to the Mediterranean tsunami research topic.
Data and methods
The method applied in this study consists of two stages: data extraction and scientometric analysis. The data extraction stage includes database selection and search strategy while the scientometric analysis stage comprises performance analysis and science mapping (Fig. 1 ).
![tsunami research paper example figure 1](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig1_HTML.png)
Flowchart of the scientometric analysis study of tsunamis in the Mediterranean region. Two critical stages in the scientometric study are data collection and scientometric analysis using the two software VOSviewer and SciMAT
Data collection
The data used in this study were obtained from the Web of Science (WOS) database on January 10, 2023 by inputting the keywords “tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea” OR “tsunami in the Mediterranean Region” OR “tsunami in south Europe” OR “tsunami in north Africa” with document types including research articles, review articles, book chapters, and proceedings. The document publication years range from 2000–2023 and are indexed by Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-Expanded), Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S), Social Science Citation Index (SSCI), Book Citation Index-Science (BKCI-S), Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI), Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH), and Book Citation Index-Social Sciences & Humanities (BKCI-SSH). The total number of research and review publications collected based on these criteria was 329 with information identified including citations, bibliographies, abstracts and keywords in plain text file format. Furthermore, the scientometric dataset files were transferred to SciMat software to extract strategy diagrams and thematic evolution maps.
The determination of publication years 2000–2023 is based on the existence of major tsunami events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2006 Pangandaran tsunami, the 2010 Mentawai tsunami, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, the 2018 Lombok and Palu tsunamiswith overall casualties reaching several hundred thousand people and having impacts on a regional scale (Jihad et al. 2020 ; Laksono et al. 2022 ; Pilarczyk et al. 2014 ; Pribadi et al. 2021 ; Schambach et al. 2021 ; Suppasri et al. 2018 ). In addition, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, tsunami modeling software was significantly developed in line with the rapid advancement of computer, communication and information technology (Behrens and Dias 2015 ; Rakowsky et al. 2013 ). High-resolution remote sensing technology, earthquake detection and tsunami early warning systems have developed very rapidly, especially after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. (Bernard and Titov 2015 ; Koshimura et al. 2020 ; Utheim et al. 2014 ).
- Scientometric analysis
Scientometrics is a scientific method that employs quantitative data, such as scientific publications, citations, research collaborations, and specific indices, to measure, analyze, and comprehend the development, impact, and structure of science, ultimately revealing trends in scientific research (Huang et al. 2022 ; Owolabi and Sajjad 2023 ; Sood and Rawat 2021 ). Scientometric analysis consists of two main stages: performance analysis and science mapping analysis (Mishra et al. 2023 ). Performance analysis is based on scientometric indicators that measure the number of publications of each individual such as authors and journals as well as the impact achieved through publication and citation data (Cobo et al. 2012 ; Mishra et al. 2023 ). Science mapping provides a topological and temporal representation of a particular research field's cognitive and social structure (Cobo et al. 2011 ). There are various tools available for scientometric analysis such as Biblioshiny (R Package), VOSviewer, SciMAT, CiteSpace, and BibExcel. Each of these software has different mapping principles, algorithms, output displays, advantages, and disadvantages (Acharyya et al. 2023 ; Aria and Cuccurullo 2017 ; Chen et al. 2012 ; Venkatraman et al. 2018 ). Therefore, the application of a single tool in scientometric analysis is less reliable, in this study we utilize two software namely VOSviewer and SciMAT (Cobo et al. 2011 ).
VOSviewer is a free open access scientometric tool employed to create scientometric networks of different individuals such as authors and institutional affiliations using various network analysis methods such as author collaboration, co-citation, co-occurrence, and bibliographic coupling (Mishra et al. 2021 ; Shen et al. 2023 ; van Eck and Waltman 2010 ). Data from the WOS database was imported into VOSviewer to perform several analyses, including co-authorship, co-occurrence, citation, and co-citation. The co-authorship analysis consists of the names, organizational affiliations, and countries of origin of the authors. Co-occurrence analysis is related to all keywords used in the publications and measures the strength of the relationship between keywords (Kuzior and Sira 2022 ; van Eck and Waltman 2010 ). This measurement is based on the frequency of connections between the two entities. Citation analysis includes the most cited articles, journals, authors, author affiliations, and countries or regions.
The co-citation analysis type includes cited references, cited sources, and cited authors, which are articles, journals, and authors most frequently cited by other documents or research, indicating a connection between these sources. The publication period is divided into 2000–2010 and 2011–2023, aiming to determine the differences in keyword occurrence trends. The identification of research gaps is carried out based on the frequency of occurrence and the relationships among keywords (Fathianpour et al. 2023 ; Feng and Cui 2021 ). Keywords that rarely appear, have weak interrelationships or are not connected to other keywords likely indicate a research gap (Hossain et al. 2023 ; Waseem and Rana 2023 ). However, the relevance among keywords needs to be considered before determining the existence of research gaps based on the keyword network map in VOSviewer. Therefore, a scientometric analysis using SciMAT is required to classify relevant topics. SciMAT is also an open-access software developed to perform scientometric analysis under a longitudinal framework and supports various analyses (Cobo et al. 2012 ).
In this study we employed the term co-occurrence to identify closely related concepts and explore the thematic evolution over the past 23 years. The SciMAT software output is a strategic diagram (Fig. 2 A) that illustrates the themes and keywords of the study based on two indicators: cluster centrality (horizontal axis) and density (vertical axis) (López-Robles et al. 2021 ; Rincon-Patino et al. 2018 ). Cluster centrality indicates the strength of interdisciplinary relationships and the centrality of themes in research development. Density reflects the degree of strength (Cobo et al. 2012 ; Selvavinayagam 2018 ). The diagram is divided into four quadrants based on their relevance. Research themes are symbolized as circles and their size is proportional to the number of publications related to the research theme (Acharyya et al. 2023 ; Mishra et al. 2023 ; Moral-Muñoz et al. 2020 ).
![tsunami research paper example figure 2](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig2_HTML.png)
A Strategic diagram and B cluster network diagram based on co-occurrence analysis of various tsunami-related research themes in the Mediterranean region using SciMAT software. The numbers in the figure denote the number of articles
The motor theme/quadrant 1, located in the top right, indicates a theme that is well-developed and important for building the research field (Fig. 2 A). The themes in quadrant 2 (top left) describe themes that are very specific and peripheral in character. Themes in this quadrant are considered to have low relevance because they have well-developed internal ties but their external links are not so important. The third quadrant at the bottom left includes themes that are less developed and relevant, representing emerging or disappearing themes. The fourth quadrant in the bottom right indicates themes that are relevant but less developed because they are understood as transversal, primary, and general topics (Li et al. 2021 ; Mishra et al. 2023 ). Additionally, SciMAT software can also generate diagrams showing the relationships among clusters (Fig. 2 B).
Number of publication trend
The total number of articles published between 2000 and 2023 generally shows an increasing trend. However,there are specific years when it fluctuates (see Fig. 3 ). For instance, between 2000 and 2006, the number of publications related to tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea remained consistently below 10, and there was even a declining pattern. In 2001 and 2002, only one and two documents were published, respectively, down from eight papers in 2000. In 2003, the number of publications increased again to three papers, but fell to only one document in 2004 and 2005. The publications increased again in 2006 and 2007, reaching 9 and 13 documents, respectively. However, in 2008, the number of publications dropped slightly to 11, followed by an upturn to 18 papers in 2009. In 2010, the number of publications declined to 11 articles, matching the count in 2008. Between 2011 and 2014, the number of articles published fluctuated. In 2011 and 2012, the number of publications amounted to 14 and 20 articles, respectively, either maintaining or increasing compared to the previous year. However, the number of publications in 2013 dipped to 14 articles, the same as the count in 2011. In the following years, 2014 and 2015, the number of publications consistently climbed to 21 and 24 papers, respectively.
![tsunami research paper example figure 3](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig3_HTML.png)
Number of articles and citations on tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea from 2000 to 2023: Generally, the number of publications shows significant growth, especially after 2005. However, the number of citations for articles published in the last two decades tends to fluctuate. Articles published in 2009 were cited by the most authors compared to the preceding and subsequent years
The highest number of publications in the last two decades was in 2021, with 28 articles. Meanwhile, the number of articles in 2023 was only 19, lower than in 2021 and 2022. Considering the number of citations, there is a tendency for papers published between 2006 and 2009 to be heavily cited by authors (Fig. 3 ), ranging from 340 to 696 times, as well as papers published in 2012 and 2014, which have been cited 615 and 500 times, respectively. On the other hand, the number of citations for articles published from 2015 to 2023 tends to decrease, ranging from 17 to 345 times. The top ten documents with the highest number of citations are listed in Table 1 . A complete list of 329 articles collected in this study with detailed information, including year of publication, author name, article title, and number of citations, is provided in Additional file 1 : Appendix 1.
According to Table 1 , the document entitled "Eastern Mediterranean tectonics and tsunami hazard inferred from the AD 365 earthquake" published in 2008, has been cited the most by authors with a total of 197 times and an average of 16.42 citations per year. The content of this article comprehensively discusses the tectonic setting of the eastern Mediterranean concerning the AD 365 earthquake–tsunami event which is recorded as one of the largest earthquake and tsunami events in the Mediterranean throughout history. The article also presents essential information that the possibility of similar earthquakes and tsunamis occurs once every 5000 years for a single fault dislocation in western Crete and once in 800 years if the same process happens along the Hellenic subduction zone. This article, published in the reputable international journal Nature Geoscience, serves as a reference to explain the precise location of the tsunamigenic source, the fault movement mechanism that caused the AD 365 earthquake, and the recurrence time of tsunami events in the Hellenic subduction zone. Therefore, the number of citations to this article is higher than the other articles, such as "Large boulder deposits by tsunami waves along the Ionian coast of south-eastern Sicily (Italy)" and "Geoarchaeological tsunami deposits at Palaikastro (Crete) and the Late Minoan IA eruption of Santorini" which are ranked second and third with only 127 and 123 citations respectively. The last two articles have fewer scope and implications than the first-ranked articles. For instance, the second-ranked article discusses the occurrence of calcareous boulders that might have been transported by tsunami waves in the Ionian Sea that struck the east and southeast coasts of Sicily in 1169, 1693, and 1908. However, the impact of these three tsunamis was smaller than the AD 365 tsunami that affected Greece, Italy, North Africa and Malta (De Martini et al. 2010 ; Laksono 2023 ; Scardino et al. 2021 ).
Table 2 shows that the author with the highest number of publications from 2000 to 2023 is Andreas Vött, with 17 publications, 338 citations, and an average of 19.9 citations per article. This author has a strong research collaboration network with Hanna Hadler.. Both of them are affiliated with the same institution, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Germany. Taking into account their connectedness in terms of number of citations and co-authorship in scientific publications, Andreas Vött's total link strength is 139, which is fewer than Stefano Lorito's 224 (Table 2 and Fig. 4 ). Although the number of publications of Stefano Lorito and Fabrizio Romano is smaller than Andreas Vött, the total citations of their articles are more than Andreas Vött. This is directly proportional to the total link strength of Stefano Lorito and Fabrizio Romano, which is significantly higher than Andreas Vött.
![tsunami research paper example figure 4](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig4_HTML.png)
Author occurrence and collaboration among authors in the Mediterranean tsunami research
In the period from 2000 to 2010, the four authors with the highest number of publications were Helene Hébert from Sorbonne Université, France, Gerassimos Papadopoulos from Hellenic Mediterranean University, Greece, Andreas Vött from Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Germany, and Efim Pelinovsky from the Russian Academy of Sciences. Helene Hébert and Gerassimos Papadopoulos had an equal number of publications, which was 54 documents. During this period, Stefano Lorito and Fabrizio Romano were not among the top three authors with the highest number of publications, and their names did not even make it to the top 10. When comparing the lists of the top 10 authors in the periods 2000–2010 (Table 3 ), 2011–2023 (Table 4 ), and 2000–2023 (Table 2 ), it is revealed that almost none of the authors who made it to the top 10 in the 2000–2010 period were included in the top 10 authors with the highest number of publications in the 2011–2023 or 2000–2023 periods, except for Andreas Vött, from Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Germany, who ranked 3rd in the 2000–2023 timespan. However, the top 10 authors in the 2011–2023 period were almost entirely part of the top 10 authors in the 2000–2023 period, except for Hanna Hadler from Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Germany, whose position was replaced by Alessio Piatanesi from the INGV, Italy. This notable change in rankings is evident due to the significant difference in the number of publications between the 2011–2023 period, with 245 documents, and the 2000–2010 period, with only 84 papers.
Based on co-citation, the authors who are most frequently cited in conjunction with other scholarly literature are Papadopoulos, G.A. from Greece, Tinti, S. from Italy, and Nicholas Ambraseys from the UK, with citation counts of 323, 284, and 181, respectively (Fig. 5 ). Meanwhile, the total link strength for these three authors in sequential order is 26,981, 25,471, and 18,681. Additionally, among the top ten authors are Giuseppe Mastronuzzi from Italy, Andreas Vött from Germany, Emanuela Guidoboni from Italy, Alessandra Maramai from Italy, Finn Løvholt from Norway, Anja Scheffers from Australia, and Emile Okal from France.
![tsunami research paper example figure 5](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig5_HTML.png)
Total link strength based on co-citation author. Papadopoulos, G.A. occupies the top position in this list which is indicated by the larger circle size compared to others
Institution
Based on Fig. 6 , the most significant contribution to tsunami research in the Mediterranean Sea comes from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Italy, with a total of 36 publications and has been cited by 1083 other articles (Table 5 ). The second-ranking institution is the University of Bologna, Italy, with 27 publications and 549 citations. Meanwhile, the Technical University of Crete ranks below the University of Bologna with 10 publications and 369 citations. Other institutions such as the Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche (CNR), University of Cantabria, University of Lisbon, Russian Academy of Sciences, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, and Ben Gurion University of the Negev are in the subsequent rankings with a number of publications between 5 and 15 articles and total citations range from 188 to 353. Based on the total link strength, INGV has the strongest research collaboration network compared to the others. The INGV research collaboration network comprises CNR, University of Bologna, University of Calabria, University of Granada, University of Malta, University of Palermo, University of Trieste, University of Zagreb, University of Catania, University of Patras, University of Bari, and University of Salento. These research collaborations involve multiple countries, including Italy, Spain, Malta, Greece and Croatia. Table 5 indicates that publications affiliated with institutions in Italy have the highest number of citations compared to other countries. Those institutions are INGV and the University of Bologna.
![tsunami research paper example figure 6](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig6_HTML.png)
Organizations involved in the Mediterranean Sea tsunami research and inter-institutional research cooperation density
Countries or regions
The top ten countries that have published the most articles on Mediterranean Sea tsunamis during the period from 2000 to 2023 are presented in Fig. 7 . Italy and France are the countries with the highest number of publications, followed by Spain, Greece, Germany, the United States, Turkey, England, Russia, and Japan. Although Germany has fewer publications and citations compared to France, the total link strength for both countries is the same. This indicates that both countries have equally strong research collaboration networks. Most countries in the top ten rankings are located around the Mediterranean Sea and considered developed nations. Meanwhile, Italy, with the highest number of publications, citations, and the most substantial total link strength, has a close research network with all Mediterranean countries such as Algeria, Croatia, Spain, France, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, and Portugal (Fig. 8 ). Additionally, Italy also collaborates with several developed countries in Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Americas, including the USA, Israel, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Canada. In terms of average citations per article, Greeceranks highest with a score of 32, followed by the US and France with average scores of 29 and 28, respectively. On the other hand, Italy has an average citation score of only 23, below Germany, which reaches 25.
![tsunami research paper example figure 7](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig7_HTML.png)
The top ten countries with the highest number of publications and citations in tsunami research in the Mediterranean Sea
![tsunami research paper example figure 8](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig8_HTML.png)
Tsunami research collaborations in the Mediterranean Sea conducted by different countries. Italy has the strongest research collaboration network compared to other countries
The journal that contributed the most to tsunami publications in the Mediterranean Sea is Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and Pure and Applied Geophysics with a total of 32 and 24 articles, respectfully, followed by Natural Hazards with 21 articles, Marine Geology with 18 papers, and Geophysical Journal International with 16 articles (Fig. 9 ). Meanwhile, in the aspect of total citations, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and Marine Geology occupy the first and second highest positions with 748 and 640 citations respectively. In the next position, the journals with the highest number of citations are Pure and Applied Geophysics, Geophysical Journal International, Natural Hazards, Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth, and Geophysical Research Letters, consecutively. Based on total link strength, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and Pure and Applied Geophysics rank first and second, followed by Marine Geology and Geophysical Journal International. Journals affiliated with major publishers such as Elsevier, Springer, and Wiley dominate the publication and citation ranking list compared to journals affiliated with educational and research institutions. Only Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and Geophysical Journal International, affiliated with the European Geosciences Union and Oxford University respectively, are able to top the list for a number of publications (Table 6 ).
![tsunami research paper example figure 9](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig9_HTML.png)
Network visualization of journals that have the highest number of publications. The size of the circles reflects the number of publications, with the size of the circles increasing as the number of publications grows
Based on total co-citations (Fig. 10 ), the Marine Geology journal is ranked first with 1115 co-citations and 92,827 total link strength. The difference in the number of co-citations and total link strength is very significant compared to Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences and Tectonophysics which are ranked second and third on the list. Meanwhile, the fourth and fifth rankings are filled by the Geophysical Journal International and Pure and Applied Geophysics with a total co-citation of 57,197 and 51,829. The Pure and Applied Geophysics journal, which is ranked third in total citations, is ranked 5th in the list of co-citation rankings. In Fig. 10 , it could be identified that journals with more co-citations have a larger circle size.
![tsunami research paper example figure 10](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig10_HTML.png)
The Marine Geology journal has more total co-citations than other journals, even the difference with the second-ranked Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences journal is very substantial
Foundation programs
Publication data from 2000 to 2023 reveals that tsunami research funding programs in the Mediterranean Sea predominantly derive from the European Union (EU) with a total of 57 publications, the Spanish government 21, and the German Research Foundation 20 articles, Ministry of Education, University and Research 18 documents, and Agence Nationale De La Recherche 17 papers (Table 7 ). The majority of funding originated from developed countries in Europe and the European Union.
Keywords occurrences
The most frequently occurring keywords for the entire 2000–2023 period are tsunami (Fig. 11 ), tsunami, earthquake, hazard, wave, Mediterranean, coast, tectonic, deposit, deformation, and model. The exact keywords also commonly appear in the keywords written by authors to describe the content of their articles. Other keywords such as Greece, Ionian, Aegean, evolution, Algeria, subduction, sediment, Hellenic, seismic, Santorini, and fault, were also used by authors although with lower occurrence. These keywords are commonly combined with other words to form a phrase that represents the content of the article, such as tsunami hazard, tsunami catalogue, tsunami deposits, tsunami generation, tsunami modeling, tsunami potential, 1755 Lisbon tsunami, 1856 tsunami, AD 365 tsunami, arrival time of tsunami, and geoarcheological tsunami deposits. The exact keyword occurrence was also observed in the periods 2000–2010 and 2011–2023 (Fig. 12 ) where the words tsunami, earthquake, deposit, and hazard were most prevalent to describe tsunami research in the Mediterranean Sea. However, between 2000 and 2010, there was no vulnerability keyword, even though this keyword appeared in 10 articles published between 2011 and 2023. The complete list of keywords from 2000 to 2023 is in Additional file 1 : Appendix 1.
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Keyword occurrences and total link strength related to tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea in 2000–2023. Tsunami, earthquake, and hazard are the keywords most frequently mentioned by authors
![tsunami research paper example figure 12](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig12_HTML.png)
Comparison of the number of keyword occurrences between 2000–2010 and 2011–2023
The selection of keywords tends to be more varied in documents published between 2011–2023 such as extreme wave events, p-wave moment magnitude, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, proudman resonance, near-field tsunami, numerical modelling of tsunami propagation, numerical tsunami simulation, olympia tsunami hypothesis, microfaunal analysis, maximum inundation height, tsunami vulnerability class, tsunami zoning, tyrrhenian margin, tsunamigenesis, tsunami traveltime delay, tsunami warning and hazard mitigation, tsunami scenario study, tsunami hydrodynamics and modelling, tsunami fragility functions, tsunami hazard mapping, tsunami loss assessment, tsunami early detection, tsunami evacuation, tsunami early warning systems, triangular dislocation, seismic-probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, coastal flooding, and samos 2020 earthquake and tsunami. Figure 13 , which illustrates the connection among the keywords, reveals that there are several relationships between keywords that are weak or even not connected at all. For instance, the correlation between probabilistic tsunami building vulnerability assessment-4 (PTVA-4) and tsunamigenic and seismogenic potential in the Mediterranean and connected sea, paleotsunami deposits and tsunami potential in southern Sicily, numerical simulations with paleotsunami deposits in Lebanon, tsunami run-up and coastal flooding in Libya with the 365 AD tsunami event, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment on the north coast of Libya with tsunamigenic potential in the eastern Mediterranean, and the relationship between tsunami wave amplification in the Mediterranean and lunar gravity.
![tsunami research paper example figure 13](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig13_HTML.png)
The connection among keywords that appear in the Mediterranean Sea tsunami publications. The absence of correlation lines between keywords in the figure indicates a research gap that is likely to become a new trend for future research
Thematic evolution and research topic
To explore the most prominent themes in tsunami research in the Mediterranean and connected sea, the research period was divided into two periods, 2000–2010 and 2011–2023. In the thematic map (strategic diagram), the size of the circle is proportional to the number of articles related to each research theme. According to the strategic diagram for the period 2000–2010 in Fig. 14 A, four research themes can be identified in 84 articles: tsunami, seiches, seismic hazard and Betic-Cordillera. Two of the four themes are considered motor themes (tsunami and seiches), one is highly developed and isolated (seismic hazard), and one is classified as basic (Betic-Cordillera).
![tsunami research paper example figure 14](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig14_HTML.png)
A Thematic map for the period 2000–2010 and B tsunami thematic network. The numbers in the figure indicate the number of citations
The motor tsunami theme gained the highest citations because it is related to the general topic of tsunamis in the Mediterranean and has close relevance to other themes such as earthquake, submarine landslides, coastal flooding and volcano eruption. The tsunami cluster network for the period 2000–2010 can be seen in Fig. 14 B. Topics such as the eastern Mediterranean tsunami of 365 AD (Shaw et al. 2008 ), large boulder deposits by tsunami waves (Scicchitano et al. 2007 ), geoarchaeological tsunami deposits (Bruins et al. 2008 ), numerical modelling of a landslide-generated tsunami (Assier-Rzadkiewicz et al. 2000 ), tsunami catalogs for the Eastern Mediterranean (Ambraseys and Synolakis 2010 ), the influence of the atmospheric wave velocity in the coastal amplification of meteotsunamis (Marcos et al. 2003 ) are discussed in this cluster.
The second motor theme is seiches (Fig. 15 A) related to tsunami wave propagation mechanisms; for example: tsunami waves generated by the Santorini eruption reached Eastern Mediterranean shores (Goodman-Tchernov et al. 2009 ), sensitivity analysis on relations between earthquake source rupture parameters and far-field tsunami waves: case studies in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and modeling and visualization of tsunamis: Mediterranean examples (Yalciner et al. 2007 ). Seismic-hazard (Fig. 15 B) is a highly developed but isolated theme or topic that is at a reasonable level in terms of density but are not very central and considered marginal (Mishra et al. 2023 ), e.g., the study of tsunami deposits in eastern Sicily, Italy (De Martini et al. 2010 ), tsunami deposits on the coastline of west Crete (Greece) (Scheffers and Scheffers 2007 ), and the Minoan Santorini eruption and tsunami deposits in Palaikastro (Crete): dating by geology, archaeology, 14C, and Egyptian chronology (Bruins et al. 2009 ). Meanwhile, Betic-Cordillera is classified as a basic and cross-determinant theme that has central issues but lacks density. This theme consists of only one publication and has been cited 28 times.
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Thematic network from 2000 to 2010. A Seiches thematic network and B seismic-hazard thematic network
Motor themes in the period 2011–2023 comprised tsunamis and seismic hazards (Fig. 16 A, B), e.g. publications on the topics of historical and pre-historic tsunamis in the Mediterranean and connected seas (Papadopoulos et al. 2014 ), probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea (Sørensen et al. 2012 ), probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis (Lorito et al. 2008 ), Mediterranean megaturbidite triggered by the AD 365 Crete earthquake and tsunami (Polonia et al. 2013 ), and integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies (Basili et al. 2013 ). Meteotsunami and tsunamiite themes are categorized as highly developed but isolated themes, while climate change themes are classified as emerging or declining themes. Basic and transverse themes encompass megaturbidate and equation applications in tsunami wave studies.
![tsunami research paper example figure 16](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig16_HTML.png)
A Thematic map 2011–2023. B Thematic network of seismic hazard. The numbers in the strategic diagram represent the number of documents
The evolution map consists of two columns; the left column represents the period 2000–2010, and the right column is the period 2011–2023. Based on Fig. 17 , the most robust evolutionary lines are tsunamis and the link between seiches and meteotsunamis, which are marked with thick lines, the thickness of which represents the inclusion index. The number of articles related to tsunamis has also increased; this is indicated by the size of the nodes in 2011–2023, which is more significant than 2000–2010. Tsunami is closely related to seismic hazard, meteotsunami, tsunamiite, and megaturbidite to form a unified concept. Meanwhile, climate change that emerged in the 2011–2023 period is not closely associated with any themes in 2000–2010. It implies that this theme is relatively new. Based on the WoS database, there is only one relevant publication titled climate change risk evaluation of tsunami hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Yavuz et al. 2020a ).
![tsunami research paper example figure 17](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40677-024-00269-6/MediaObjects/40677_2024_269_Fig17_HTML.png)
Evolution map of the tsunami research focused on the Mediterranean and connected sea between 2000–2010 and 2011–2023. The graph has two new themes: climate change and equation
The number of publications related to tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea increased significantly after 2004 and 2005 from only one article to over ten articles. The same phenomenon also occurred after 2011 when the number of publications reached more than 20 documents. Likely, the publication factor of tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea was also driven by two major tsunami events in the world at the beginning of the twenty-first century, namely the tragedy of the Indian Ocean tsunami on December 26, 2004, that killed approximately 200,000 people and caused substantial economic losses, especially in Southeast and South Asian countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives (Ioualalen et al. 2007 ; Rodriguez et al. 2006 ; Wang and Liu 2006 ). The same event also took place in 2011 when a tsunami hit Tohoku, Japan resulting in thousands of deaths and triggering the leakage of the Fukushima nuclear reactor. The economic losses from this event amounted to millions of dollars. The Fukushima nuclear reactor leak also triggered another tragedy as the waters around the power plant were contaminated with radioactive substances and thousands of residents were forced to evacuate to safer places (Goto et al. 2011 ; Matanle 2011 ; Mori et al. 2011 ).
The existence of these two major tsunami events motivated scientists to conduct research related to the potential for tsunamis in various other parts of the world that are considered to be earthquake and tsunami-prone zones, one of which is the Mediterranean region which indeed has several records of earthquakes and tsunamis in the past. This phenomenon is in line with Chiu and Ho ( 2007 ), Jain et al. ( 2021 ), and Suprapto et al. ( 2022 ), which state that tsunami studies in various parts of the world experienced a sharp increase after the 2004 tsunami tragedy. Although the number of publications each year has increased, the number of citations to articles published after 2012 tended to decrease. This trend might be attributed to the position of a publication theme on the strategic diagram. Suppose a theme has high centrality and density. In that case, it will be highly relevant to other themes, allowing it to develop properly, and the article is more likely to be cited by other articles (Börner et al. 2018 ; Cahlik 2000 ).
Although from early 2020 until the end of 2021 the world was affected by Covid-19, which limited outdoor activities, including research, the number of tsunami publications in the Mediterranean Sea did not decline; in fact, it rose significantly compared to 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.The possible factor that contributed to the number of publications continuing to increase despite the Covid-19 restrictions was that the data collection needed for research purposes had been carried out before the Covid-19 pandemic began (Miki et al. 2020 ; Rashid and Yadav 2020 ; Saraswat and Saraswat 2020 ). Furthermore, the availability of several tsunami wave analysis software (Delft3D, Delft Dashboard, Flow-3D, COMCOT, and Mike 21) and programming languages such as MATLAB, Python, Fortran, or C + + (Franco et al. 2020 ; Laksono et al. 2020 ; Scardino et al. 2021 ; Xu et al. 2022 ) can serve as supportive tools for publications, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic..
Although tsunami research in the Mediterranean Sea has involved many European, American, Asian, and even Australian countries, developed countries such as Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Greece, the USA, and England tend to produce more publications than developing countries. Stable and large sources of research funding are a factor in the number of publications in developed countries compared to developing countries even though the study locations are further from these developed countries than developing countries around the Mediterranean Sea such as Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Croatia, Albania, Turkey, and Libya. Moreover, developed countries have relatively more complete research facilities and a stronger and broader collaboration network among researchers from various institutions compared to developing countries (Babeyko et al. 2022 ; Lorito et al. 2021 ; Michelini et al. 2016 ). The number of citations for publications with authors from developed countries such as Italy, Germany, and Greece is much higher than those with authors from developing countries. The complexity and broader scope of the discussion affect the impact factor of the publication. The high impact factor of an article enhances the opportunity for the number of citations because the relevance to case studies and other topics is still reliable (Elkins et al. 2010 ; Emmer 2018 ; Finardi 2013 ). Additionally, articles that have novelty and significant contributions also boost the probability of citations (Neelam and Sood 2021 ; Sagar et al. 2010 ).
Basically, the keywords that often appear in publications 2000–2010, 2011–2023, and throughout the 2000–2023 period are similar; for example, the use of the keywords tsunami; Mediterranean; earthquake; hazard; evolution; coast; and deposit (Additional file 1 : Appendix 1, Figs. 11 , and 12 ) which always occupy the top position in the ranking list of keywords that are often mentioned by authors. However, there are more alternative keywords in the 2011–2023 publications compared to the 2000–2010 period, such as Lampedusa (Distefano et al. 2022 ); lagoon; risk mitigation (Necmioglu et al. 2023 ); risk reduction (Lorito et al. 2021 ); Russian coast (Nikonov et al. 2018 ); escarpment (Ventura et al. 2014 ); epistemic uncertainty (Basili et al. 2013 ); evacuation modelling (Scheer et al. 2012 ); experimental validation (Solovieva et al. 2021 ); fault parameter estimation (Ulutaş 2020 ); historical database (Larroque et al. 2012 ); Iberian Peninsula (Álvarez-Gómez et al. 2011 ); climate change (Yavuz et al. 2020a ); semi-analytical modelling (Scala et al. 2020 ); Tunisia (Khadraoui et al. 2018 ); Sfax coastline (Kohila et al. 2021 ); social risk analysis (Yavuz et al. 2020a ); Tyrrhenian Sea (Dignan et al. 2020 ); coastal planning (Lorito et al. 2021 ); coastal vulnerability (Saleh and Allaert 2014 ); coastal evolution (May et al. 2012 ); coastal erosion (Tyuleneva et al. 2018 ); probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (Zaytsev et al. 2019 ); Yammouneh fault (Shtienberg et al. 2020 ); PTVA-3 model (Batzakis et al. 2020 ); and PTVA-4 model (Batzakis et al. 2020 ).
The emergence of new keywords is aligned with the expanding discussion of the topic in terms of research objectives, geographical scope of case studies and methodology, for example the use of the keyword climate change to describe coastal risk analysis research that integrates the phenomenon of sea level rise due to climate change with the potential for tsunamis triggered by earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Yavuz et al. 2020a ). The occurrence of country keywords such as Tunisia dan Lampedusa (Distefano et al. 2022 ; Khadraoui et al. 2018 ) as well as regional names such as Tyrrhenian Sea and Sfax coastline (Dignan et al. 2020 ; Kohila et al. 2021 ) reveals that the geographical scope of the case studies has enlarged beyond Greece, Italy, Portugal, Egypt, France, Turkey, Cyprus and Spain, which appear several times as keywords in the list of publications for the period 2000–2010 and 2011–2023 (Altinok et al. 2009 ; Fokaefs and Papadopoulos 2007 ; Gerardi et al. 2012 ; Papadimitriou and Karakostas 2008 ; Scheffers 2006 ). The topic of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in 2011–2023 has also become more prevalent, with two keywords missing in the previous decade such as PTVA-3 and PTVA-4 (Batzakis et al. 2020 ).
Research trends in coastal risk analysis, evacuation modeling, tsunami early warning systems and tsunami mitigation are also growing (Khadraoui et al. 2018 ; Ozel et al. 2011 ; Necmioğlu et al. 2021 ; Yavuz et al. 2020a ). This indicates that tsunami research not only addresses potential hazards but also how communities around vulnerable areas can minimize the worst impacts of tsunami disasters. In topics related to tsunami mitigation, the keyword social risk analysis also appears, implying that the discussion of tsunami wave propagation is not only related to the extent of inundation distance or the height of the tsunami run-up (Laksono 2023 ), but also expands to the impact of tsunami waves on the social and economic life of the community (Yavuz et al. 2020b ).
Research topics for 2011–2023 also evolved towards risk assessment of infrastructure and building resilience to earthquake and tsunami disasters, characterized by the emergence of the keyword building vulnerability, which previously was not present in the 2000–2010 publications (Batzakis et al. 2020 ; Triantafyllou et al. 2019 ). Although the scope of research topics for 2011–2023 has expanded, topics related to rupture fault analysis, paleotsunami sediment analysis, and tsunami wave propagation modeling continue to emerge and develop (Laksono 2023 ; Nemati et al. 2019 ; Salama et al. 2018 ) because these topics are classified as motor themes based on the strategic diagram (Fig. 16 A). In the future, topics classified as motor themes such as seismic hazard, which have high centrality and density, will continue to thrive because they are relevant to other topics (Cobo et al. 2012 ; Mishra et al. 2023 ) such as seismoturbidite, active-faults, historical earthquakes, tsunami modeling, sedimentary-feature, and catalog (Fig. 16 B). This is highlighted by the increasing number of publications as seen in the evolution map Fig. 17 .
The number of tsunami publications in the Mediterranean has generally been growing, especially after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and the 2018 Palu tsunami. Despite restrictions on outdoor activities during the Covid-19 pandemic, the number of publications has not declined and even increased to reach 28 articles in 2021. The number of publications in 2021 is the highest in the past two decades. The contribution of European developed countries in the Mediterranean tsunami publications is significantly higher than that of developing countries around the Mediterranean. Journals affiliated with major publishers such as Elsevier, Wiley, and Springer have contributed the highest number of publications and citations compared to other journal publishers.
The themes describing tsunami research in the Mediterranean between 2000 and 2023 can be divided into four types based on centrality and density. The first type is motor themes that are very well developed and important for building research fields such as tsunami simulations, early-warning systems, paleotsunami and seismic hazard. The second type is specific themes that are well developed with other keywords internally but have low relevance with different keywords externally, for instance, meteotsunami, seiches, gravity-waves and tsunamiite. The third type is less developed and relevant themes, representing either emerging or disappearing themes such as climate change. The fourth type is a theme that exhibits high relevance to other keywords beyond its network but lacks evolvement because it consists of general and primary topics such as megaturbidite and equation.
Generally, the most used keywords in the 2000–2010 and 2011–2023 publications are similar, for example tsunami, earthquake, deposit, coast, waves and hazard. However, the keywords in the 2011–2023 publications are more complex, the scope of discussion is more extensive, the geographical distribution of case studies is more widespread, and the research methods used are also more complex, e.g. risk mitigation, climate change, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, Yammouneh fault, Tunisia, Lampedusa, coastal erosion, coastal planning, semi-analytical modeling, fault parameter estimation, historical database, social risk analysis, Tyrrhenian Sea, coastal evolution, building vulnerability, PTVA-3 and PTVA-4. Research topics for 2011–2023 are more diverse compared to 2000–2010, as the focus is not only on potential hazard assessment but also on disaster mitigation, building and infrastructure resilience analysis, and the impact of coastal tsunami wave propagation on the social and economic life of communities. Nonetheless, topics concerning tsunami deposits, tsunami propagation simulation, and earthquake–tsunami potential in the Mediterranean and connected sea remain thriving as indicated by the increasing number of publications compared to previous decades.
Availability of data and materials
Data and materials are available upon request.
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The authors would like to thank ÚNKP for providing a research grant for tsunami research in the Mediterranean Sea under research grant number ÚNKP-23-3-II-PTE-1849. We also thank the University of Pécs for funding the publication of this article. The authors thank Polina Bochkareva for encouraging the first author to complete this article.
Open access funding provided by University of Pécs. This research was fully funded by ÚNKP with research grant number ÚNKP-23-3-II-PTE-1849. Publication costs will be covered by the University of Pécs, Hungary.
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Laksono, F.x.A.T., Mishra, M., Mulyana, B. et al. Exploring the Mediterranean tsunami research landscape: scientometric insights and future prospects. Geoenviron Disasters 11 , 6 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-024-00269-6
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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-024-00269-6
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Tsunami Research—A Review and New Concepts
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This paper provides an overall review of tsunami research, mainly in the detection and measurement of tsunami waves in the deep ocean. New tsunami magnitude scales will be discussed; it will be shown that the travel-time charts presently in use operationally by Tsunami Warning Centers in Honolulu and Palmer contain substantial errors. The travel times computed from these charts are mostly greater than the observed travel times, which is a very dangerous situation from a tsunami warning point of view. Potential for improvement of travel-time charts and correlations between related parameters will be discussed.
There are several seismic gaps around the rim of the Pacific Ocean which are potentially tsunamigenic. Concern is mounting that major tsunami-causing earthquakes may occur in the near future in the Shumagin seismic gap of the Aleutian Islands, in Sanriku (Japan), in the Peru-Chile trench area, and in the Juan de Fuca off British Columbia and Washington state. Comments will be made about the possible tsunamis from these earthquakes.
Finally, attention will be focussed on some new concepts that might help substantially in the tsunami warning system, for example, lateral waves. Particular attention will be paid to the problem of how to acquire observational data on the deep water signature of a tsunami.
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Linking affected community and academic knowledge: a community-based participatory research framework based on a Shichigahama project
- Shuji Seto 1 ,
- Junko Okuyama 2 ,
- Toshiki Iwasaki 3 ,
- Yu Fukuda 4 ,
- Toru Matsuzawa 5 ,
- Kiyoshi Ito 6 ,
- Hiroki Takakura 7 , 8 ,
- Kenjiro Terada 8 , 9 &
- Fumihiko Imamura 9 , 10
Scientific Reports volume 14 , Article number: 19910 ( 2024 ) Cite this article
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Earthquakes that cause extensive damage occur frequently in Japan, the most recent being the Noto Peninsula earthquake on January 1, 2024. To facilitate such a recovery, we introduce a community-based participatory research program implemented through cooperation between universities and local communities after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. In this project, the university and the town of Shichigahama, one of the affected areas, collaborated to hold annual workshops in the target area, which evolved into a climate monitoring survey. Even in Japan, where disaster prevention planning is widespread, various problems arise in the process of emergency response, recovery and reconstruction, and building back better when disasters occur. As is difficult for residents and local governments to solve these problems alone, it is helpful when experts participate in the response process. In this study, we interviewed town hall and university officials as representatives of local residents regarding this project and discussed their mutual concerns. The community-based participatory research framework developed in the Shichigahama project could be used in the recovery from the Noto Peninsula Earthquake as well as in future reconstruction and disaster management projects.
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Advancing neighbourhood climate action: opportunities, challenges and way ahead
Introduction.
Japan is a country often subject to natural disasters. In the Noto region of Ishikawa Prefecture, earthquakes (in the crust) have been on the increase since around 2018, and seismic activity has been active since December 2020, and became more active around May 2023. The area of earthquake occurrence has expanded with further increase in seismic activity. The largest earthquake to date was an M7.6 earthquake on January 1, 2024 (depth of 16 km, intensity 7 in Wajima City and Shiga Town, Hakui County) 1 . Support for victims in the affected areas is currently being provided by the government and medical personnel, among others. The reconstruction of the Noto Peninsula following the earthquake will be led by local governments 2 . The recovery process requires interventions that focus on the participation of the affected communities and the strengthening of local resources 3 .
Community-based participatory research (CBPR) has been identified as an important approach to promote recovery from and resilience after disasters 4 . Several regions have successfully identified and addressed disaster recovery issues through community-based approaches 5 . Globally, the importance of and need for community-based research is increasingly recognized in the context of disasters such as the Iraq War 6 , landslides 7 , floods 8 , hurricanes 9 , 10 , 11 , and bushfires 12 , 13 . In the Japanese context, awareness of the importance of CBPR has increased since the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake 14 , 15 and has been reported in relation to the Kumamoto earthquake 16 and floods 17 (Fig. 1 A). In general, recovery from natural disasters such as major earthquakes take about ten years 18 , 19 . The period from the time of the disaster to the year in which the CBPR was implemented is shown: Fig. 1 b shows the survey for the non-Japan cases, and Fig. 1 c shows the survey for the Japan cases. As can be seen in Figs. 1 b,c, most studies were conducted within ten years of disasters and many were launched within a few years after the disaster. Conducting CBPR within a few years after a disaster is suitable for examining problems and the progress of reconstruction in the acute and mid-term post-disaster period, but a comprehensive evaluation of reconstruction is not possible because the affected area is still in the process of recovery.
![tsunami research paper example figure 1](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-024-70813-9/MediaObjects/41598_2024_70813_Fig1_HTML.png)
( A ): Examples of the use of community participatory surveys in disaster recovery. ( B ): Time elapsed between the occurrence of disasters around the world and the implementation of community participatory surveys. ( C ): Time elapsed between the occurrence of disasters in Japan and the implementation of community participatory surveys.
Here, we introduce the CBPR efforts conducted by the Tohoku University Core Research Cluster for Disaster Science in the town of Shichigahama, one of the areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, eight to nine years after the disaster. The Core Research Cluster of Disaster Science is a new discipline established at Tohoku University, a designated national university. The discipline was born in June 2017 in recognition of the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to hazards and recovery 20 . The research cluster is composed of eight institutions: the Graduate School of Arts and Letters; Graduate School of Natural Science; Graduate School of Environmental Science; Institute of Development, Aging and Cancer; International; Research Institute of Disaster Science; Center for Northeast Asian Studies; and the Hospital and School of Medicine 21 . The research cluster has two overall purposes: (1) to develop and systematize disaster science and (2) to contribute to support for recovery, reconstruction, and building back better in affected areas; disaster risk reduction and mitigation; and the development of human resources in international societies 22 .
The research cluster recognizes the importance of the CBPR approach in the field of hazards and recovery. As Tohoku University has long had a research base in the town of Shichigahama, which faces Sendai Bay, the approach has been applied to studying seaweed producers and their lifestyles in the town for a year and a half 23 . Additionally, Plaza et al. analyzed the reproductive performance of female specimens of black sea bream collected from Shichigahama from October 2000 to March 2001 24 . Following the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Disaster Psychiatry Department at Tohoku University and the International Research Institute of Disaster Science collaborated with the Shichigahama Town Hall over ten years to observe and improve community health 25 , 26 , 27 .
After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the Shichigahama Town–Tohoku University partnership was developed in the context of this larger movement utilizing CBPR approaches to intervention research in recovery and disaster prevention. Figure 2 A shows earthquakes and affected prefectures in Japan as a whole, and Fig. 2 B shows the town of Shichigahama in Miyagi Prefecture and the areas inundated by the Great East Japan Earthquake tsunami. The International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, has been involved in mental health activities in the town of Shichigahama since the Great East Japan Earthquake 28 , 29 . Annual surveys were conducted over a ten-year period from November 2011, eight months after the disaster, to 2020 for residents of Shichigahama Town (2,282 adults; 106 minors) whose houses had been severely damaged or partially or entirely destroyed. The results of the posttraumatic stress reaction survey 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 and psychological distress as indicators of mental disorder are shown in Fig. 2 (Panels C and D). The percentage of respondents with a posttraumatic stress reaction above a certain level (score of 25 or higher) on the Impact of Event Scale-Revised 34 and the percentage of those with a relatively mild posttraumatic stress reaction (score of less than 25) are shown in Fig. 2 C. The proportion of those showing a certain level of posttraumatic stress reaction peaked at 32% in FY2011 and 33% in FY2012, with a gradual improvement in FY2013 and a decrease to 6% in FY2020. Psychological distress was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale 35 . Figure 2 D shows the percentages and trends for each of the four severity levels. The proportion of respondents who scored less than 5 points and were in relatively good mental health was 50% in FY 2011 and increased from FY 2012 to 2014; after leveling off in FY 2015–2017, it increased again from FY 2018 onward.
![tsunami research paper example figure 2](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-024-70813-9/MediaObjects/41598_2024_70813_Fig2_HTML.png)
( A ): Earthquakes in Japan and affected prefectures from 1995 to 2024. The base map was created with Frame illust, 2014 software, a free opensource software https://frame-illust.com/?cat=256 , color-coding Japanese regions. ( B ): Damage to Shichigahama Town by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Left inset: Japan and the location of the epicenter of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Right inset: Areas of Shichigahama Town flooded by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Map background image source and license: Maps were created using ArcGIS Pro (ver. 3.3.1, https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-pro/overview ) and the prefecture level boundaries of Japan in ArcGIS Hub. ArcGIS are the intellectual property of Esri and are used herein under license. Copyright (c) 2024 Esri Inc. All rights reserved. For more information about Esri software, please visit www.esri.com . Fukkou Shien Chosa Archive: Shichigahama town – Inundated Area, City Bureau of the Land, Infrastructure and Transportation Ministry of Japan and the Center for Spatial Information Science of the University of Tokyo (2012) (in Japanese) http://fukkou.csis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ , Accessed Aug 2023. ( C,D ): The results of the post-traumatic stress reaction survey and psychological distress as indicators of mental disorder (modified from Tomita et al. 2020 and Hamaie et al. 2022).
This study aimed to assess whether CBPR engaging affected communities and professionals improves their resilience to disasters long after the disaster has passed. This paper first introduces the Shichigahama Town project, a collaborative study with Tohoku University focusing on the town of Shichigahama after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Next, we present the results of the analysis of CBPR conducted after the disaster, a discussion of CBPR, and the conclusions of this study.
Relationship between Shichigahama and academia
Overview of shichigahama town.
The town of Shichigahama faces the sea on three sides and is located on a peninsula. The population was 18,358 as of June 1, 2023. The fishing industry has flourished there since ancient times, with nori (seaweed) cultivation being a representative basic industry of the region. Abalone, sea urchins, and fish are abundantly available in the region.
As a result of the tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, 36.4% of the urban area was inundated and suffered enormous damage, and there were 99 fatalities (Fig. 2 B). The maximum height of the tsunami inundation was 12.1 m. After this incident, the Shichigahama Town Earthquake Reconstruction Basic Policy was formulated on April 25, 2011, aiming to “create a comfortable and livable town in which people can live in harmony with nature, taking into account safety and security.” In addition, the Disaster Recovery Early Basic Plan (2011–2015) was formulated on November 8, 2011. Based on this, the policy and priority actions for recovery were formulated. On April 6, 2012, a policy on land use rules for the affected areas was formulated, dividing the town and use into four categories and presenting their reconstruction measures.
Shichigahama town workshop
A practical workshop was developed for Shichigahama Town Hall and the Tohoku University Disaster Science Designated National College Core Research Cluster. The first workshop was held on September 12–13, 2019, with twenty-three participants from Tohoku University and six from the town hall. This was followed by the second (September 24, 2020) and third (September 17, 2021) workshops, which were held remotely to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
The first workshop introduced Shichigahama Town Hall staff and Tohoku University researchers to the research related to Shichigahama Town that Tohoku University had conducted up to that point. On the morning of the second day, the staff of Shichigahama Town Hall presented the disaster prevention facilities. The Tohoku University researchers traversed Shichigahama Town to improve their understanding of the facilities by entering the shelters and checking the breakwater height. In the workshop that followed, the researchers discussed potential methods for improving Shichigahama Town's resilience to disasters. The content of the workshop was shared by the researchers and Shichigahama Town Hall (Fig. 3 ).
![tsunami research paper example figure 3](https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-024-70813-9/MediaObjects/41598_2024_70813_Fig3_HTML.png)
( A ): Three layers of the Shichigahama Town Project. Overview of the Shichigahama Town project over a three-year period from 2019 to 2021. ( B ): Summary of findings related to the interview. Summary of the Shichigahama Town project findings identified using the grounded theory method coding paradigm. Green boxes indicate the period; light blue boxes indicate what was done during the period.
To answer our research questions, we used a qualitative approach, specifically the grounded theory method (GTM) for data collection and analysis 36 , 37 . The GTM is an inductive approach commonly used with participant observation and interview data 38 . Interviews were the primary source of data: from January 12–March 28, 2022, the authors interviewed six officials from Shichigahama Town and the designated national college, the Core Research Cluster for Disaster Science, and staff from Tohoku University.Table 1 shows the roles of the interviewees, indicating their function within the project in the case of town officials and their specialty in the case of university faculty. Supplementary file 1 shows what they were doing at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
The interviews focused on the respondents’ satisfaction with the workshop in Shichigahama Town. We asked about the community’s general perception of what they expected from disaster preparedness and response, what information they needed, why they needed information and how they wished to receive it, and their thoughts about a future collaboration between the community and the university. Interviews were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. Qualitative analysis (including coding and note-taking) followed the axiality coding paradigm according to the GTM 39 .
Ethics approval and consent to participate
All methods including experiments, analyses, and interviews were performed in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University (approval number: 2021–039). All experimental protocols were approved by the Ethics Committee of the International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, and all human participants gave informed consent.
Theme 1: first workshop as a collaboration between the community and academia
Regarding the first Shichigahama workshop, Tohoku University faculty members said, “From the very beginning, I thought Shichigahama was a bit of a mystery, and as I mentioned at the time, we were talking about Tohoku and Japan at the most. Even in Miyagi Prefecture, we were only talking about the Miyagi earthquake, and I did not know what we could talk about or what we could contribute at the municipal level” (Professor B, Tohoku University); “Shichigahama had a major tsunami disaster, but very few weather-related disasters, so it was difficult to find a connection in terms of what we could do” (Professor C, Tohoku University). A Shichigahama Town official said, “No, when we were first approached, one of the things we were wondering about was what we could do. It would be nice if we were in a situation where we could get some advice” (Shichigahama Town Official B).
Regarding the first Shichigahama town workshop, one participant said, “We met with everyone and had the mayor and other stakeholders with us, and we asked them, ‘What are you doing?’ We brainstormed about what we were doing and how we were going to work together, and we compiled a list of keywords” (Professor A, Tohoku University).
At the same workshop, Staff Member A said, “I accompanied the teachers on their site visit. I was glad to guide them and tell them that although the area was damaged at the time, it has recovered to what it is today.” Staff Member F said, “I was happy to be able to show them around the site and tell them that although the area was damaged at the time, it has now been restored. That was very reassuring. We were very grateful to be able to talk directly to people who specialize in this kind of research.” Staff Member B said, “At the time, we felt that we could not enter the site.”
During the first Shichigahama town workshop, Tohoku University teachers said: “We were able to hear many things directly from the staff at that time, weren’t we? It’s not often you get a chance to hear such real voices” (Professor D, Tohoku University) and “The local government officials gave presentations that gave me a sense of fulfillment that they had already done what they could do, and I felt both envious and distressed” (Professor B, Tohoku University).
Theme 2: one example introduced from the “weather observation equipment” workshop
After the first workshop, Professor B said, “Apparently, there is no Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) there. If there is an AMeDAS, we could check it. By contrast, since there is no AMeDAS, I thought it would be worthwhile to see,” and the weather observation equipment was installed in Shichigahama Town. According to data reported by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the number of people transported to emergency hospitals for heat stroke in Japan during the period from June to September has increased significantly since 2010, with 92,710 in 2018, a particularly extremely hot summer, followed by 66,869 in 2019 and 64,869 in 2020. Although the town of Shichigahama has made progress in reconstruction after the Great East Japan Earthquake, this workshop found that the town had not been able to observe the recent weather disasters.
At the second and third Shichigahama Town symposiums, Professor C had a dialogue with town officials: “We made contacts to talk with local people. Then, on the third occasion, they told us many stories from the other side. When I explained that this is how the data shows the weather in Shichigahama Town, it did not appear unusual to them; but since it is my town’s weather observation, they were interested in it. Then they would mention all sorts of problems.” “At the third Shichigahama Town workshop, we were told that although there are no weather disasters, there are two problems: one is that high levees have been built, and the water rises inside, causing problems such as inland flooding. As for global warming, it seems that the types of fish that can be caught are changing rapidly.”
Shichigahama Town Staff Member A said of the weather observation equipment, “We had it installed on the rooftop. I was personally informed of this at the time, and the current department is the one that orders contractors to remove typhoon rains and snow, like today, and to spread snow-melting agents. So, we are using them for such things.”
Regarding the weather observation, Professor C said, “It would be great if the town of Shichigahama said they would maintain the weather measurement equipment in Shichigahama as well. The one for the sea is going to be discontinued. I wanted them to provide information to tourists and other visitors, but they did not raise awareness to that extent. Of course, there is the budget problem as well.” Professor D said, “That person has been there all along taking measurements and local data. In a sense, he must have a close relationship with Shichigahama, but I don’t see what kind of communication or involvement he has with the residents and the local government office.”
Theme 3: evaluation of the Shichigahama town project
Professor A said, “First of all, to listen to the real needs of the people in the town hall, we need to talk to them a little more frequently, rather than just meeting them at events, and it is still difficult to make progress without someone who understands the situation.” He continued, “Even now, people are looking for ways to make Shichigahama a better community. Even back then, we had several goals, such as valuing health and history, and because Shobuta-beach is so attractive, I wish I could have contributed a little more here.”
Professor E said, “There was talk of gender, and there was talk of weather; both are important, but I’m not sure where the integral part of what we are doing with Shichigahama lies. I think it would be fine to say that we are taking action with regard to both areas. I was a little unclear about that when I participated last year.”
The Shichigahama Town staff said: “Although we understand what we are doing now internally, I really feel that we need to let the residents know more about what we are doing” (Staff Member A); “I was hoping that people would learn more about the self-help part I mentioned earlier while listening to those workshops. I think it is difficult to connect with the public if they are not able to participate in the workshops” (Staff Member B).
Future development from the perspective of Shichigahama town and Tohoku university staff
Shichigahama Town Official F said, “Surprisingly, even if the administrative part can be organized at the government office, it is hard to have this kind of analytical ability.” “What about the review? We can compare with other municipalities, but I wonder if there is a part of the verification of recovery that can be done objectively; not immediately, but after 10 or 20 years,” said Shichigahama Town official E.
“Of course, the residents of the city are involved in this project. Nevertheless, I wondered if it would be possible to hold workshops or trainings for elementary and junior high school students instead of disaster preparedness or disaster education or teaching children the concept of disaster preparedness,” said Shichigahama Town Official A. “I still think it would be best if they looked at Shichigahama and then got that kind of advice,” said Shichigahama Town Official D. “I hope some of the content will be useful for residents, and I also hope there will be some advice for the government and county disaster management associations that run the evacuation centers,” said Shichigahama Town Official C.
Tohoku University Staff Member C said, “It will be very important to do so after a disaster has occurred to get into the community. Shichigahama’s experience was good. It was very interesting because it was an approach that I did not know much about.”
The population of the four cities and towns in Okunoto 40 , which were severely damaged by the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, is as follows: Wajima City: 23,192 (December 1, 2023); Suzu City: 12,610 (November 30, 2023); Noto Town: 15,187 (January 1, 2024); Anamizu Town: 7326 (December 1, 2023). All of these cities and towns are recognized as “wholly depopulated” under the “Act on Special Measures Concerning Support for Sustainable Development of Depopulated Areas.” A municipality is considered depopulated if it meets the requirements below a certain level in terms of population decline rate, ratio of older adults, and financial strength index. Shichigahama Town had an estimated population of 17,429 on December 1, 2023, and had a day–night population ratio of 65.0% in the 2010 census, the lowest of any municipality in Japan. Thus, the population of the Noto earthquake-stricken area and the town of Shichigahama are similar, and we believe that CBPR targeting the Shichigahama town for reconstruction after the Great East Japan Earthquake may be helpful for Noto.
Flicker 41 stated about CBPR, “It can (and often does) benefit everyone involved in the research process. But the benefits do not come without significant investment, nor are they necessarily equitably distributed.” This study evaluates CBPR conducted in Shichigahama and uses the GTM to analyze the data from twelve semi-structured interviews with CBPR recipients and implementers. Professor C, who participated in this survey, felt the need to convey academic knowledge to the general public in an easy-to-understand manner through the Shichigahama Town project and published a book intended for that population after the project was completed. The Shichigahama Town staff felt that having the support of university staff could make the explanations they provided to the general public more persuasive. However, questions remain regarding the sustainability of these and other effects. By contrast, the benefits secured by the new partnership between the university and the community may be seen as more sustainable.
Professor C and his colleagues in CBPR for the Shichigahama Town project found evidence that weather observations were not conducted in Shichigahama Town. This included problems such as not knowing the actual weather in Shichigahama Town because of the use of the nearby AMeDAS. Academic researchers have an ethical obligation to equip the community with the tools needed to sustain an intervention or become successful change agents beyond the project period 42 . During this project in Shichigahama Town, two meteorological instruments were adapted under a grant from the designated national college, the Core Research Cluster of Disaster Science. Unfortunately, the grant has since expired, and only one instrument was retained in Shichigahama Town. After establishing a community and academic partnership with a common goal, obtaining grants to fund the academic and community teams is necessary 42 . Academics have been made aware of the fact that community partner organizations often have little additional funding or resources to contribute to unfunded pilot projects, and this may be one such example.
There are no reports of cases in which CBPR has been used for post-disaster recovery and disaster prevention in Japan. In Nepal, community-led reconstruction activities have been conducted at various monuments immediately after earthquakes, and they have played an important role in preserving and maintaining cultural heritage 43 , 44 . Previous studies in Japan have used the CBPR approach to identify community health needs 45 , 46 or to understand community perceptions of a particular health problem 47 . However, there are no reports of cases in which CBPR has been used for post-disaster recovery and disaster prevention in Japan.
One of the challenges for younger faculty actively involved in the community during CBPR is the time the process requires. This is particularly relevant for careers in CBPR, where it can (reportedly) take years to build and secure trust between academic and community partners 48 . Only one (Faculty F) of the three young faculty members on our academic team from the first term remained for the second and third terms.
An evaluation of CBPR efforts should include a community assessment 49 :
(1) Have new community structures or problem-solving mechanisms been introduced?; (2) Have new leaders emerged?; and (3) Is there evidence of a greater sense of community ownership or citizen participation? 50 , 51 , 52 . Suggestions for the future (disaster education for elementary and middle school students; direct communication with citizens) were made in this project, but the CBPR assessment scores indicate that they have not yet been achieved. One reason the suggestions have not been fully implemented may be related to COVID-19. During the second and third phases of the pandemic, scientists could not visit the communities directly, but were involved remotely.
Limitations
Our study used interviews with both Shichigahama Town officials and university faculty to test the effectiveness of CBPR in the Shichigahama Town workshop project. Although interviews with local residents would ensure the generalizability of our results regarding the effectiveness of CBPR, the second and third Shichigahama Town workshops and our interviews were conducted at a time when human contact was restricted to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, we focused on interviews with Shichigahama town officials who accepted the CBPR because they were unable to have contact with the general population. The fact that the evaluator was a town employee rather than a local resident could introduce bias, but we mitigated this by ensuring there was sufficient interview time. (Supplementary table)
Conclusions
The application of CBPR principles is essential to translate knowledge into sustainable community-level action through empowerment and collaboration. Further long-term research using the CBPR approach is needed to provide additional evidence of returns, which will facilitate investment and broader implementation.
Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available owing to privacy and ethical restrictions but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Shichigahama Town Hall in Miyagi Prefecture for their cooperation.
This work was supported by Innovative Research Program on Suicide Countermeasure Grant Number JPSCIRS20220301.
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Conception or design of the work: S.S., J.O., F.I.; Data cleaning: T.H., T.K.; Data analysis and interpretation: I.T., F.Y.; Drafting the article: S.S., J.O.: Critical revision of the article: M.T., I.K.; All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Seto, S., Okuyama, J., Iwasaki, T. et al. Linking affected community and academic knowledge: a community-based participatory research framework based on a Shichigahama project. Sci Rep 14 , 19910 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70813-9
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Tsunami Modeling and Research
The objective of tsunami modeling research is to develop of tsunamis propagating through the ocean and striking coastal communities. The primary responsibility of the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) is to provide assistance to the Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC) in the form of Forecast Modeling software products specifically designed to support the Tsunami Warning Center’s forecasting operations. In addition to this, the NCTR has traditionally been committed to Inundation Modeling to assist coastal communities in their efforts to assess the risk, and mitigate the potential of tsunami hazard The (Method of Splitting Tsunami) model, developed by Titov of PMEL and Synolakis of University of Southern California, is the standard model used at the NCTR. MOST is a suite of numerical simulation codes capable of simulating three processes of tsunami evolution: earthquake, transoceanic propagation, and inundation of dry land. | of . . |
Forecast Modeling
The main objective of a forecast model is to provide an estimate of wave arrival time, wave height and inundation area immediately after a tsunami event. Tsunami forecast models are run in real time while a tsunami is propagating in the open ocean, consequently they are designed to perform under very stringent time limitations.
Given the time constraints of this type of study, the process of computing the three stages of tsunami modeling, namely, wave generation, propagation and inundation has been expedited by generating a database of pre-computed scenarios . The pre-computed database contains information about tsunami propagation in the open ocean from a multitude of potential sources. When a tsunami event occurs, an initial source is selected from the pre-computed database. In the initial stages of the tsunami, this selection is based only on the available seismic information for the earthquake event. As the wave propagates across the ocean and successively reaches the DART systems these report the recorded sea level information back to the TWCs which, in turn, process the information and produce a new and more refined estimate of the tsunami source. The result is an increasingly accurate forecast of the tsunami that can be used to issue, watches, warnings or evacuations.
When an event similar to one of the pre-computed scenarios occurs, the available propagation information is used to compute the last stage of the study, wave inundation.
Inundation Modeling
An inundation modeling study attempts to recreate the tsunami generation in deep or coastal waters, wave propagation to the impact zone and inundation along the study area. To reproduce the correct wave dynamics during the inundation computations high resolution bathymetric and topographic grids are used in this type of study. The high quality bathymetric and topographic data sets needed for development of inundation maps require maintenance and upgrades as better data becomes available and coastal changes occur.
Inundation studies can be conducted taking a probabilistic approach in which multiple tsunami scenarios are considered, and an assessment of the vulnerability of the coast to tsunami hazard is evaluated, or they may focus on the effect of a particular ‘worst case scenario” and assess the impact of such a particularly high impact event on the areas under investigation.
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View Issue TOC Volume 36, No. 2–3 Pages 175 - 185
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50 Years of PMEL Tsunami Research and Development
By email: [email protected] affiliation: was at noaa pacific marine environmental laboratory, seattle, wa, usa search for more papers by this author ">eddie bernard , affiliation: pacific northwest national laboratory, seattle, wa, usa search for more papers by this author ">christian meinig , affiliation: noaa pacific marine environmental laboratory, seattle, wa, usa search for more papers by this author ">vasily v. titov , and affiliation: cooperative institute for climate, ocean, & ecosystem studies, university of washington, and noaa pacific marine environmental laboratory, seattle, wa, usa search for more papers by this author ">yong wei .
- Published Online: October 30, 2023
- https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2023.208
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BibTeX Citation
Was at NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, & Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, and NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
This article chronicles the 50-year history of tsunami research and development at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), beginning with the merger in 1973 of the Joint Tsunami Research Effort and PMEL. It traces the development of instrumentation and modeling that brought a better understanding of tsunamis and improved warning systems. The advantage of having observational engineering and flooding modeling under one roof are highlighted. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) research and development led to technology transfer to NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) that now operates and maintains 39 buoys and serves as real-time data distributor for other nations. This technology was also patented and licensed by PMEL to meet the needs of the international community. DART licensee Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) has manufactured over 60 buoys for eight different countries. DART data are essential for accurate tsunami warnings, so the global society benefits by receiving lifesaving information before the arrival of a tsunami.
PMEL’s tsunami flooding modeling research led to technology transfer to NOAA’s tsunami warning centers, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and international tsunami preparedness communities. Short-term flooding modeling research was initiated at PMEL to improve NOAA tsunami warning operations to better serve US coastal communities. The same validated modeling technology was then applied to produce hazard maps for coastal communities in the United States and internationally through the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). Tsunami hazard maps are an essential first step in preparing a community for the next tsunami. Using these maps and other preparedness criteria, a community can become “Tsunami Ready” for the next event. Tsunami Ready has been adopted by the IOC as the global standard for preparedness of at-risk communities with total populations exceeding 890 million people.
Reference Manager Citation
Article abstract, introduction and overview (1965–present).
While oceanographers were meeting in Hilo, Hawai‘i, to discuss the Bikini atomic bomb tests, they experienced the April 1, 1946, Alaska-generated tsunami that killed 187 people without any warning (MacDonald et al., 1947). In response to this natural disaster, the US Coast & Geodetic Survey (USC&GS), predecessor to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), established an ad hoc earthquake-centric tsunami warning system in 1947 with no new funding (Zetler, 1988). A tsunami travel time chart was developed by the USC&GS so the system could accurately predict the time of tsunami arrival in Hawai‘i. The Seismic Sea Wave Warning System became operational on August 12, 1948, using the Navy’s communication system to receive data and broadcast warnings. In 1952 and 1957, warnings issued when tsunamis were approaching Hawai‘i (Dudley and Lee, 1998) proved the value of the warning system and led to funding for continued research and operations.
Crawl 1965–1980: Basic Research to Understand Tsunamis
In 1965, an agreement was reached between the University of Hawai‘i and the USC&GS to form the Joint Tsunami Research Effort (JTRE), the first federal organization mandated to conduct tsunami research . Gaylord Miller ( Figure 1 ) was appointed as the first director, and state and federal funding was provided to continue tsunami research at the University of Hawai‘i. In 1973, JTRE merged with the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) and continued to focus on tsunamis.
(left) Gaylord Miller was the first director of tsunami research for the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL). (right) The Tsunami Research Planning Group gathered for a picture during a meeting at Orcas Island, Washington, in 1980. Top row from left: Jerry Harbor (NCR), George Lea (NSF), Chi Liu (NSF), Roger Stewart (USGS), James Houston (ACOE), Bernard LeMehaute (U. Miami), David Tung (N. Carolina State), Keen Lee (Tetra Tech), Richard Goulet (NSF), Eddie Bernard (PMEL/NOAA). Bottom row, from left: Dennis Moore (JIMAR), Ted Wu (Cal Tech), George Carrier (Harvard), Li San Hwang (Tetra Tech), William Van Dorn (Scripps), Phil Hseuh (NSF), Hal Loomis (NOAA), Charles Theil (FEMA), Fred Raichlen (Cal Tech). |
Early research activities included tsunami instrumentation developed by Martin Vitousek, studies of hydrodynamics of long period waves by Harold Loomis, and tsunami propagation modeling by Gaylord Miller and Eddie Bernard (Pararas-Carayannis, 2012). A 1972 US/Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) Agreement on Environmental Protection funded a cooperative project on tsunami research. The project consisted of a tsunami observational component with oceanographic expeditions to the USSR’s Kuril Islands and a modeling component hosted by the Siberian Academy of Sciences’ Computing Center in Academgorodak, USSR.
On November 29, 1975, due to a human error, no warning was issued for a local Hawaiian tsunami that killed two people. NOAA investigated the human error and developed a plan of action to improve tsunami warning operations. PMEL’s Bernard was appointed Director of NOAA’s Seismic Sea Wave Warning Center, which was renamed the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in 1977. Bernard followed NOAA’s action plan by integrating computer technology into tsunami warning operations and installing Hawai‘i’s local tsunami warning system from 1977 to 1980. JTRE played an important role in designing the arrays of tide gauges and seismometers. As a result of this success, PMEL’s Gaylord Miller received the Department of Commerce Gold Medal posthumously in 1977.
After Miller died in December 1976, JTRE split into the Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) in Hawai‘i and a tsunami research program at PMEL in Seattle. Bernard re-joined PMEL in 1980 as Deputy Director and leader of PMEL’s tsunami research in Seattle.
Walk 1980–2004: Research to Support NOAA Operations
In 1980, NOAA and the National Science Foundation (NSF) co-sponsored an advisory committee workshop, composed of representatives from US federal agencies ( Figure 1 ), that resulted in the first tsunami research plan for the United States (Bernard, 1983). Most US tsunami-related research and warning activities were funded by state of Hawai‘i and federal government sources, with NOAA, NSF, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) providing $2.5 million in funding, including $1.3 million for basic and applied research. The group established two goals for tsunami research: (1) forecasting tsunami dangers, and (2) evaluating coastal tsunami hazards to reduce loss of life and destruction of property. To realize these goals, an agreement was made that NSF, USACE, and NRC would fund tsunami modeling efforts, NOAA would fund tsunami observational research in both coastal and deep water, USGS would fund earthquake research, and FEMA would fund response and recovery research.
The 1980 tsunami research plan provided PMEL with a roadmap for moving forward on a limited budget. Building on its strength in ocean observations, deep-ocean tsunami observations became the top research priority for PMEL. NOAA’s tide program led the development of real-time reporting of coastal tide data. Deep ocean pilot projects were carried out in the Gulf of Alaska using internally recording bottom pressure recorders (BPRs), and several tsunamis were recorded in the deep ocean for the first time in 1986, 1987, and 1989. This was also the first time that high-resolution tsunami models were used together with bottom pressure measurements to study the potential for forecasting tsunami flooding (González et al., 1991).
In 1986, a tsunami warning for Hawai‘i led to the evacuation of Waikiki, the dismissal of all state employees, and an ensuing traffic congestion that created a situation where cars were gridlocked in evacuation zones. The government of Hawai‘i estimated this false alarm cost the state about $112 million in inflation-adjusted dollars (Bernard and Titov, 2015) and led to the loss of credibility for tsunami warnings. This experience resulted in additional PMEL funding from the Department of Defense for development of deep-ocean tsunami observations to avoid false alarms. Because hindcasts of deep-ocean tsunami measurements showed promise for forecasting tsunami coastal impacts, PMEL took the first important step with the development and field testing of the first generation of real-time tsunami detection systems, named “Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART; Figure 2 ; González et al., 2005). See the next section on the History of DART Research and Development for details.
Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoy station. The bottom pressure recorder transmits data to the surface buoy (center) that, in turn, sends the data to a satellite for distribution to tsunami warning centers, where they are assimilated into tsunami forecast models. |
Success in measuring tsunamis in the deep ocean gave rise to PMEL’s tsunami modeling program as detailed in the section on the History of Tsunami Modeling. NOAA’s mission to provide tsunami warning required the use of numerical models that assimilated DART buoy data in real time to forecast tsunami flooding along US coastlines. NOAA’s role in measuring tsunamis at tide stations and in the deep ocean was a perfect fit for developing validated numerical models for use in warning operations. PMEL’s research program became the only domestic or international effort that had tsunami observations and modeling activities under one roof.
Additional funding for PMEL’s tsunami research effort came from the formation of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The local 1992 California and distant 1994 Russia tsunamis raised new concerns about US tsunami preparedness. As a result, the Senate Appropriations Committee directed NOAA to formulate a plan for reducing tsunami risks to coastal residents. Within 10 months, tsunami hazard assessment, warnings, and mitigation were addressed during three tsunami workshops hosted by PMEL and involving over 50 scientists, emergency planners, and emergency operators from all levels of governments and universities. The Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Federal/State Working Group, with representatives from the states of Alaska, California, Hawai‘i, Oregon, and Washington as well as NOAA, FEMA, and USGS, held a workshop in 1996 that identified primary issues of concern to the states. Based on these issues, the plan established three fundamental areas of effort at funding levels of $2.3 M/year: (1) hazard assessment (produce tsunami hazard maps), (2) warning guidance (deploy tsunami detection buoys), and (3) mitigation (develop state/local mitigation plans) (Bernard, 1998). PMEL’s Director, Bernard, was elected the first chair of the NTHMP, and PMEL received funding to distribute to states. NTHMP funding from 1996 to 2004 allowed PMEL to develop tsunami detection buoys (Bernard and Meinig, 2011) and produce tsunami flooding forecast capability (Titov et al., 2005), advancing purposeful research to support NOAA’s mission. NTHMP also initiated a US “Tsunami Ready” program to recognize communities that met basic tsunami preparedness criteria, including tsunami hazard maps. “Tsunami Ready” road signs would be placed at the entrance of the community to signify this readiness. Through PMEL’s leadership, the formation of NTHMP has reduced the tsunami threat to US coastlines.
Run 2004–Present: Sharing and Advancing PMEL Tsunami Research
The horrific December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed over 230,000 people and displaced 1.7 million across 14 countries, stimulated governments of the world to address tsunami hazards. NOAA and the USGS received $40 million to strengthen the existing US tsunami warning system. NOAA was tasked with deploying an array of 39 DART stations as the foundation of a global tsunami warning system and succeeded in setting up an interim tsunami warning service for the Indian Ocean. PMEL became the center of scientific tsunami knowledge, triggering a frenzy of requests for information from Congress, NOAA, and the national and international media as well as visiting delegations from Indian Ocean nations and members of Congress. In addition, there was a call to develop a second strategic plan for tsunami research in the United States, published as The National Tsunami Research Plan (Bernard et al., 2007). In addition to recommending priorities for tsunami research, the plan summarized contributions from various agencies, documenting that the United States spent about $55 million in 2005 for tsunami risk reduction activities. Comparing these inflation-adjusted funding levels with the 1980s, there has been a ninefold increase in total US tsunami effort with a threefold increase in tsunami research funding over this 25-year interval.
Most importantly, in 2006, the US Congress passed the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109-424) as an extension of the efforts of the NTHMP. The act has four elements: warning, education, research, and international cooperation. Both the national research plan and the tsunami act emphasize research that embraces tsunami resilience—the ability of a community to quickly recover from a tsunami. PMEL’s observational and modeling research and development contributions, as well as the formation and early leadership of NTHMP, are the pillars of the national and international effort in tsunami mitigation (Bernard, 2012). PMEL continued to develop the DART and tsunami flooding technology into a real-time tsunami flooding forecast capability, recognized by a Department of Commerce Gold Medal award. This capability was tested during the 2011 Japanese tsunami when a flooding forecast was issued for the Hawaiian Islands six hours before tsunami arrival, allowing ample time to evacuate coastal areas (Bernard and Titov, 2015). Flooding occurred on all islands, validating the forecast accuracy, and more importantly, there were no deaths.
In 2013, PMEL completed the transfer of models to NOAA operations and the US Congress reauthorized the legislation as the Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act. Advancing the distributed forecast concept, PMEL has developed two prototype web tools: (1) the Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT), which allowed development, use, and sharing of tsunami modeling results (Titov, et al., 2011); and (2) Tweb, which allows sharing forecast results for different coastlines via a graphical web client (Bernard and Titov, 2015). Tweb also allows extremely fast development of the tsunami forecast capability for specific locations.
The 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption generated a Pacific-wide tsunami (Lynett, et al., 2022). Earthquake-centric warning systems struggled to evaluate the tsunami potential from this non-earthquake source, and as a result, information was confusing and not timely. PMEL’s experimental tsunami forecast products, on the other hand, used available DART data and provided quantitative threat estimates for Pacific coastlines during the event (see Tweb product in Figure 3 ). Efforts are underway to implement such “source-independent” assessments into tsunami warning operations of national and international tsunami warning centers.
Tonga volcano eruption event as displayed in Tweb. Green triangles indicate locations of the international network of 72 DART stations supported by the United States, India, Thailand, Chile, Australia, Columbia, and New Zealand. |
History of DART Research and Development
Initial development for real-time measurement.
The history of the development of real-time measurements of tsunamis in the deep ocean for the purpose of forecasting coastal tsunami impacts began in the 1980s, with early testing of various instruments designed to determine if tsunamis could be measured in the deep ocean (Bernard and Meinig, 2011). We found that the measurement of pressure changes induced by a tsunami required a high-resolution pressure sensor installed on the seafloor to provide a near motionless and temperature stable environment for optimal sensor performance. Additionally, by placing the BPR in the deep ocean, higher-frequency wind waves are naturally attenuated and do not bias the tsunami signal.
Early self-recording BPRs included ultra-low-powered electronics and a digital broadband depth sensor. The sensor included a Bourdon tube, which generated an uncoiling force that applied tension to the quartz crystal resting on the seafloor; it used the depth of the ocean as a pressure reference (Paroscientific, 2004). Once deep ocean measurements were deemed possible, testing and evaluation continued in order to develop critical real-time communications from the BPR to the warning centers. Multiple approaches and four years of ocean testing were devoted to identifying which technology was accurate, affordable, and reliable enough to be used for forecasting under tsunami warning conditions (Meinig et al., 2001). When PMEL completed the research, development, and field testing of an operational prototype based on warning center requirements, in October 2003, the technology was transferred to NOAA operations (Bernard and Meinig, 2011). The system design consisted of a BPR that relayed communications via acoustic modem to a surface buoy connected in real time to shore via a satellite link ( Figure 2 ).
The first-generation DART array comprised six stations strategically located off Alaska, Oregon, and near the equator, the latter to detect tsunamis originating in the Chile/Peru area. The DART I array demonstrated its value within four months by measuring a small tsunami that originated in Alaska and relaying these data to NOAA’s tsunami warning centers in real time. DART data indicated a nondestructive tsunami had been generated, and evacuation of Hawai‘i’s coastline was unnecessary. Avoiding a false alarm minimized disruptions to coastal communities and validated the DART system design.
DART Development
The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami motivated the development of the second-generation DART system (DART II) that included global functionality and a two-way communication link from seafloor instruments to the warning centers. It used a newly available global low-Earth orbiting commercial satellite network that allowed a standardized DART II to be deployed anywhere on the globe and communicate with any warning center in the world. An additional capability allowed DART II to be triggered from shore prior to the arrival of an expected tsunami wave, so that warning center operators had the option of accessing tsunami data on demand.
Another impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the identification of many techniques that were touted as being capable of detecting tsunamis in the deep ocean, including satellite-based technologies (e.g., altimeters, scatterometers, and differential GPS), radar-based technologies (e.g., over-the-horizon radars and CODAR), and acoustic-based technologies (e.g., hydrophones and seismometers). By applying the following requirements for real-time tsunami forecasting globally—(1) measurement type: amplitude over time; (2) accuracy: 0.5 cm; (3) sample rate: <1 min; (4) processing speed: within 2 min; and (5) availability: within 5 min—only one technology could measure tsunamis accurately, reliably, and within time constraints required to forecast tsunamis in real time. Table 1 illustrates that DART technology is able to meet all five requirements and identifies the limitations of other tsunami measurement technologies.
Comparison of technologies meeting requirements for tsunami forecasting. Blue check indicates meeting requirement, while X indicates not meeting requirement (Bernard and Meinig, 2011). |
By 2008, NOAA expanded the original DART array from six to 39 stations in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Because NOAA wanted to make this technology available to all nations, PMEL took a strategic, two-pronged approach: (1) publishing the system description and characteristics, and (2) licensing the DART technology patents to a US company, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), that currently manufactures and supports DART systems. Meanwhile, PMEL continued to make improvements to the original design, adding warning center requirements, reducing operating costs, and improving reliability. By 2010, over 40 tsunamis had been measured using DART technology, and the third-generation DART system had become a part of the operational global array. The DART Easy to Deploy (ETD; Figure 4 ) is more affordable and does not require large ships or highly specialized crew to deploy and maintain the operational arrays.
DART third generation Easy to Deploy (ETD) system. |
While the DART technology was reliable in monitoring for tsunami from far-field events, it could not separate the earthquake and tsunami signals in the near field during rupture. By 2015, a fourth-generation DART (DART 4G) system that incorporates key pressure sensor improvements (Paros et al., 2011) was developed to work in seismically active subduction zones as well as for far-field tsunami detection. The added near-field capability gave emergency managers additional flexibility to optimize array design for reducing warning times for communities under threat. By 2019, the DART 4G was deployed in the shallow waters of Lake Michigan and detected multiple meteotsunamis generated from atmospheric disturbances.
Multiple generations of DART systems were developed using a rigorous testing process based on system requirements that enabled the PMEL tsunami modeling group to revolutionize the timeliness and accuracy of flooding predictions for vulnerable communities. The international network of over 72 DART stations, supported by the United States, Russia, India, Thailand, Chile, Australia, Ecuador, Columbia, Taiwan, and New Zealand, now protects large populations from tsunamis ( Figure 3 ).
History of Tsunami Modeling
PMEL developed tsunami models for both short-term and long-term hazard assessments at numerous locations globally, as illustrated in Figure 5 . Short-term hazard assessment supports NOAA’s mission to issue real-time tsunami warnings that include flooding forecast capability based on DART data assimilation (Titov et al., 2005). A long-term tsunami hazard assessment is the application of this modeling technology to identify the potential impact of a tsunami on a coastal community at risk. Long-term assessment can use deterministic or probabilistic approaches, both discussed in this section.
Various symbols show location coverage of PMEL’s short-term and long-term tsunami inundation hazard assessment models. |
Short-Term Assessment
The original tsunami propagation code that later became the basis of the flooding model was developed at the Novosibirsk Computing Center of the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences of what was then the USSR, from 1984 to 1989. A novel numerical scheme was applied to solve the nonlinear shallow water wave (NSW) equations, without artificial viscosity or application of a friction factor. The method has proven to be especially efficient for tsunami forecast application, providing very fast computation with validated accuracy. Further development of the tsunami model occurred at the University of Southern California from 1992 to 1997 to add the capability of tsunami flooding simulation. These successes were documented in Titov and Synolakis (1998). More importantly, the model had undergone intense testing and verification during two NSF-sponsored tsunami model benchmarking workshops that led to development of standard tsunami model benchmarking procedures (Synolakis et al., 2008). In 1997, this flooding model was first introduced as a NOAA tsunami forecast tool (Titov, 2009). The transition was funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). This project pioneered the use of deep ocean pressure data for tsunami flooding forecasts. At first, measurements were not transmitted in real time but rather were recovered from the BPR after a year-long deployment. The NOAA flooding model used the pressure records of the 1996 Andreanof tsunami to test the distant tsunami propagation simulation capability.
The flooding model was further developed by introducing three standardized levels of telescoping computational grids that zoomed into a coastal location, with adequate grid resolution for accurate inundation modeling ( Figure 6 ). Tsunami observation data from the 1993 Okushiri Island, 1994 Kuril Islands, and 1996 Andreanof Island tsunamis (Titov et al., 2005) confirmed these choices and established the standard resolution for the inundation model resolution of 50 m.
Telescoping grids were used to forecast tsunami flooding in Hawai‘i from the 2011 Japanese tsunami six hours before arrival using DART data. |
The flooding model is the core tsunami forecast tool, as described in detail in Titov (2009). A forecast scenario consists of a propagation model that provides input for coastal inundation models for specific portions of coastlines. The propagation model combines precomputed propagation simulations (referred to as unit sources) to minimize the differences between actual DART measurements and model scenarios. Each unit source is a simulation of tsunami propagation from a particular source of M 7.5 along major known tsunamigenic areas around the world (Gica et al., 2008). Over 2,000 such propagation runs are stored in PMEL’s database, and the actual flooding forecast is produced using a nonlinear inundation model at high resolution. Nearshore tsunami dynamics and overland flooding are estimated through modeling a set of grids telescoping from the propagation runs of ~7 km resolution into the inundation model resolution of ~50 m.
After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed nearly a quarter million unwarned coastal residents, NOAA began to implement PMEL flooding forecast capabilities into operational tsunami warning systems. The flooding model became the core component of NOAA’s operational forecast system. Developing codes that run on demand under the pressure of tsunami warning operations is quite different from traditional model development and application in tsunami research. An operational model must provide accurate, robust, and rapid results with minimal interaction from forecasters. Tang et al. (2009) discuss these challenging and conflicting requirements for operational flooding forecasts, and Kânoglu et al. (2015) describe the methodology. The next 10 years of model advancement were focused on increasing robustness, accuracy, and development of site-specific models for the most vulnerable US coastal communities.
Tsunamigenic earthquakes offer large-scale experiments that provide source information and tsunami measurements for model validation. The full US array of 39 DARTs was completed in 2008 ( Figure 3 ). Since 2003, there has been at least one DART record for every measurable tsunami. The earthquake location and the DART data provide the necessary information to produce a tsunami coastal impact forecast (Wei et al., 2008). Hence, every tsunami detected by the DARTs post-2003 has been analyzed using PMEL’s flooding model to continuously validate the model’s performance.
The March 11, 2011, Japanese tsunami created devastation in Japan and panic throughout the Pacific. During this tsunami, the PMEL model was used to produce the first real-time tsunami flooding forecast for US Pacific coastal communities. This pan-Pacific propagation computation was available about 90 minutes after the earthquake, using two DARTs (one American-owned and one Russian-owned) that recorded the initial half-wave period of the evolving tsunami. The propagation forecast was used to set initial conditions for high-resolution flooding model runs for 32 coastal communities in the United States and resulted in warnings for and evacuations in Hawai‘i (Tang et al., 2012). The forecast of flooding in Hawai‘i was confirmed by later observations and surveys, showing that the modeling forecast of tsunami flooding had become a reality ( Figure 6 ). It was further reinforced by PMEL’s post-event model validation of the tsunami waveforms and inundation along Japan’s coastlines (Wei et al., 2013). The flooding forecast predicted tsunami amplitudes over 2 m at several locations along the US West Coast. However, the West Coast was spared from flooding by a significant low tide at the time of maximum tsunami wave arrival. The capability to linearly combine the tidal model and the flooding forecast model input is now implemented into the operational model. The PMEL flooding modeling system was successfully transferred to NOAA’s tsunami warning centers in 2013 (see Titov et al., 2023, in this issue, for details) .
Long-Term Assessment
Deterministic method.
A deterministic inundation hazard assessment first acquires predefined tsunami source(s) that are deemed worst-case scenarios for the site based on historical accounts, paleo-geological records, and simulation results if limited historical data exist. PMEL pioneered the deterministic approach for assessing tsunami inundation hazards for US coastlines utilizing state-of-the-art numerical codes. In 2000, PMEL started to apply numerical models to map tsunami inundation in Puget Sound resulting from crustal faults in the Pacific Northwest. For a long-term inundation mapping project, Titov et al. (2003) established the PMEL standards and procedures, data sources, and mapping products that formed the fundamental criteria for development of the short-term inundation models. PMEL has been a partner with Washington Geological Survey in developing tsunami inundation maps for coastal communities in the state of Washington. PMEL was also involved in numerous tsunami inundation mapping and hazard assessment efforts for California, Hawai‘i, Oregon, Guam, and Pacific islands, and for critical infrastructures such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (see the long-term deterministic sites in Figure 5 ). Most of these assessments were based on deterministic earthquake scenarios that may potentially yield the worst-case inundation at a site.
Probabilistic Method
Deterministic, scenario-based hazard assessment methods have the advantage of bracketing potential impact at a study site. Unlike the deterministic practice of “worst-case” scenarios, the probabilistic approach estimates “unexpected” tsunamis like the 2011 Japan tsunami (Kânoglu et al., 2015). For structures in a tsunami flooding zone, the probability of occurrence of a tsunami event is more crucial for their design specifications than a “worst-case” scenario. The Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), adapted from the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), assesses tsunami risks based on a reliability analysis that considers the uncertainty and variability of seismic events (Geist and Parsons, 2006). PMEL was one of the leading agencies to apply PTHA in inundation hazard assessment using numerical simulations (González et al., 2009). This pioneering work performed high-resolution modeling for a small number of source scenarios, with PSHA-defined return periods, to derive 100- and 500-year recurrence inundation at a study site. It considered the uncertainty due to different tidal stages and slip distribution for near-field sources.
Since the 2011 Japan tsunami, practical, probabilistic-based design standards have been applied to achieve greater resilience of critical and essential facilities, such as tsunami vertical evacuation structures and other multi-story building structures subjected to tsunami inundation (Chock et al., 2018). PTHA methods include (1) uncertain, unpredictable random processes like modeling errors, source geometry, and randomness of slip distribution, and (2) an incomplete understanding of natural processes such as fault segmentation, slip rate, and earthquake recurrence rate. The latter relies on the use of logic trees to express experts’ current understanding of earthquake processes. A rigorous PTHA thus generates thousands or more scenarios to represent full integration over earthquake magnitudes, locations, and sources. Through collaboration with the tsunami loads and effects subcommittee of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), PMEL developed a simplified, yet ASCE-compliant, approach method to model the probabilistic tsunami inundation for a study site. This approach first identifies the most hazard-contributing source regions for the study site, and then propagates the waves that match the PTHA amplitude exceedance rates offshore the study site for high-resolution inundation computation. During 2013–2015, PMEL developed Tsunami Design Zone (TDZ) maps for all coastlines of the five Pacific states for the ASCE tsunami provision (Wei et al., 2015). In the following years, PMEL continued probabilistic inundation modeling studies for many sites and coastlines globally ( Figure 5 ), in collaboration with Department of State, the Navy, the state of Hawai‘i, and private sectors.
Contribution of PMEL Tsunami Research
Scientific and practical outputs.
There are many metrics in research to signify quality. For a federal research laboratory, three metrics are especially relevant: publications, patents, and awards. Publications are an indicator that the science is peer reviewed and shared with the scientific community. Publications are also a way for scientists, throughout the world, to build upon US investments, paving the way for accelerated advancements in tsunami research. Patents are a key indicator of innovation and relevance; they protect the US government’s use of its own intellectual property and discourage others from filing such patents. Patents also provide an income stream for PMEL through royalties. Awards are recognition that the research has value to NOAA, the nation, and internationally.
Publications
PMEL tsunami scientists have published over 322 peer-reviewed articles, technical reports, and conference proceedings that have appeared in the scientific literature, and they have served as editors of three books: (1) Tsunami Hazard (Bernard, 1991), (2) Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities (Bernard, 2005) , and (3) The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis (Bernard and Robinson, 2009 ) . According to Google Scholar, these publications have been cited over 10,000 times in the scientific literature.
Patent/Trademark
PMEL has provided an exclusive license to SAIC for DART technology under US Patent 7,289,907 (issued in 2007 as “System for reporting high resolution ocean pressures in near real-time for the purpose of tsunami monitoring,” Christian Meinig, Scott E. Stalin, Alex I. Nakamura, Hugh B. Milburn ) . A Trademark for “DART Tsunami Technology” was registered in 2007, and SAIC license royalties paid to PMEL have totaled over $565,000.
PMEL tsunami research has received 20 major awards in recognition of outstanding research relevant to the United States and to Japan, with sponsors including three US Presidents, the US Senate, and the US Department of Commerce (DOC). The awards include four Gold Medals, the DOC’s highest award, and two Bronze Medals, and the following NOAA awards: Administrator’s Award, Technology Transfer Award, Gears of Government Award, Silver Sherman Award, Outstanding Scientific Paper Award, and Team Member of the Month Award. Additional honors include The National Academies Ocean Studies Board Thirteenth Annual Roger Revelle Commemorative Lecturer (Bernard, 2012), the Partnership for Public Service 2008 Service to America Medal, and The Tsunami Society Award. In 2016, Bernard received the inaugural Hamaguchi Award for Enhancement of Tsunami Resilience presented by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism.
The combination of publications, patent, and awards clearly shows the quality of PMEL tsunami research and its impact on tsunami mitigation for the nation and the world.
PMEL’s DART research and development led to technology transfer to NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), which now operates and maintains 39 buoys and serves as real-time data distributor for other nations. This technology was also patented and licensed by PMEL to meet the needs of the international community. DART licensee SAIC has manufactured over 60 buoys for eight different countries. PMEL’s tsunami flooding modeling research led to technology transfer to NOAA’s tsunami warning centers, NTHMP, and international tsunami preparedness communities. Short-term flooding modeling research was initiated at PMEL to improve NOAA tsunami warning operations to better serve US coastal communities. Because NOAA operations required validation of models, the transfer took years to complete. PMEL-developed web-based modeling tools ComMIT and Tweb provide fast development options for shared tsunami modeling, forecasting, and hazard assessment projects around the world. These tools have been used by hundreds of scientists for model development and by several countries for tsunami forecast development (Bernard and Titov, 2015). The same validated modeling technology was then used in long-term forecast modeling to produce hazard maps for coastal communities in the United States through the NTHMP and internationally through the IOC. Tsunami hazard maps are an essential first step in preparing a community for the next tsunami. Using these maps and other preparedness criteria, a community can become Tsunami Ready for the next event. Tsunami Ready has been adopted by the IOC as the global standard for preparedness for at-risk, populations. IOC efforts are underway to make all tsunami threatened communities “Tsunami Ready” by 2030 (ITIC, 2023).
In 2012, PMEL scientists joined the effort led by the ASCE to articulate the first national design criteria addressing tsunami load and effect on buildings, published in ASCE (2017) and later incorporated into the International Building Code. PMEL developed the first draft of probabilistically based TDZ maps for the US West Coast that are integrated into ASCE’s tsunami geodatabase ( https://asce7tsunami.online/ ; Wei et al., 2015).
Performance
One performance measure is the expanded use of research products through technology transfers. A brief history of the transfer of DART and modeling technologies within and outside NOAA is detailed in Titov et al. (2023, in this issue). PMEL’s efforts in successfully transferring tsunami technology ranks research productivity at the highest level. These efforts have not only benefited NOAA operations in the creation of a tsunami flooding forecast capability but also the United States and the world as these technologies are applied to protect coastal communities with populations exceeding 890 million people (Reimann et al., 2023) from future tsunamis.
Conclusions and Future of Tsunami Research
The combination of publications, patents, and awards clearly demonstrates PMEL tsunami research capabilities and their significant impact on tsunami mitigation for the nation and the world. Further, NOAA’s tsunami flooding prediction capability, derived from PMEL research, will remain a substantial part of the world’s defense against future tsunamis.
The immediate next step is development of timely near-field warnings, available in 10 minutes or less after an earthquake stops shaking. Further development of DART 4G, designed to work in seismically active subduction zones, will allow detection of tsunamis closer to the source, enabling quicker warning. Preliminary tests of the near-field flooding forecast capability using the 2011 Tōhoku data and the 2015 Chile tsunami forecast (Tang et al., 2016) have already shown promising results. NOAA’s flooding model will further evolve in response to these new goals, and developments are under way to improve numerical efficiency, to implement more robust boundary conditions, and to include faster and more accurate forecasts, including tsunami induced currents in harbors. Artificial intelligence is being applied to NOAA’s forecasting capability to determine whether this technology can improve warning operations. NOAA’s tsunami flooding prediction capability, derived from PMEL research, will remain a substantial part of the world’s defense against future tsunamis.
Acknowledgments
We thank noaa for 50 years of support. we also thank three anonymous reviewers for providing comments that improved the quality of this manuscript. this is pmel contribution number 5474..
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Damages of Tsunami to Human Beings Essay
1. Introduction A tsunami is a series of ocean waves with very long wavelengths (typically hundreds of kilometers) caused by large-scale disturbances of the ocean, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. When the sea floor is distorted, the water above is displaced. Displacement of water may also be caused by a sudden change in atmospheric pressure. Tsunamis are a Japanese term, which translates to "harbor wave." The reason why tsunamis are described like this is because when t ...
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Research paper on tsunami.
August 10, 2013 UsefulResearchPapers Research Papers 0
Today, tsunami is generally accepted international scientific term derived from a Japanese word meaning “big wave filling the bay.” The exact definition of a tsunami is a long wave of catastrophic nature, arising mainly as a result of tectonic movements on the ocean floor.
At the present stage of the science and technology development it is not possible to accurately predict the time and location of an earthquake, but after it happened, the possibility of a tsunami in a given point can be precalculate.
The phenomenon, which we call a tsunami, is a series of propagating waves in the ocean with a very long length and period. These waves are formed as a result of earthquakes occurring under the ocean or near the coast. Tsunamis can be formed during the eruption of underwater volcanoes, as well as collapses of large tracts of land to the ocean. Tsunami moves in the deep ocean at a speed of over 1000 km / h, the distance between successive crests (troughs) waves may be more than a few hundred kilometers away, so in the open sea, they are not felt by people on board the ships.
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When a tsunami comes to the shallow parts of the coast, the waves velocity decreases sharply, and their height increases significantly. It is in these shallow areas where the tsunami becomes dangerous to people and property. On these sites, its height can be more than 30-50 meters, and the destructive force of the waves is huge.
Especially dangerous tsunami is for settlements and structures that are at the top of the bays and coves, wide open to the ocean and a wedge tapering towards the land. Here, as in the funnel, the tsunami is catching up a large mass of water, which, at the end of the bay, spills out onto the shore, and floods the mouth of the rivers and valleys for 2-3 km out from the sea.
Tsunami is a rare phenomenon. In the Pacific Kamchatka Kurile islands and tsunami occur with maximum water level rise above 23 m once during 100-200 years, with the rise of 8 to 23 m once in 50-100 years, with the rise of 3 to 8 once in 20-30 years, with the rise of 1-3 m once in 10 years.
Students, writing their research proposal on the subject should use free sample research paper topics on tsunami, which can present them an information about tsunami intensity scale, which is very similar to the scale of earthquake intensity. In addition to that, these free papers can teach you the set of rules, which is essential for writing a good research paper. Moreover, they can give some ideas on how to present the result of your research on paper. One of the most popular research paper topics is Japan tsunami and tsunami of 2004.
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99 Tsunami Essay Topic Ideas & Examples
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- The Causes and Consequences of the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka Due to a displacement of sea water as a result of displaced debris from landslides, a series of waves that has a potential of causing a tsunami is formed.
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- Natural Disasters: Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Tsunamis In addition, the paper will outline some of the similarities and differences between tsunamis and floods. Similarities between tsunamis and floods: Both tsunamis and floods are natural disasters that cause destruction of properties and human […]
- Tsunami Disasters in Okushiri Island In addition, fire outbreaks also contributed to the devastating effects of the tsunami. In addition, the question of educating and passing information about dangers of tsunami contributed to massive loss of lives.
- The Sumatra Earthquake of 26 December 2004: Indonesia Tsunami As such, the earthquake resulted in the development of a large tsunami off the Sumatran Coast that led to destruction of large cities in Indonesia.
- Natural Disasters: Tsunami, Hurricanes and Earthquake The response time upon the prediction of a tsunami is minimal owing to the rapid fall and rise of the sea level.
- Effect of the 2004 Tsunami on Indonesia The areas prone to tsunamis on the Indonesian coast are: The west coast of Sumatra, the south coast of Java, the north and south coasts of West Nusa, Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara provinces, the […]
- Causes and Effect of the Tsunami in Indonesia Scientifically tsunami is caused by the water which is impelled afar the interior of the underwater commotion, the change in this water levels move at the speed of about four hundred miles per sixty minutes […]
- Tsunami’s Reasons and Effects Therefore, it is essential to know how to anticipate the place and time of the occurrence of a tsunami and to determine which factors are the main in assessing the potential wave’s power and the […]
- Tsunamis: Case Studies Massive movement of seabed caused the tsunami during the earthquake movement. The Burma plates slipped around the earthquake’s epicenter.
- Tsunami Warning Management System Tsunami emergency management system detects and predicts tsunami in addition to warning individuals and government in good time before the onset of the disaster.
- South California Tsunami and Disaster Response This paper provides the report’s estimate figures in terms of human casualties and the structures affected by the wave. The Figure 1 represents the graphical representation of the data collected.
- The Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 Documentary The documentary reflects the events leading to the natural disasters and their aftermath, including an investigation into the reasons for the failure of the precautionary measures in place during the 2011 earthquake in Japan.
- Tsunami Warning Systems In such a way, it is possible to conclude that the poor functioning of awareness systems in the past preconditioned the reconsideration of the approach to monitoring tsunamis and warning people about them.
- Tsunami and the Health Department The overstretching of health facilities poses a great challenge; how can the health department deal with tsunami cases to ensure that the community is disease-free and safe?
- Economic Tsunami and Current Economic Strategies The current economic situation in the world is the result of a great number of different factors including the sphere of finance.
- Tsunami Handling at a Nuclear Power Plant The information presented in this research paper has been analyzed and proved to be the actual content obtained by various parties that participate in the study of tsunamis.
- Tsunami Funding: On Assistance to the Victims of the December 2004 Tsunami In the US, through the help of the United Nations Organization in conjunction with the Red Cross, sited and established centers where people in the community would take their donations.
- Tsunami: Crisis Management The saving of lives during a disaster and emergency incident will depend on the proper coordination of the rescue team, delivery of the right skills to the scene which can only be achieved through the […]
- The Recommendations Made in the Field of Tsunami Emergency Managements Additionally, the tsunami that hit the coastal area of the Indian Ocean in 2004 was one of the events that led to reconsiderations of the preparedness levels in dealing with catastrophes of such scales.
- Physical Aspect of Tsunami According to Nelson, wave length is the distance between similar points of the wave; the concepts of tsunami wave height and amplitude are interconnected, as the height is the distance between tsunami’s trough and peak, […]
- Tsunami Geological Origin Firstly, the source of the volcanic eruption has to be understood, as this natural phenomenon is one of the primary causes of a tsunami.
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IvyPanda. (2023, January 24). 99 Tsunami Essay Topic Ideas & Examples. https://ivypanda.com/essays/topic/tsunami-essay-topics/
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Tsunami - Research Paper Example
![tsunami research paper example Tsunami](https://studentshare.info/img/document-gallery/04/0/1653061_400_600_1.jpg)
- Subject: Physics
- Type: Research Paper
- Level: High School
- Pages: 5 (1250 words)
- Downloads: 3
- Author: waelchidoyle
Extract of sample "Tsunami"
When it reaches shore waters, they rise to form masses of moving water known as “run-up”. This phenomenon is very many feet high and its variation depends on the strength of striking waves (NOAA, 2009). Normal run-up height is about 30 meters high although there are some extra high run-ups such as that witnessed in Alaska in 1958 which went up to 60 meters high. Run-up rush onto the sea shore and strikes the coastal areas with an intensive, destructive force. Huge earthquakes are able to send tsunami waves across oceans.
For instance, recent earthquakes in both Japan and Chile send tsunami waves which struck Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, California, and Washington causing enormous losses of life and property. Water masses subjected to tsunami waves can take hours to regain stability hence tsunami effects can experienced repeatedly. Tsunami waves occur in phases called first, second and even the third waves. First waves are always less destructive but the second and third may have catastrophic effect depending on the magnitude of causing forces and the position of origin (NOAA, 2009).
Tsunamis have very long waves and crest to crest distance may be anywhere between 10 and 2500 kilometers. It travels through the sea at a speed more than 700 km/h. A series of waves travel and arrive at the sea shore at an interval of few minutes. In most cases, tsunami waves are not noticeable like normal sea waves and tides but it possess large amount of energy than other waves. Due to its influence to entire water column, depth of water determines its force (Nelson, 2012). The long wavelengths make the first sign of tsunami waves at the sea shores to be a drawback.
Tsunami is caused by submarine earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption or meteorites (CA, 2009). These causes have common characteristics because they occur suddenly and violently which make them to displace large amounts of water.
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The 21st century tsunami, tsunami,their causes and results, tsunami: definition and prevention, (geology) tsunami threat in california, indian ocean tsunami, japanese earthquake and tsunami: fukushima, 2004 indian ocean tsunami, environmental risks, probability, and the logical tree of a tsunami.
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remote-sensing technology that can measure the distance. to, or other properties of, a target by illuminating the target. with light generally in the form of pulses from an airborne. laser. This ...
The research field's significant contributions started since the most famous South Asian tsunami in 2004 and the Tohoku tsunami in 2011, with a particular trend rising since the 2018 Palu tsunami. Bibliometric or Scientometric analysis is a discipline that studies literature and science in a particular field quantitatively, thus providing a ...
The impacts of earthquakes and tsunami in marine benthic communities are revised. Coastal uplifts and liquefaction affect the coasts and marine biota. Impacts range from mass mortality to rapid colonization by opportunistic species. Recovery times to a pre-disturbance state generally ranged between two to three years.
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Search for more papers by this author . and . Nobuo Shuto. Nobuo Shuto. Professor Emeritus, Tohoku University, Aoba 468-1, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan ... Figure 3 shows an example of a tsunami fragility curve obtained in the 2011 Tohoku event. Note that this fragility curve was obtained using the form of probability of structural ...
With the advancement of the global economy, the coastal region has become heavily developed and densely populated and suffers significant damage potential considering various natural disasters, including tsunamis, as indicated by several catastrophic tsunami disasters in the 21st century. This study reviews the up-to-date tsunami research from two different viewpoints: tsunamis caused by ...
Data collection. The data used in this study were obtained from the Web of Science (WOS) database on January 10, 2023 by inputting the keywords "tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea" OR "tsunami in the Mediterranean Region" OR "tsunami in south Europe" OR "tsunami in north Africa" with document types including research articles, review articles, book chapters, and proceedings.
Tsunamis are caused by geological processes, such as earthquakes, landslides, or. volcanic eruptions, that displace large volumes of ocean water. Large-magnitude, subduction zone earthquakes ...
This paper provides an overall review of tsunami research, mainly in the detection and measurement of tsunami waves in the deep ocean. ... Cox, D. C.: 1978, 'Economic Justification of Tsunami Research; A Specific Example Based on Reduction of False Alarms in Hawaii', Proceedings — Symposium on Tsunamis, Ensenada, Mexico, pp. 218—223.
There is no formal or precise definition of "event," and unequivocally differentiating between storm and tsunami deposits in the geological record is challenging. Recent research has focused on comparing historical examples of storm and tsunami deposits [for example, see the studies of Goff et al. and Tuttle et al. ]. Onshore, storms tend ...
Earthquakes that cause extensive damage occur frequently in Japan, the most recent being the Noto Peninsula earthquake on January 1, 2024. To facilitate such a recovery, we introduce a community ...
Earthquake information provides the initial tsunami threat evaluation since this data provides the fastest early indicator of the tsunami's potential. Conclusion. This paper set out to briefly research on tsunamis with focus on the causes of these features and some examples that have happened in recent history.
The tsunami that occurred in the Sunda Strait was generated by an avalanche of volcanic material, which is falling into the caldera formed by the eruption of Krakatau in 1883. Download Free PDF. View PDF. Consequences of other natural disasters on constructions, except volcanic eruptions.
The objective of tsunami modeling research is to develop numerical models for faster and more reliable forecasts of tsunamis propagating through the ocean and striking coastal communities. The primary responsibility of the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) is to provide assistance to the Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC) in the form of Forecast Modeling software products specifically ...
The 1980 tsunami research plan provided PMEL with a roadmap for moving forward on a limited budget. Building on its strength in ocean observations, deep-ocean tsunami observations became the top research priority for PMEL. NOAA's tide program led the development of real-time reporting of coastal tide data.
1. Introduction A tsunami is a series of ocean waves with very long wavelengths (typically hundreds of kilometers) caused by large-scale disturbances of the ocean, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides.
Get a custom research paper on What Is a Tsunami and What Causes Them? Tsunami originated from the Japanese words 'tsu' meaning 'harbor' and 'nami' meaning 'wave' to make a 'harbor wave'. Tsunamis have in the past and present brought catastrophic devastation to property and human death like in North East of Japan, on March ...
Students, writing their research proposal on the subject should use free sample research paper topics on tsunami, which can present them an information about tsunami intensity scale, which is very similar to the scale of earthquake intensity. In addition to that, these free papers can teach you the set of rules, which is essential for writing a ...
The Causes and Consequences of the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka. Due to a displacement of sea water as a result of displaced debris from landslides, a series of waves that has a potential of causing a tsunami is formed. We will write a custom essay specifically for you by our professional experts. 192 writers online.
In March 2011, there was a great Tsunami in Japan and a large number of casualties.... In the paper "Tsunami: Definition And Prevention" tell us more about this information....Tsunami: Definition and Prevention The world was surprised by March when a large Tsunami hit Japan and large numbers of casualties were recorded.... The source of Tsunami is an underground earthquake usually from the ...