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How we transform to a fully decarbonized world

A world powered by electricity from abundant, renewable resources is now within reach.

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In 1856, Napoleon III commissioned a baby rattle for his newborn son, to be made from one of the most precious metals known at the time: light, silvery, and corrosion-resistant aluminum. Despite its abundance—it’s the third most common element in Earth’s crust—the metal wasn’t isolated until 1824, and the complexity and cost of the process made the rattle a gift fit for a prince. It wasn’t until 1886 that two young researchers, on opposite sides of the Atlantic, developed the method that is still used for refining aluminum commercially. The Hall-Héroult process is extraordinarily energy intensive: the chemically modified ore is dissolved into a high-temperature bath of molten minerals, and an electrical current is passed through it to separate the metallic aluminum. It’s also intrinsically energy intensive: part of the reason the metal was isolated only relatively recently is because aluminum atoms bind so tightly to oxygen. No amount of clever engineering will change that physical reality. The astronomical growth in worldwide aluminum production over the last century was made possible by the build-out of the energy infrastructure necessary to power commercial refineries, and to do so in a way that was economically viable. In the US, that was facilitated by the massive hydroelectricity projects built by the federal government as part of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal, closely followed by World War II and the immense mobilization of resources it entailed: aluminum was the material of choice for the thousands and thousands of aircraft that rolled off wartime assembly lines as fast as others were shot down. Within a century, the metal went from precious and rare to ubiquitous and literally disposable.

Just as much as technological breakthroughs, it’s that availability of energy that has shaped our material world. The exponential rise in fossil-fuel usage over the past century and a half has powered novel, energy-intensive modes of extracting, processing, and consuming matter, at unprecedented scale. But now, the cumulative environmental, health, and social impacts—in economics terms, the negative externalities—of this approach have become unignorable. We can see them nearly everywhere we look, from the health effects of living near highways or oil refineries to the ever-growing issue of plastic, textile, and electronic waste. 

We’re accustomed to thinking about the energy transition as a way of solving the environmental problem of climate change. We need energy to meet human needs—for protection from the elements (whether as warmth or cooling), fuel for cooking, artificial light, social needs like mobility and communication, and more. Decarbonizing our energy systems means meeting these needs without burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Largely as a result of public investment in clean-energy research and development, a world powered by electricity from abundant, renewable, nonpolluting sources is now within reach.

Just as much as technological breakthroughs, it’s the availability of energy that has shaped our material world

What is much less appreciated is that this shift also has the potential to power a transformation in our relationship with matter and materials, enabling us to address the environmental problem of pollution and waste. That won’t happen by accident, any more than the growth of these industries in the 20th century was an accident. In order to reach this future, we need to understand, research, invest in, and build it. Every joule of electricity that comes from fossil fuels means paying for what’s burned to produce it. In fact, because of the inefficiency of thermal generation, it means paying for many more joules of heat. 

Energy generation from renewable sources has capital and operating costs, of course, but minimal, incremental ones. That’s because the input energy arrives as wind or sunlight, not as boxcars of coal. In the big picture, this means that in a fully decarbonized world, all energy will be closer to hydroelectricity in its economics: while it may never quite be “too cheap to meter,” it may indeed be too cheap to reliably generate a profit on an open energy market. This is a problem for investor-owned energy infrastructure, but it’s potentially transformative for community-owned systems (including public utilities, nonprofit electricity cooperatives, or local microgrids), where cheaper and more abundant energy can power a just transition and a new economy.

Twentieth-century investments in energy infrastructure, like the New Deal’s Rural Electrification Act of 1936 and its counterparts worldwide, formed the basis for the global industrial economy. If we can achieve a similar scale of commitment to renewable energy—prioritizing abundance and access over profit—it will lead to another jump in what’s possible in the material world, where what was previously unthinkably expensive becomes quotidian reality. For example, just like refining aluminum, desalinating seawater is intrinsically energy intensive. But in a world with cheap, clean electricity, residents of coastal cities could get a reliable supply of drinking water from oceanside water treatment plants instead of contested freshwater sources. 

Desalination is not the only energy-intensive process that would become viable. Aluminum, glass, and steel are among the most recycled materials in part because so much energy is needed to make them from their raw precursors that recovery is economically worthwhile. In contrast, plastics—in their near infinite variety—don’t lend themselves to mechanical recycling except in a handful of cases. Effectively recycling plastics means breaking them down into their chemical building blocks, ready to be put together into new forms. And since most plastics will burn to produce heat, going in the opposite direction—reassembling those carbon atoms into new plastics—requires a significant input of energy. It’s always been easier, cheaper, and more profitable to just dump the waste into landfills and make new plastics out of freshly extracted oil and gas. But if the energy came from inexpensive renewables, the whole economic equation of making plastics could change. Carbon dioxide could be pulled from the air and transformed into useful polymers using energy from the sun, with the waste plastic decomposed into raw materials so the process could begin again. 

If this sounds familiar, it’s because it’s how plants work. But, just like Hall and Héroult’s breakthrough for aluminum, new processes would require both energy and technological innovation. Decades of research have gone into creating new kinds of plastics from fossil fuels, and only a proportionally tiny amount into what happens to those plastics at the end of their lives. But now numerous companies, including Twelve, are building on new research to do just this kind of transformation, using renewably sourced energy to turn water and atmospheric carbon dioxide back into hydrocarbons, in the form of fuel and materials.

Prioritizing abundance and access over profit will lead to another jump in what’s possible.

Finally, it’s not just about plastic. If we succeed in building a world of even cheaper and more abundant energy but we again use it to supercharge extraction, consumption, and disposal, then we might “solve” the pressing crisis around energy while worsening the multiple environmental crises posed by pollution. Instead, we can think about community-led investments in energy infrastructure as spinning up a new industrial system in which clean, inexpensive renewable energy makes it possible to recover a broad range of materials. That would cut out the enormous costs of primary extraction and disposal, including environmental depredation and geopolitical conflict. 

Building momentum as fast as we can will limit the materials bill for the huge changes that decarbonization will entail, like replacing combustion-powered vehicles with their electric equivalents. This is already happening with companies like Ascend Elements , currently building a facility in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, to produce materials for new batteries from recycled lithium batteries. It’s financed by more than half a billion dollars of recent private investment that builds on $480 million in Department of Energy grants, and the work is based on fundamental research that was supported by the National Science Foundation. As more and more clean, renewable energy comes online, we need to continue with policies that support research and development on the new technologies required to recover all kinds of materials—together with regulations that account for the true costs of extraction and disposal. This will facilitate not just an energy transition but also a matter transition, ensuring that the industrial sector aligns with the health of our planet.

Climate change and energy

The problem with plug-in hybrids their drivers..

Plug-in hybrids are often sold as a transition to EVs, but new data from Europe shows we’re still underestimating the emissions they produce.

• Casey Crownhart archive page

Harvard has halted its long-planned atmospheric geoengineering experiment

The decision follows years of controversy and the departure of one of the program’s key researchers.

• James Temple archive page

Decarbonizing production of energy is a quick win 

Clean technologies, including carbon management platforms, enable the global energy industry to play a crucial role in the transition to net zero.

• ADNOC archive page

The hard lessons of Harvard’s failed geoengineering experiment

Some observers argue the end of SCoPEx should mark the end of such proposals. Others say any future experiments should proceed in markedly different ways.

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A Decade of Transformation: What We Have Learned Since RE Futures Showed What Was Possible

Ten Years After Visionary Renewable Electricity Futures Study Showed an 80% Renewable U.S. Grid Was Possible, NREL Experts Recount How They Have Built on Those Findings in the Decade Since—and What Is Next

June 6, 2022 | By Madeline Geocaris | Contact media relations

The year is 2012.

Wind generation is expanding rapidly in some regions of the United States. Still, wind and solar combined generate less than 3% of the U.S. electricity supply. Natural gas has reached record-low prices, and nearly 25 gigawatts of coal plants will retire over the next two years.

Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector are increasing, but much of the world has not imagined a clean, renewable-based power grid. Until July of that year.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released the Renewable Electricity Futures Study , or “RE Futures”—the most comprehensive analysis of a high-renewable U.S. power system at that time.

Results showed the nation’s abundant and diverse renewable energy resources could feasibly, both technically and economically, supply 80% of U.S. electricity in 2050—with a significant fraction from wind and solar. As modeled, the power system could successfully balance supply and demand every hour of the day, in every region—marking a new era in NREL's power grid analysis.

Over the past decade, our research has largely confirmed the key conclusions from RE Futures and, in some ways, identified that it might have been a conservative snapshot of the future. From today's vantage point, it will likely be easier to hit 80% renewables—or higher—than what we originally thought.

—Trieu Mai, senior energy analyst, NREL

Groundbreaking Findings: A Shift in the Clean Energy Narrative

With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), more than 110 experts from 35 organizations came together to explore whether a future U.S. power system with very high levels of renewable electricity generation was possible.

Using its now-publicly available Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model , NREL explored future power system scenarios at then unprecedented geographic and time resolution, with renewable generation levels ranging from 30% to 90%—focusing on 80%.

"We had been thinking for a while about how we could get to very high levels of renewable energy in our power sector analysis," said Sam Baldwin, chief science officer at DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, who came up with the idea for RE Futures and supported the study from beginning to end. "Studies at the time looked at renewable energy technologies individually, but that didn't consider the natural synergies between solar and wind and other resources like bioenergy, hydropower, and geothermal. It was incredibly fortunate that we had such an outstanding team of researchers across the entire renewable energy and energy efficiency community work on the study."

RE Futures' groundbreaking findings, published across four volumes, not only showed 80% was possible, but also there were many pathways to get there. To make that future a reality would require "a total transformation involving every element of the grid, from system planning through operation."

75,000+ downloads of RE Futures to date

Top 25 NREL publications of all time

Greentech Media's Interchange Podcast called RE Futures one of the most impactful pieces of research of the decade: "It was highly influential. … The study changed the narrative around clean energy and guided many studies that followed. It all started with RE Futures."

In the years that followed, NREL has collaborated with diverse organizations in the United States and beyond to explore possible pathways for power grid transformation to 80% or greater renewables—bringing forth new questions, new models, and new data to help find answers. "Over the past decade, our research has largely confirmed the key conclusions from RE Futures and, in some ways, identified that it might have been a conservative snapshot of the future," said Trieu Mai, senior energy analyst at NREL and co-author of the RE Futures study. "From today's vantage point, it will likely be easier to hit 80% renewables—or higher—than what we originally thought."

Here is what NREL's grid analysts have learned in the years since RE Futures.

Clean Energy Costs: Rapid Change Drives a Need for More Consistent Data

After the release of RE Futures, clean energy costs declined much faster than anyone expected.

RE Futures' main scenario assumed a utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) system in 2050 would cost between $2,200 and $2,700 per kilowatt. However, by 2020, a utility-scale PV system cost $1,000 per kilowatt.

RE Futures also estimated retail electricity price increases, reaching $29 to $60 per megawatt-hour in 2050 with 80% renewables. Today, studies estimate retail electricity prices of less than $5 per megawatt-hour in 2050 with 80% renewables.

"I don't think anybody really envisioned how quickly many of the technology advances would materialize," said Maureen Hand, NREL project lead of RE Futures and now air resources engineer for the California Air Resources Board.

Clean Energy Costs: RE Futures vs. Actual, 2010–2020

• Land-based Wind
• Utility-scale PV
• 8-hour Batteries

Over the last decade, the cost of clean energy technologies has declined faster than anyone expected or was estimated in RE Futures, as shown here with land-based wind, utility-scale solar, and 8-hour batteries. Note: the capital costs are in real 2020 dollars per kilowatt and the RE Futures estimates did not account for construction interest and interconnection costs.

In response to the rapid change, NREL launched a new effort in 2015 with support from DOE to ensure energy analyses use consistent, timely assumptions. Two products came out of the effort.

The Standard Scenarios provided a robust suite of defined scenarios for U.S. power sector evolution through 2050, and the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) included detailed cost and performance data for renewable and conventional technologies. Together, the free, open-source products offered a standard modeling approach to apply to all power system analyses.

Every year, NREL updates and releases the Standard Scenarios and ATB, which are used by energy analysts, modelers, and industry experts. The ATB has had over 85,000 users from 144 countries to date.

NREL is expanding both the Standard Scenarios and ATB to include a broader range of power sector technologies—and in 2020, the ATB included the transportation sector for the first time, offering a template for other sectors.

Text version

Electrification: Increasing Demand Could Fundamentally Change How We Operate the Future Grid

To understand whether a high-renewable power system was feasible, RE Futures analyzed future end-use electricity demand in buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors with increasing population and energy efficiency.

It was one of the few power grid studies at the time to consider flexible loads from plug-in electric vehicles, which made up less than 0.2% of vehicles on the road in 2012. RE Futures assumed 40% of vehicles would be electric in 2050.

Today, EVs have broken into the mass market. Ten percent of new cars globally are electric, with over 1.7 million on U.S. roads as of 2020. By mid-2021, plug-in electric vehicle sales surpassed 2 million for the first time.

To dive deep into the potential impacts of widespread electrification in all U.S. economic sectors—commercial and residential buildings, transportation, and industry—NREL launched the multiyear Electrification Futures Study (EFS) with funding from DOE.

NREL conducted groundbreaking national-scale simulations of U.S. power system hourly operations, costs, and emissions to understand the interactions between electrification, demand-side flexibility, and renewable energy deployment.

A series of one-day plots of future power system operations with high electrification and high renewable generation, modeled by the Electrification Futures Study. In the flexible load dispatch panel, the solid portion (above 0) represents shifted electricity consumption, and the lighter portion (below 0) represents increased electricity consumption. As more demand-side flexibility is added to the power system, the load shape changes, resulting in less curtailment, fewer ramp-ups of natural gas units, and less storage is used.

In the high electrification scenario—now assuming about 86% of vehicles are electric in 2050—the Electrification Futures Study modeled that electric load increases 67% in 2050 and installed capacity would need to double. Flexible loads from EV charging and operations of end-use equipment in buildings and industry help renewable generation meet new electrified demands and reduce annual emissions.

"Building on RE Futures, the Electrification Futures Study found that all sources of grid flexibility—including transmission and inter-regional power transfers, flexible generation, storage, and demand-side sources of flexibility—will likely be important for efficiently operating a power system with high electrification and high renewable energy deployment," said Caitlin Murphy, senior energy analyst at NREL and co-author of the Electrification Futures study.

Transmission: Unlocking a More Resilient, Flexible Grid

The role of the transmission system in a high-renewable power system was an important consideration in RE Futures.

The three major portions of the U.S. power system—the Western Interconnection, the Eastern Interconnection, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas—operate virtually independently. Their few connections are aging rapidly and present operational challenges with increasing variable generation—offering an opportunity to modernize the grid.

NREL's foundational Western Wind and Solar Integration Study , released in three phases around the time of RE Futures, examined power system operations of integrating up to 35% wind and solar in large portions of the Eastern and Western Interconnections. The studies concluded that it is technically feasible to accommodate 35% wind and solar with operational changes, including much greater coordination of power system operations across larger geographic areas, scheduling generation on a sub-hourly basis, and increasing utilization of existing transmission.

RE Futures revealed that 80% renewable generation would require additional transmission to ensure power system flexibility—and it is more economical to build out transmission from sites with high-quality wind and solar, than to site wind and solar locations with lower-quality resources but closer to the load.

NREL built on that finding a few years later in the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) . Using new high-performance computing capabilities and innovative visualization tools, NREL examined operations of the Eastern Interconnection—the largest power grid in the world—at the five-minute timescale with 30% wind and solar. Results showed the power system could operate at those levels, but flows of power across the Eastern Interconnection could change more rapidly and frequently—requiring greater coordination of regional grid operations.

ERGIS was the capstone of a family of detailed NREL-led grid integration studies of 30%–35% wind and solar, leading to studies with higher levels as U.S. renewable generation has increased.

In 2020, wind produced 8.4% of U.S. electricity, or enough to power more than 31 million homes—tripling since RE Futures was released. Most of the growth has taken place in Midwest and Southwest states, with Iowa, North Dakota, and Kansas generating enough wind and solar power to meet half of their electricity demand. Transmission upgrades have not kept up with the dramatic growth.

To understand the value of strengthening ties between the Eastern and Western grids, NREL launched the Interconnections Seam Study . Using enhanced computational and visualization capabilities first demonstrated in ERGIS, NREL modeled conceptual transmission designs under different scenarios through the year 2038.

"With variable renewable resources becoming a larger share of our nation's electricity supply, the ability to transfer those resources across regions could be incredibly valuable—whether that's in periods of power system stress, like extreme weather, or during a typical day to take advantage of the best available resources," said Greg Brinkman, NREL senior research engineer and co-author of the Interconnections Seam Study and RE Futures.

Results showed that, under all designs and scenarios, uniting the Eastern and Western U.S. electric grids would strengthen the power system's ability to share generation resources and flexibility across regions—providing reliable electricity and seeing cost savings.

NREL energy analyst Jonathan Ho presents on the Interconnection Seams Study. Photo by Werner Slocum, NREL

And NREL did not just explore expanding transmission across the U.S. grid. NREL took it to the continental level with the North American Renewable Integration Study , which modeled greater power-system coordination across all of North America and between regions within each country through 2050.

As modeled, expanding international transmission would provide up to $30 billion (2018 $US) of net value to the continental power system between 2020 and 2050—increasing power system reliability and enabling exchange of load and renewable generation diversity between regions.

The NREL team has also expanded its grid integration research beyond North America and offered expertise to India, the Philippines, Vietnam, China, and more—even informing country-specific and international clean energy plans.

Today, 70% of U.S. transmission lines are 25 years old or older or at full capacity. RE Futures' emphasis on the need for expanded transmission still rings true, with Congress and regulators at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission urging to rebuild America's critical infrastructure, including transmission expansion—which could pay for itself multiple times over.

Energy Storage: The Unexpected Player in a Low-Carbon Grid

When RE Futures was released, energy storage was equivalent to 2% of U.S. power capacity, nearly all of which was pumped-storage hydropower.

Still, RE Futures saw energy storage as another potentially important contributor of power system flexibility to support large-scale deployment of wind and solar. The study estimated there could be 152 gigawatts of storage capacity in 2050 , with most new storage additions coming from compressed air energy storage and pumped-storage hydropower. Lithium-ion batteries were not on the radar at the time because they averaged nearly $1,200 per kilowatt-hour.

However, lithium-ion battery prices rapidly fell in the subsequent years due to the rise of battery-powered EVs—dropping to about $130 per kilowatt-hour in 2020—and several other storage technologies entered the market. In addition, more instances of power system disruptions due to weather disasters drove a greater focus on maintaining a reliable and resilient power system. Suddenly, storage was poised to play a bigger role than expected.

NREL launched the multiyear Storage Futures Study with support from DOE's Energy Storage Grand Challenge . By adding new storage capabilities to ReEDS, NREL studied how much value storage could provide to the grid and behind the meter, how much could be economically deployed, and how high storage levels might impact power system operations.

Unlike RE Futures, the study focused primarily on the potential of lithium-ion batteries, given their recent and anticipated cost declines with the oncoming proliferation of EVs.

Estimated capital costs for 2- to 10-hour battery energy storage systems through 2050, modeled by the Storage Futures Study. Costs continue to drop rapidly through 2030 before beginning to level out, with less rapid declines through 2050.

The striking result across the six phases of the Storage Futures Study is that energy storage deployment has the potential to increase significantly—reaching at least five times today's capacity in 2050. These storage levels would enable integrating at least 80% renewables on the U.S. grid. As modeled, lithium-ion batteries will likely continue to dominate near-term deployments, but other technologies like closed-loop pumped hydropower and fuel cells for long-duration storage could become more cost-competitive in the future.

"Each phase of the Storage Futures Study indicated a potential coming wave of energy storage," said Nate Blair, NREL principal investigator of the study. "Overall, we find energy storage could play an important role in a flexible, resilient, low-carbon future grid."

Study results revealed energy storage could not only help the future grid operate more efficiently by meeting peak demand but also increase the use of new and existing transmission lines. At the same time, it could offset the need to build new polluting power plants.

"Since RE Futures, a new framework has emerged for storage deployment," said Paul Denholm, senior energy analyst at NREL and co-author of RE Futures and the Storage Futures Study. "This framework links storage duration with the value of services it can provide to the grid. As shorter-duration storage applications are met and storage costs continue to decline, opportunities for longer-duration storage will grow. In the future, we could see multiday or even seasonal storage."

Although energy storage is still a small fraction of the U.S. power sector today, NREL expects it will likely exceed what RE Futures thought and play an integral role in determining the cost-optimal grid mix of the future.

100% Clean Energy: Setting Sights on a New Target

By 2019, the cost of PV had dropped 71% for distributed PV and 80% for utility-scale PV since RE Futures. The 2 millionth solar PV system was installed in the United States, with an additional million installed by summer 2021. The cost of wind decreased 40% since RE Futures, even as performance improved.

U.S. electricity generation from renewable sources (23%) exceeded coal-fired generation (20%) for the first time in 2019—marking a new era in our energy landscape.

As of December 2020, more than 260 large corporations and 200 cities and counties in the United States pledged to meet 100% of their electricity needs with renewables over the coming decades—including Los Angeles, whose city council announced in 2016 a goal of 100% clean energy by 2045.

To determine data-driven pathways to reach this ambitious goal, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power partnered with NREL on the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100).

NREL scaled up its modeling and analysis capabilities to unprecedented levels. The team ran millions of simulations of future scenarios to evaluate a range of how LADWP's power system could evolve to 100% renewables—while maintaining reliable power for LA customers. The study was the most comprehensive, detailed analysis to date of an entirely renewable-based grid as complex as LA's.

This video shows a visualization of future electric vehicle loads in Los Angeles developed for the LA100 study.

Results showed LA's goal is achievable as soon as 2035 with rapid deployment of wind, solar, and storage technologies this decade—showing it is possible to go even further than RE Futures' then-visionary 80% target. And the same methodology from LA100 can be used for more cities seeking insights on the road to clean and equitable energy futures.

But LA100 also revealed that the most challenging—and costly—part of reaching a fully renewable grid is the final stretch: the last 10%–20% of energy demand that cannot be easily served by wind, solar, and conventional storage, but is crucial to maintaining reliability in the face of extreme events.

A few months after LA100's release, NREL published new research looking at that challenge at the national scale. NREL again used the ReEDS model, now including additional enhancements to quantify how different assumptions about how the power system might evolve can impact future system costs. The results show costs can increase nonlinearly for the last few percent toward 100%, which could drive interest in non-electric-sector investments that achieve similar decarbonization objectives with a lower total tab.

Energy Justice: Ensuring All Communities Reap the Benefits of Cleaner Grids

When RE Futures was published, energy justice had relatively recently emerged as a crosscutting research discipline for NREL, but the underlying challenge had existed for decades.

Power system planning has historically focused on prioritizing costs and efficiency over the experiences of some communities. Vulnerable communities have long endured the negative aspects of energy—like pollution, higher proportional household spending on energy bills, and utility shutoffs—without as many opportunities to access benefits like rooftop solar panels, energy efficiency programs, and well-paying energy jobs. Recently, efforts like the federal government's Justice40 Initiative have built momentum around making sure the benefits of cleaner power systems are delivered broadly to all communities—and this was a critical component of NREL's LA100 study.

In LA, almost 50% of census tracts are designated as disadvantaged. Recognizing this, the city of Los Angeles identified environmental justice as both a key motivation and an intended outcome for the study.

The LA100 study results revealed that while all communities in Los Angeles will share in the benefits of the clean energy transition, improving equity in participation and outcomes requires intentionally designed policies and programs.

The study also revealed the importance of embedding the community in the research process to ensure results reflect local concerns and priorities.

"Every phase of the LA100 study was guided by the LA100 Advisory Group, which included members of LA neighborhood councils, industry, city government, and others," said Jaquelin Cochran, NREL principal investigator of LA100. "We also worked directly with the broader community through one-on-one listening sessions with different environmental justice groups and public outreach events presented in both Spanish and English to ensure Spanish-speaking Angelenos could participate."

Members of NREL, LADWP, and the LA100 Advisory Group tour LADWP’s Pine Tree Wind and Solar Farm. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL

After the LA100 study's release, LADWP again joined forces with NREL in 2021 on the new LA100 Equity Strategies project , which picks up where LA100 left off to ensure the city's transition to 100% carbon-free power is equitable.

The project will analyze how to improve or expand LADWP programs to achieve equity for disadvantaged communities, incorporating what community members themselves feel is needed to achieve more equitable outcomes. LA100 Equity Strategies will include a robust community engagement process with the goal of producing community-tailored results.

"NREL's vision means leading an energy transition in which solutions are inclusively designed and benefits are equitably distributed," said Kate Anderson, LA100 Equity Strategies lead at NREL. "With LA100 Equity Strategies, we are continuing our mission-driven work to support communities in becoming active participants in advancing their energy visions."

The Next Decade: Decarbonization Goals Drive Rapid—and Equitable—Clean Energy Deployment

Today, RE Futures' vision of 80% renewable energy for the United States is closer than ever, with ambitious federal emissions-reduction targets and ever-decreasing clean energy costs.

"It's incredible what we can achieve together when we put our minds to it," said Ryan Wiser, co-author of RE Futures and senior scientist at Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory. "RE Futures helped us imagine a U.S. economy powered by clean, renewable energy and gave us the fortitude to pursue the scientific advancements needed to see that vision through. What once seemed far-fetched has become normal as we think about deep, economy-wide decarbonization."

Between RE Futures and 2020, U.S. wind, solar, and geothermal generation increased at an annual compound growth rate of 15%. If we are able to overcome future challenges and this rate continues, wind, solar, and geothermal could produce enough electricity to meet all current U.S. electricity demand by 2035.

As the power system has undergone immense change, NREL has made analytical advances that enable studying future scenarios with greater detail and complexity—answering more questions about the future power grid and earning R&D 100 Awards . ReEDS just surpassed 1,000 external users since it became publicly available in 2019.

"The past decade we have learned a lot about potential energy transition solutions, and falling technology costs have opened the door to new possibilities," said Doug Arent, executive director of strategic public-private partnerships at NREL. "Now we are broadening our scope to the transformational level, focusing on how to increase the speed and scale of clean energy economies around the world through continued research, partnerships, and knowledge sharing."

NREL is accelerating energy system decarbonization both globally through the Net Zero World Initiative and 21st Century Power Partnership and domestically through a variety of initiatives, including Accelerating Clean Energy at Scale . These broad-scale collaborations signal growing readiness to move from theoretical explorations to real-world deployment of clean energy solutions.

While there has been great progress since RE Futures, work still remains.

The energy transition has brought new, critically important questions that were not studied in RE Futures: siting considerations, energy equity concerns, and policy, regulatory, and market design challenges. Plus, there are still several technical considerations that need to be explored for integrating large amounts of renewables, like how to maintain inertia or fault protection on the grid—services that are traditionally supported by conventional generators.

"These are complex, multidisciplinary challenges," Trieu Mai said. "These questions will require more collaboration and next-level power grid analysis over the coming decade. Just imagine the next decade of breakthroughs."

Learn more about energy analysis and grid modernization at NREL.

Renewable Energy

A Golden Age of Renewables Is Beginning, and California Is Leading the Way

California has hit record-breaking milestones in renewable electricity generation, showing that wind, water and solar are ready to cover our electricity needs

Mark Z. Jacobson

Renewable Energy Shatters Records in the U.S.

The U.S. has never had as much wind, solar and hydropower. But experts say it’s not enough to meet future electricity demand

Benjamin Storrow, E&E News

How the Solar Eclipse Will Impact Electricity Supplies

This April’s total solar eclipse will present a unique challenge to power grid operators because of the decline in solar power generation

Vahe Peroomian, The Conversation US

Renewable Power Set to Surpass Coal Globally by 2025

Renewable energy will surpass coal power by 2025 and, with nuclear energy, will account for nearly half the world’s power generation by 2026, the International Energy Agency forecasts

Jason Plautz, E&E News

Renewable Energy Capacity Could More Than Double by 2030

China is running away with clean energy expansion, with the E.U. and U.S. following far behind

Sara Schonhardt, E&E News

The U.S. Energy Transition Explained in 8 Numbers

Solar and natural gas surged last year in the U.S., while wind stumbled

There’s a Better Way to Mine for Electric Vehicle Batteries

We do not want to trade the harm of emissions from gasoline vehicles for the harm caused by unsustainable mining practices

Beia Spiller, Sangita Kannan

Google Taps Hot Rocks to Cool Climate

The potential of geothermal energy as a carbon-free power source is well known. Now companies such as Google are helping to unlock it

Commercial Airliner Is First to Cross Atlantic with Biofuel Power

Virgin Atlantic flew the first large commercial jet to traverse the Atlantic with 100 percent sustainable aviation fuel

Brian Dabbs, E&E News

U.S. Carbon Emissions Set to Fall Again, a Key Sign of Progress

A projected drop in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions—one of the largest of the past decade—is still not enough to meet the country’s commitments under the Paris climate accord

This Biophysicist 'Sun Queen' Harnessed Solar Power

Hungarian-American biophysicist and inventor Mária Telkes illuminated the field of solar energy. She invented a solar oven, a solar desalination kit and, in the late 1940s, designed one of the first solar-heated houses

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U.S. and China Reach New Climate Agreement

China and the U.S. agreed to new greenhouse gas reduction commitments ahead of upcoming climate talks, but the relationship between the world’s top two emitters remains “challenging”

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Climate Forward

The shift to renewable energy is speeding up. here’s how..

The head of the world’s leading energy organization called the war in Ukraine an “accelerator” of the transition.

By Somini Sengupta

Wars have unintended consequences.

Russia’s war in Ukraine seems to have sped up the global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables.

This is a big deal. Most of us take for granted that we will enter a dark room and flick on the lights, that our homes will be warm in winter, that we will look out the window of a car and watch the world go by.

But what powers our lives is undergoing a huge change.

Consider three recent developments.

First, according to the International Energy Agency, an estimated $1.4 trillion poured into “clean energy” projects in 2022, a category that includes solar farms, batteries and electric vehicle charging stations. That’s more than ever before, and more than the money that poured into new oil and gas projects. Fatih Birol, the head of the agency, described the energy crisis spurred by the Russian invasion as “an accelerator for clean energy transitions.”

Second, BloombergNEF, a research firm, described this direction of change in a report published last week . Investments in low-carbon energy “reached parity” with capital aimed at expanding fossil fuels, it said.

And finally, the oil giant BP said this week that it expected the war in Ukraine would push countries to ramp up renewable energy projects for the sake of energy security, and that oil and gas demand could peak sooner than the company had anticipated just a year ago.

Spoiler alert: The shift away from fossil fuels isn’t happening fast enough to stay within relatively safe boundaries of climate change. For that to happen, a handful of big emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America will need more renewable energy projects. Financing those projects is more expensive in the countries of the global south than it would be in Europe and North America.

You’re going to hear a lot more going forward about the energy transition. It’s worth pausing for a minute today and looking at how big these changes are.

Energy security doesn’t mean fossil fuels anymore.

Nearly a year ago, right after the Russian invasion, the oil and gas industry made a full-throated pitch that it was key to energy security and affordability. For a while, there was lots of hand-wringing about whether the world’s climate goals would be sacrificed at the altar of energy security.

But since then, renewable projects have been ramped up, not just on climate grounds, but rather in the name of energy security. Renewables are increasingly affordable, once they’re built, and they offer security as well.

In Europe, wind and solar accounted for 22 percent of electricity generation last year, overtaking for the first time the share of gas (20 percent) and coal (16 percent), according to Ember, a research firm .

“In 2023, Europe is set to witness a huge fall in fossil fuels — of coal power, yes, but especially gas power,” said the Ember report, which published on Tuesday.

Globally, renewable energy installations grew by 25 percent in 2022.

China’s investments exceeded, by a long shot, that of every other country.

Especially in the industrialized world, many people are going electric.

Never mind Tesla’s troubles. The electric car transition is in high gear.

In 2022, nearly 15 percent of all new car sales globally were electric, compared to 3 percent of all new car sales in 2019, according to the I.E.A . China dominates the market. More electric cars were sold in China than anywhere else. China’s biggest electric car and bus maker, BYD, has a higher global market share than Tesla.

At this pace, Birol said in an interview with Times journalists on Friday, by 2030, every second car sold in the biggest car markets — China, the United States and Europe — will be powered by electricity, not fossil fuels.

The heat pump became a hot item, especially in Europe this winter.

That’s a huge shift. For more than a hundred years, we have heated buildings with coal, oil, gas and wood. Globally, heat pump sales grew by 15 percent, according to the I.E.A. In some European countries, sales doubled in the first few months of 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

We’re not moving fast enough, though.

These changes, accelerated by the Russian invasion, are improving the world’s “clean energy transition prospects,” Birol said, though it will not be enough to stay within what scientists consider safe boundaries: limiting average global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius between the mid-19th century and the end of this century.

That will need better financing terms for emerging economies.

I hear this often from diplomats and entrepreneurs trying to build renewable energy projects in countries like India, Brazil and South Africa. It’s still way too expensive to borrow money.

If you want to develop a solar project in Brazil or India, Birol said, you’re likely to pay three times more for financing than if you were to build the same project in Europe.

That has huge climate implications. The energy demands of these big emerging economies are growing fast. If they can’t finance renewables, they’ll turn to gas instead. Or worse, to coal.

“The biggest hurdle in front of us is the cost of capital,” Birol said.

From the Wirecutter

The New York Times product review website suggests 10 free, or nearly free, ways to save money on heat and hot water .

Essential news from The Times

On the industry payroll: The health risks of gas stoves are under close scrutiny. Meet the scientist who gets paid by fossil fuel interests to speak on their behalf .

Alaska mine project blocked: The E.P.A. will ban the disposal of industrial waste in the Bristol Bay watershed, killing plans for a mine that could have threatened a rich salmon fishery .

Climate start-ups shine: Tech workers and investors are flocking to start-ups that aim to combat climate change .

The earth moves: Regulators and scientists say fracking operations are causing a surge in seismic activity in Texas .

China’s slowdown: Oil and gas consumption fell in 2022 for the first time since 1990 as the government kept many cities under lockdown. A rebound is expected this year .

A less green Baghdad: A real estate boom in one of the largest cities in the Arab world is erasing the gardens that have helped to moderate temperature increases .

Unexpected fishing buddies: Bottlenose dolphins and Brazilian fishermen are cooperating. It means more fish for both .

From outside The Times

The Science Friday podcast interviewed Juan Pablo Culasso, a professional birder who is blind, about designing accessible forest trails in his native Colombia .

From Bloomberg: A prominent investment research firm assailed Gautam Adani, the Indian tycoon who made a fortune from coal. Adani has lost billions since .

Yale Climate Connections recommended twelve books with advice for people who want to take action on climate change .

The Albuquerque Journal reported on companies using oil drilling technology to tap New Mexico’s geothermal potential .

The Colorado River can no longer meet the water needs of an arid West. The Los Angeles Times is documenting the crisis in a series of articles, videos and podcasts .

Before you go: How to not be complicit

The Indigenous author and scientist Robin Wall Kimmerer is a messenger for ecological care. In an interview with The New York Times Magazine, she talks about how it’s possible for humans to live well and for nature to flourish, and about ways to push back at the powerful forces of destruction around us. “I can’t topple Monsanto, but I can plant an organic garden ,” she said.

Thanks for being a subscriber. We’ll be back on Friday.

Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward. Read past editions of the newsletter here .

If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here . Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here .

Reach us at [email protected] . We read every message, and reply to many!

Somini Sengupta is The Times’s international climate correspondent. She has also covered the Middle East, West Africa and South Asia and is the author of the book, “The End of Karma: Hope and Fury Among India’s Young.” More about Somini Sengupta

Renewable Energy

Renewable energy sources are growing quickly and will play a vital role in tackling climate change..

Since the Industrial Revolution, the energy mix of most countries across the world has become dominated by fossil fuels. This has major implications for the global climate, as well as for human health. Three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions result from the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Fossil fuels are responsible for large amounts of local air pollution – a health problem that leads to at least 5 million premature deaths each year.

To reduce CO 2 emissions and local air pollution, the world needs to rapidly shift towards low-carbon sources of energy – nuclear and renewable technologies.

Renewable energy will play a key role in decarbonizing our energy systems in the coming decades. But how rapidly is our production of renewable energy changing? What technologies look most promising in transforming our energy mix?

In this article we look at the data on renewable energy technologies across the world; what share of energy they account for today, and how quickly this is changing.

Renewable energy generation

How much of our primary energy comes from renewables.

We often hear about the rapid growth of renewable technologies in media reports. But how much of an impact has this growth had on our energy systems?

In this interactive chart, we see the share of primary energy consumption that came from renewable technologies – the combination of hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tidal, and modern biofuels. Traditional biomass – which can be an important energy source in lower-income settings is not included.

Note that this data is based on primary energy calculated by the 'substitution method' which attempts to correct for the inefficiencies in fossil fuel production. It does this by converting non-fossil fuel sources to their 'input equivalents': the amount of primary energy that would be required to produce the same amount of energy if it came from fossil fuels.

Approximately one-seventh of the world's primary energy is now sourced from renewable technologies.

Note that this is based on renewable energy's share in the energy mix. Energy consumption represents the sum of electricity, transport, and heating. We look at the electricity mix later in this article.

Breakdown of renewables in the energy mix

In the section above we looked at what share renewable technologies collectively accounted for in the energy mix.

In the charts shown here, we look at the breakdown of renewable technologies by their components – hydropower, solar, wind, and others.

The first chart shows this as a stacked area chart, which allows us to more readily see the breakdown of the renewable mix and the relative contribution of each. The second chart is shown as a line chart, allowing us to see more clearly how each source is changing over time.

Globally we see that hydropower is by far the largest modern renewable source. However, we also see wind and solar power both growing rapidly.

Renewables in the electricity mix

How much of our electricity comes from renewables.

In the sections above we looked at the role of renewables in the total energy mix . This includes not only electricity but also transport and heating. Electricity forms only one component of energy consumption.

Since transport and heating tend to be harder to decarbonize – they are more reliant on oil and gas – renewables tend to have a higher share in the electricity mix versus the total energy mix.

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from renewable technologies.

Globally, almost one-third of our electricity comes from renewables.

Hydropower generation

Hydroelectric power has been one of our oldest and largest sources of low-carbon energy. Hydroelectric generation at scale dates back more than a century, and is still our largest renewable source – excluding traditional biomass, it still accounts for approximately half of renewable generation.

However, the scale of hydroelectric power generation varies significantly across the world. This interactive chart shows its contribution by country.

Share of primary energy that comes from hydropower

This interactive chart shows the share of primary energy that comes from hydropower.

Share of electricity that comes from hydropower

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from hydropower.

Wind energy

Wind energy generation.

This interactive chart shows the amount of energy generated from wind each year. This includes both onshore and offshore wind farms.

Wind generation at scale – compared to hydropower, for example – is a relatively modern renewable energy source but is growing quickly in many countries across the world.

Installed wind capacity

The previous section looked at the energy output from wind farms across the world. Energy output is a function of power (installed capacity) multiplied by the time of generation.

Energy generation is therefore a function of how much wind capacity is installed. This interactive chart shows installed wind capacity – including both onshore and offshore – across the world.

Share of primary energy that comes from wind

This interactive chart shows the share of primary energy that comes from wind.

Share of electricity that comes from wind

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from wind.

Solar energy

Solar energy generation.

This interactive chart shows the amount of energy generated from solar power each year.

Solar generation at scale – compared to hydropower, for example – is a relatively modern renewable energy source but is growing quickly in many countries across the world.

Installed solar capacity

The previous section looked at the energy output from solar across the world. Energy output is a function of power (installed capacity) multiplied by the time of generation.

Energy generation is therefore a function of how much solar capacity is installed. This interactive chart shows installed solar capacity across the world.

Share of primary energy that comes from solar

This interactive chart shows the share of primary energy that comes from solar power.

Share of electricity that comes from solar

This interactive chart shows the share of electricity that comes from solar power.

Biofuel production

Traditional biomass – the burning of charcoal, organic wastes, and crop residues – was an important energy source for a long period of human history. It remains an important source in lower-income settings today. However, high-quality estimates of energy consumption from these sources are difficult to find. The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy – our main data source on energy – only publishes data on commercially traded energy, so traditional biomass is not included.

However, modern biofuels are included in this energy data. Bioethanol and biodiesel – fuel made from crops such as corn, sugarcane, hemp, and cassava – are now a key transport fuel in many countries.

This interactive chart shows modern biofuel production across the world.

Installed geothermal capacity

This interactive chart shows the installed capacity of geothermal energy across the world.

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Renewable energy transforming the landscape

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Renewable energy, if supported by governments, can “truly change the landscape” in terms of achieving equitable access to affordable and clean energy, but only if they can move from “commitment to action”, according to the Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Renewable energy is generally defined as any energy source that is continuously replenished. It includes solar and wind power as well as bioenergy (organic matter burned as fuel) and hydroelectric power. 

IRENA* chief Francesco La Camera spoke to UN News ahead of a special meeting on Friday on transitioning to sustainable sources of energy which is taking place at the UN Headquarters in New York as part of the first ever  Sustainability Week .

Ensuring access to affordable reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all people, wherever they are in the world, is the aim of  Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).

UN News: What challenges have you faced when trying to persuade governments, international organisations and other stakeholders to embrace renewable energy?

Francesco La Camera: There are no difficulties in persuading governments to adopt renewable energy, but from the commitments to the action, there is always something lagging.  

What is important in relation to the countries, with our members, is to support them in finding the right way to translate commitment into action. I think this is the challenge we have to face: how we can move to tripling renewable installation capacity by 2030? Now what is at stake is how we can really achieve this goal.

UN News: How can these challenges be overcome to ensure that countries commit and take action?

Francesco La Camera: All the countries have made commitments. We have to rewrite the way international cooperation works. In this respect, all different entities involved must make an effort.  

For example, at IRENA, we have been working with President William Ruto of Kenya to forge a partnership to accelerate the renewable energy deployment in Africa. This initiative – Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa’ (APRA) – was launched during the first Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi last year, and a joint statement was signed by leaders of APRA at COP28 to drive the renewable energy transition as a strategic solution to energy access, security and green growth in Africa. 

We now have seven African countries, including Kenya, as well as developed countries such as Denmark, Germany, the US, and we also have the [United Arab Emirates] UAE involved. This is an example of how we are trying to rewrite the landscape of international cooperation. We are building the plan and supporting these countries in creating their own plans for fostering renewables. Together we transform to a new international cooperation mechanism to turn their plans into reality.

UN News: Are there notable differences in approaches, commitments and reactions between developing and developed countries when it comes to the energy transition?

Francesco La Camera:  The developed world has to change the system. But, the developing countries can leap forward and transition directly to a new energy system as there is a lack of real energy systems. The main difference lies in the status of the energy system in these different parts of world, which is reflected largely in the existing inequality.

The other aspect is that the developed countries may have the tools, instruments and financial resources to drive the changes. 

The developing world needs support in many aspects. Countries require financial and technological support to exchange experiences and technology. These are barriers that need to be overcome today to speed up the transition, especially in Africa. 

In this respect, Africa is probably the most important powerhouse in the world for renewable energy and green hydrogen [a clean and renewable energy carrier]. But, Africa lacks the infrastructure to make this potential beneficial to its people, which would also benefit the world. Infrastructure such as ports, pipelines and civil infrastructure are decisive and crucial.

UN News: Could you give us an example of a site visit where you witnessed the critical role of renewable energy in achieving SDG 7 by 2030?

Francesco La Camera: One example that impressed me was Mauritius, where our support for solar panel installation in private houses, private buildings and public buildings has been truly transforming the landscape, giving a big push for achieving SDG 7. 

UN News: Do you think the examples you mentioned can be replicated elsewhere in the world?

Francesco La Camera: To speed up the transition, we need to overcome some structural barriers that exist today. Infrastructure is the first barrier to overcome. Without efficient electricity and without providing storage interconnectivity, flexibility and balancing the grids, we cannot progress. Modernising and building infrastructure where it is absent is the top priority. 

There are also the problems linking to the existing legal framework. The market is still designed in a way that does not favour the deployment of renewables. There are still a lot of subsidies for fossil fuel projects which I think should be tackled immediately. 

Additionally, power purchase agreements are designed in a way that discourages renewable energy development. Market pricing mechanisms often do not support renewables because renewables need long-term contracts for stability and security in the electricity provided and the cost to be paid. 

Finally, we need skilled professionals and a skillful workforce to be deployed on the ground.

We have to overcome these three barriers if we truly want the energy system to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, as called for at COP28 in Dubai a few months ago.

UN News: How can normal citizens contribute to the renewable energy transition?

Francesco La Camera: We are striving to be more efficient in all our choices, but what is more important is the legal environment where everyone feels compelled to take action. We cannot only call for the moral imperatives. Society also makes an easier and simpler environment for people to make the right choices in terms of efficiency and energy conservation.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

* IRENA is an intergovernmental agency aiming to support countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future. Earlier this year on 26 January, the UN observed the first International Day of Clean Energy, which coincides IRENA’s founding anniversary.

Renewable-energy development in a net-zero world

The rapid maturation of wind and solar power has been nothing short of astonishing. Not long ago, the development of new solar and wind farms was typically driven by small regional players, and the cost was significantly higher than that of a coal plant. Today, the cost of renewables has plummeted, and many solar and wind projects are undertaken by large multinational companies, which often also announce staggering development targets.

About the authors

This article is a collaborative effort by Florian Heineke, Nadine Janecke, Holger Klärner, Florian Kühn , Humayun Tai , and Raffael Winter , representing views from McKinsey’s Electric Power & Natural Gas Practice.

Over the past decade, the growth of renewable energy has consistently and dramatically outperformed nearly all expectations (Exhibit 1). Upward corrections of estimates have become something of a ritual.

But this growth story is just getting started. As countries aim to reach ambitious decarbonization targets, renewable energy—led by wind and solar—is poised to become the backbone of the world’s power supply. Along with capacity additions from major energy providers, new types of players are entering the market (Exhibit 2). Today’s fast followers include major oil and gas companies, which aim to shift their business models to profit from the increased demand for renewables and the electrification of vehicles, and private-equity players and institutional investors that make renewable energy a central component of their investment strategy. Leaders in the shipping industry are investing in renewables to enable the production of hydrogen and ammonia as zero-emission fuel sources; steel manufacturers are eyeing green hydrogen to decarbonize their steel production, with renewables providing the green electricity for the process. Car manufacturing companies are also striking renewable-energy deals to help power their operations and manufacturing, as well as making investments in wind and solar projects.

McKinsey estimates that by 2026, global renewable-electricity capacity will rise more than 80 percent from 2020 levels (to more than 5,022 gigawatts). 1 Global Energy Perspective 2022 , McKinsey, April 2022. Of this growth, two-thirds will come from wind and solar, an increase of 150 percent (3,404 gigawatts). By 2035, renewables will generate 60 percent of the world’s electricity. 2 Global Energy Perspective 2022 , McKinsey, April 2022. But even these projections might be too low. Three years ago, we looked at advances made by renewable energy and asked, “How much faster can they grow?” 3 “ Rethinking the renewable strategy for an age of global competition ,” McKinsey, October 11, 2019. The answer is: faster than you think they can.

Three core capabilities for wind and solar developers

This race to build additional solar and wind capacity increases the pressure on developers to execute efficiently and heightens competition for finite resources. Still, the three winning capabilities we identified three years ago as important for building or expanding a renewables business are even more critical now. They form the bedrock required to tackle upcoming challenges:

• Value-chain excellence. As competition intensifies and government support for renewables subsides, strong capabilities across the entire value chain are the required cost of admission. For instance, gaining access to scarce amounts of attractive land will require differentiation in project origination and development. As margins squeeze and operators’ exposure to risk increases, ambitious companies will want to explore new, profitable offtake markets for their electricity, such as data centers or hydrogen electrolyzers for industrial production.
• Economies of scale and skill. Driven by the rapid scaling of the renewables industry, many players have built efficient operating models. However, finding employees with the necessary skills and capabilities, particularly in high-demand areas such as project development and engineering, is becoming a bottleneck for growth ambitions.
• Agile operating model. Agility and speed will be key in finding innovative ways to integrate partners and in establishing robust, high-performing supply chains. They will also enable businesses to shift resources quickly to the biggest value pools and respond to changes in the landscape, such as shifting regulations or price volatility.

Four challenges that will define the new era of renewable energy

Leveraging these capabilities as a strong foundation, successful renewables developers must navigate an increasingly complex and competitive landscape. Specifically, they will have to focus on and address four emerging challenges:

• A scarcity of top-quality land. Developers are in a constant scramble to identify new sites with increasing speed. Our analysis in Germany, a country aiming to nearly double its share of electricity coming from renewables by 2030, offers a glimpse into the constraints. Of the 51 percent of the country’s land that is potentially suitable for onshore wind farms, regulatory, environmental, and technical constraints eliminate all but 9 percent. 4 McKinsey land use optimization model. Meeting capacity targets will mean adding wind turbines to 4 to 6 percent of the country, giving developers very little room for error.
• A blue-collar and white-collar labor shortage. Across economies, the “Great Attrition” is making it difficult for companies to find and keep employees. Since April 2021, 20 million to 25 million US workers have quit their jobs, and 40 percent of employees globally say they are at least somewhat likely to leave their current position in the next three to six months. 5 Aaron De Smet, Bonnie Dowling, Bryan Hancock, and Bill Schaninger, “ The Great Attrition is making hiring harder. Are you searching the right talent pools? ,” McKinsey Quarterly , July 13, 2022; Table 4. Quits levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated October 4, 2022. This environment presents a particularly acute challenge for industries such as renewable energy, where specific technical expertise and experience are crucial elements of success. For instance, our analysis suggests that between now and 2030, the global renewables industry will need an additional 1.1 million blue-collar workers to develop and construct wind and solar plants, and another 1.7 million to operate and maintain them. 6 Renewable energy benefits: Leveraging local capacity for onshore wind , International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2017; Renewable energy benefits: Leveraging local capacity for offshore wind , IRENA, 2018; Renewable energy benefits: Leveraging local capacity for solar PV , IRENA, 2017. This includes construction laborers, electricians, truck and semitrailer drivers, and operating engineers.
• Supply chain pressures. The soaring cost of steel, manufacturing disruptions caused by extended lockdowns in China, and transportation backlogs at ports are already making it difficult for wind and solar developers to complete projects in their pipeline on time and on budget. Some of these pressures will abate as others move to the forefront. For instance, many of the raw materials needed to manufacture solar panels and wind turbines are projected to be in short supply. This includes nickel, copper, and rare earth metals such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are indispensable for the creation of magnets used in wind turbine generators.
• Pressure on profits and volatility of returns in the short term. The increasing number of players moving into the renewable-development space, combined with reduced levels of government support and higher costs of materials, technology, and financing, is putting pressure on returns. At the same time, an all-time-high price volatility creates uncertainty and market risk.

Renewables developers will need to act decisively to prepare for these upcoming challenges. In a series of future articles, we provide detailed insights on each of these pressures and share potential ways players can take action.

Florian Heineke is a consultant in McKinsey’s Frankfurt office; Nadine Janecke is an associate partner in the Hamburg office; Holger Klärner is a partner in the Berlin office; Florian Kühn is a partner in the Oslo office; Humayun Tai is a senior partner in the New York office; and Raffael Winter is a partner in the Düsseldorf office.

The authors wish to thank Nadia Christakou, Florent Erbar, David Frankel, Emil Hosius, Anna Kemp, Nadine Palmowski, Andreas Schlosser, Sophia Spitzer, Christian Staudt, and Jakub Zivansky for their contributions to this article.

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Fast and effective renewable energy innovation is critical to meeting climate goals. Image:  REUTERS/Nathan Frandino

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• Progress on the global energy transition has seen only "marginal growth" in the past three years, according to a World Economic Forum report.
• Fast and effective renewable energy innovation is critical to meeting climate goals.
• Here are five solutions that could help countries meet emissions targets.

The need for renewable energy innovation has never been greater.

In its 2023 report, Fostering Effective Energy Transition , the World Economic Forum says that 95% of countries have improved their total Energy Transition Index score over the past decade , but there has been only "marginal growth" in the past three years.

The Global Risks Report 2023 ranked failure to mitigate climate change as one of the most severe threats in the next two years, while climate- and nature- related risks lead the rankings by severity over the long term.

The World Economic Forum’s Centre for Nature and Climate is a multistakeholder platform that seeks to safeguard our global commons and drive systems transformation. It is accelerating action on climate change towards a net-zero, nature-positive future.

Learn more about our impact:

• Scaling up green technologies: Through a partnership with the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, John Kerry, and over 65 global businesses, the First Movers Coalition has committed $12 billion in purchase commitments for green technologies to decarbonize the cement and concrete industry.
• 1 trillion trees: Over 90 global companies have committed to conserve, restore and grow more than 8 billion trees in 65 countries through the 1t.org initiative – which aims to achieve 1 trillion trees by 2030.
• Sustainable food production: Our Food Action Alliance is engaging 40 partners who are working on 29 flagship initiatives to provide healthy, nutritious, and safe foods in ways that safeguard our planet. In Vietnam, it supported the upskilling of 2.2 million farmers and aims to provide 20 million farmers with the skills to learn and adapt to new agricultural standards.
• Eliminating plastic pollution: Our Global Plastic Action Partnership is bringing together governments, businesses and civil society to shape a more sustainable world through the eradication of plastic pollution. In Ghana, more than 2,000 waste pickers are making an impact cleaning up beaches, drains and other sites.
• Protecting the ocean: Our 2030 Water Resources Group has facilitated almost $1 billion to finance water-related programmes , growing into a network of more than 1,000 partners and operating in 14 countries/states.
• Circular economy: Our SCALE 360 initiative is reducing the environmental impacts of value chains within the fashion, food, plastics and electronics industries, positively impacting over 100,000 people in 60 circular economy interventions globally.

Want to know more about our centre’s impact or get involved? Contact us .

Greenhouse gas emissions need to be almost halved by 2030 if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, warns the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Sixth Assessment Report.

So, it’s encouraging that innovators continue to pioneer fresh approaches that are making the goal of switching the world to renewable energy more achievable. Here are five such energy innovations.

Solar and wind power working together

It’s tempting to think that renewable energy installations need to be either solar or wind powered. But French start-up Unéole has come up with a small-scale, easy to install solution that uses sun and wind power in a single unit .

Designed to be used on the flat roofs of offices and apartment buildings, the platform uses multiple wind turbines under a photovoltaic roof to create a silent solution that produces 40% more energy than a pure solar system and can generate power round the clock.

These turbines never turn

Wind power doesn’t have to mean huge turbines. A US start-up has invented a system that uses three-metre tall wind generators with no external moving parts . Sitting on the edge of roofs, Aeromine uses the natural airflow up the front of the building to generate power.

The system’s aerodynamic fins guide fast-rising air past an internal turbine, which the company claims produces 50% more power than other sustainable options. Combined with rooftop solar and battery storage, it can meet 100% of a building’s needs, the company says.

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Solar to dominate us energy mix in 2023. here's what you need to know about the global energy transition this week, can europe’s rush for renewables solve its energy crisis, renewables will be world’s top electricity source within three years, iea data reveals, solar canals.

California is prone to droughts . The first 22 years of this century were the state’s driest period since the year 800 , prompting fears of a megadrought. The problem has been made more acute because the state’s water distribution system uses open canals.

Start-up SolarAquaGrid is trialling a scheme to roof over the canals with solar panels generating power and cutting evaporation. If all 6,400 km of the state’s canals were fitted, it’s forecast to save 283 billion litres of water a year and generate power for 9.4 million homes.

Solar power windows

The windows in the image above are also solar panels . This transparent renewable energy source has been developed by California-based Ubiquitous Technology which says it could revolutionize solar power.

The glass is treated to allow visible light, what we see, to pass through it while absorbing and converting invisible ultraviolet and infrared light into electricity. The company says the solar windows can generate up to 30% of a building's power needs.

Making water from air

With water scarcity likely to be an issue for two-thirds of the world's population by 2025, finding alternative sources is vital. US start-up Source is providing one option. It has created off-grid "hydropanels" that can turn air into water .

Fans inside the panels pull water vapour out of the air, which in turn is turned into liquid water that can be mineralized ready for use as drinking water.

One hydropanel could eliminate the need for 54,000 single-use plastic water bottles over its 15-year lifespan, the company says.

So far, Source has installed panels in 50 countries and has projects under way to provide water in hard-to-reach areas.

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US scientists confirm ‘major breakthrough’ in nuclear fusion

Successful experiment could pave way for abundant clean energy in future, but major hurdles remain

Scientists have confirmed a major breakthrough has been made that could pave the way for abundant clean energy in the future after more than half a century of research into nuclear fusion.

Researchers at the US National Ignition Facility in California said fusion experiments had released more energy than was pumped in by the lab’s enormous, high-powered lasers, a landmark achievement known as ignition or energy gain.

The technology is far from ready to turn into viable power plants – and is not about to solve the climate crisis – but scientists hailed the breakthrough as evidence that the power of the stars can be harnessed on Earth.

Dr Arati Prabhakar, the policy director at the White House Office of Science and Technology, said: “Last week … they shot a bunch of lasers at a pellet of fuel and more energy was released from that fusion ignition than the energy of the lasers going in. This is such a tremendous example of what perseverance really can achieve.”

Fusion energy raises the prospect of plentiful clean power: the reactions release no greenhouse gases nor radioactive waste by-products. A single kilogram of fusion fuel, which is made up of heavy forms of hydrogen called deuterium and tritium, provides as much energy as 10m kilograms of fossil fuel. But it has taken 70 years to reach this point.

Speaking at the announcement on Tuesday, Jill Hruby, of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), said the US had “taken the first tentative step towards a clean energy source that could revolutionise the world”.

The National Ignition Facility is a vast complex at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, near San Jose. It was built to perform experiments that recreate, briefly and in miniature, the processes unleashed inside nuclear bombs, enabling the US to maintain its nuclear warheads without the need for nuclear tests.

But the experiments are also stepping stones towards clean fusion power. To achieve the reactions, researchers fire up to 192 giant lasers into a centimetre-long gold cylinder called a hohlraum. The intense energy heats the container to more than 3m degrees celcius – hotter than the surface of the sun – and bathes a peppercorn-sized fuel pellet inside in X-rays.

The X-rays strip the surface off the pellet and trigger a rocket-like implosion, driving temperatures and pressures to extremes only seen inside stars, giant planets and nuclear detonations. The implosion reaches speeds of 400km per second and causes the deuterium and tritium to fuse.

Each fusing pair of hydrogen nuclei produces a lighter helium nucleus, and a burst of energy according to Einstein’s equation E=mc 2 . Deuterium is easily extracted from seawater, while tritium can be made from lithium which is found in the Earth’s crust.

In the latest experiment, researchers pumped in 2.05 megajoules of laser energy and got about 3.15MJ out – a roughly 50% gain and a sign that fusion reactions in the pellet were driving further fusion reactions. “The energy production took less time than it takes light to travel one inch,” said Dr Marvin Adams, at the NNSA.

Immense hurdles remain, however, in the quest for fusion power plants. While the pellet released more energy than the lasers put in, the calculation does not include the 300 or so megajoules needed to power up the lasers in the first place. The NIF lasers fire about once a day, but a power plant would need to heat targets 10 times per second. Then there is the cost of the targets. The ones used in the US experiment cost tens of thousands of dollars, but for a viable power plant, they would need to cost pence. Another issue is how to get the energy out as heat.

Dr Kim Budil, the director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said with enough investment, a “few decades of research could put us in a position to build a power plant”. A power plant based on alternative technology used at the Joint European Torus (JET) in Oxfordshire could be ready sooner, she added.

“In some senses everything changes; in another, nothing changes,” said Justin Wark, a professor of physics at the University of Oxford and the director of the Oxford Centre for High Energy Density Science. “This result proves what most physicists always believed – fusion in the laboratory is possible. However, the obstacles to be overcome to make anything like a commercial reactor are huge, and must not be underestimated.”

He said that asking how long it could take to overcome the challenges was like asking the Wright brothers how long it would take to build a plane to cross the Atlantic just after their maiden flight. “I understand that everyone wants to think of this as being the great solution to the energy crisis. It is not, and whoever says it is with any certainty is misleading.

“It is highly unlikely that fusion will impact on a timescale sufficiently short to impact our current climate change crisis, so there must be no let up on our efforts in that regard.

“The latest results also show that the basic science works – the laws of physics do not prevent us from achieving the goal – the problems are technical and economic. As Niels Bohr, the Nobel prize-winning atomic physicist once said: ‘Prediction is very difficult, especially when it is about the future.’”

Dr Mark Wenman, a reader in nuclear materials at Imperial College London, called the achievement a “fantastic scientific breakthrough – something we have not achieved in 70 years of trying”. But he said: “Challenges remain of how you can get the energy out of the system, how you can sustain the energy for long enough to be useful, how you scale up that energy and whether the energy can be cheap enough to compete with other sources.”

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College of Engineering

New approach could make reusing captured carbon far cheaper, less energy-intensive.

A team led by Marta Hatzell designed a new electrochemical reactor to seamlessly integrate into direct air capture systems and turn CO 2 into useful raw materials.

A new electrochemical reactor design developed with Marta Hatzell by postdoctoral scholar Hakhyeon Song (middle) and Ph.D. students Carlos Fernández and Po-Wei Huang (seated) converts carbon dioxide removed from the air into useful raw material. Their approach is cheaper and simpler while requiring less energy, making it a promising tool to improve the economics of direct air capture systems. (Photo: Candler Hobbs)

Engineers at Georgia Tech have designed a process that converts carbon dioxide removed from the air into useful raw material that could be used for new plastics, chemicals, or fuels.

Their approach dramatically reduces the cost and energy required for these direct air capture (DAC) systems, helping improve the economics of a process the researchers said will be critical to addressing climate change.

The key is a new kind of catalyst and electrochemical reactor design that can be easily integrated into existing DAC systems to produce useful carbon monoxide (CO) gas. It’s one of the most efficient such design ever described in scientific literature, according to lead researcher Marta Hatzell and her team. They published details April 16 in Energy and Environmental Science , a top journal for energy-related research.

“All of my team’s research projects focus on decarbonization, which I care about because of climate change, but this one in particular has the opportunity to make an impact and move toward commercialization more quickly,” said Hatzell, associate professor in the George W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering and the School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering . “That’s why publishing our work is important, to help get this technology out into the real world.”

Typically, the DAC process involves pulling carbon dioxide out of the air using some kind of chemical or material that wants to grab the CO 2 molecules. To release that captured carbon — to store it underground, for example, or process it for productive reuse — requires significant energy and complicated, expensive systems. Along the way, those systems usually lose some of the CO 2 , often only using half of the carbon they’ve removed from the air or less.

Hatzell’s team is focused on improving an approach that uses a liquid alkaline solution called KOH to capture the carbon in a DAC system. The KOH turns the gas CO 2 into bicarbonates, which eventually have to be separated again.

The Georgia Tech design avoids that expensive, energy-intensive step altogether.

Working with Jihun Oh’s lab at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, researchers created a new nickel-based catalyst and paired it with a bipolar membrane electrode assembly. Their setup uses electricity to extract CO 2 from the bicarbonates right next to the catalyst, which then converts it to carbon monoxide gas.

That’s the secret sauce of the system designed by Hatzell, postdoctoral scholar Hakhyeon Song, and Ph.D. students Carlos Fernández and Po-Wei Huang: It combines two steps into one.

“We're capturing the CO 2 into carbonates, which is a spontaneous process and doesn’t take much energy. And we’re getting rid of the desorption process and all of that energy expenditure,” Fernández said. “We save about 90% of the energy in the capture process, and about 50% of the capital cost.”

Their setup also is extremely efficient at using all of the CO 2 that moves through the reactor, according to Song. This is vastly better than systems that keep the carbon dioxide as a gas throughout the separation process.

The experimental setup researchers in Marta Hatzell’s lab used to test their new electrochemical reactor for carbon capture. (Photo: Candler Hobbs)

“We’re twice as efficient. Our CO 2 utilization efficiency is almost 70%, but the gas-phase system is 35%,” Song said. “The maximum CO 2 utilization in gas-based systems is theoretically 50%. But in our case, our maximum efficiency is 100%.”

In another important advance, the team’s catalyst works well in an acidic environment, which has been a limitation of existing systems using bipolar membranes. When the reactor layer with the catalyst turns acidic, another chemical process called a hydrogen evolution reaction occurs that competes with the reaction that reduces CO 2 to CO. The new nickel-based catalyst suppresses this interference.

Producing carbon monoxide from the CO 2 scrubbed from the air is a complicated, intensive process. But if done economically, the resulting raw material could be linked to existing chemical processes and turned into new useful products.

Making those connections is next on the team’s plate. CO can become the basis for plastics, important industrial chemicals like ethylene, and maybe even jet fuel one day.

“That's why we chose CO,” Fernández said. “Other products are harder to make, and CO is a good base for any carbon chemical. You can go from CO to almost anything through thermochemical processes.”

About the Research

Citation: Song, H., Fernandez, C. A., Choi, H., Huang, P. W., Oh, J., & Hatzell, M. C. (2024). Integrated carbon capture and CO production from bicarbonates through bipolar membrane electrolysis.  Energy & Environmental Science . https://doi.org/10.1039/D4EE00048J

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Addressing risk from renewable energy intermittency in power markets.

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Understanding the implications of the intermittency of renewable energy is essential

Authored by Brian McIntosh - Research Director, Power and Renewables at Wood Mackenzie

Electricity demand is set to surge over the coming decades as addressing climate change becomes a key focus for societies globally and the energy transition advances. At the same time, traditional fossil fuel powered generation will increasingly be phased out in favour of renewable sources.

On the face of it, that’s good news for power markets, but the rising use of renewables has added a new factor into the supply-demand equation: the intermittency of renewable energy.

The risks from increased usage of renewables

While renewable generation has obvious environmental advantages over fossil fuels for electricity generation, it does have an Achilles heel. Provided suitable fuel is available, coal and gas fired power stations are a highly flexible resource. When required they can provide continuous generation 24 hours per day; alternatively, they can be kept on standby and brought quickly into use to provide additional load on demand as and when required.

In contrast, renewable power plants can only generate electricity when the conditions are right; solar can only generate when the sun is shining, while wind turbines can only provide power when the wind is blowing – and they can even have to be shut down if wind speeds get too high. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources creates reliability challenges when it comes to managing the available electricity in the grid, since it’s much harder to predict the available load on a given day.

Energy storage, in the form of industrial scale batteries and other solutions, will eventually largely resolve this issue. However, in the short term, energy storage innovation and capacity growth can’t keep up with the pace at which societies want to increase the use of renewables. As a result, when electricity networks with a high percentage of renewable resource are put under unexpected pressure, for example as a result of an extreme weather event, the system can struggle to cope.

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How can we address these risks?

Utilities used to plan for expected peak gross demand. For about 90% of the US, this traditionally came from air conditioning use in the summer months , although for cooler regions the need for heating in winter can be the key issue. However, as an ever-greater percentage of generation comes from renewables, ‘net load’ has become more important.

Net load is calculated as gross load minus power provided by intermittent generation, i.e., renewables. This is a critical measure when managing the grid since it represents how much demand must be met by non-intermittent sources – usually gas or coal.

On a day-to-day basis, industry stakeholders need to understand not only what level of resource is online to provide supply and what the expected demand for power is, but also what additional generating capacity is available if needed; this is known as the reserve margin. When a high percentage of capacity is provided by renewables, the reserve margin becomes much harder to predict.

Accurate data and predictions regarding weather patterns, from hours and intensity of sunlight to wind speed and direction, can help address the risks and opportunities. At the same time, industry stakeholders need to be able to assess the real-world situation and consequences with up-to-the-minute monitoring of capacity fluctuations, outages and congestion.

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What the data says about Americans’ views of climate change

A recent report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has underscored the need for international action to avoid increasingly severe climate impacts in the years to come. Steps outlined in the report, and by climate experts, include major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from sectors such as energy production and transportation.

But how do Americans feel about climate change, and what steps do they think the United States should take to address it? Here are eight charts that illustrate Americans’ views on the issue, based on recent Pew Research Center surveys.

Pew Research Center published this collection of survey findings as part of its ongoing work to understand attitudes about climate change and energy issues. The most recent survey was conducted May 30-June 4, 2023, among 10,329 U.S. adults. Earlier findings have been previously published, and methodological information, including the sample sizes and field dates, can be found by following the links in the text.

Everyone who took part in the June 2023 survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way, nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology .

Here are the questions used for this analysis , along with responses, and its methodology .

A majority of Americans support prioritizing the development of renewable energy sources. Two-thirds of U.S. adults say the country should prioritize developing renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, over expanding the production of oil, coal and natural gas, according to a survey conducted in June 2023.

In a previous Center survey conducted in 2022, nearly the same share of Americans (69%) favored the U.S. taking steps to become carbon neutral by 2050 , a goal outlined by President Joe Biden at the outset of his administration. Carbon neutrality means releasing no more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than is removed.

Nine-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say the U.S. should prioritize developing alternative energy sources to address America’s energy supply. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 42% support developing alternative energy sources, while 58% say the country should prioritize expanding exploration and production of oil, coal and natural gas.

There are important differences by age within the GOP. Two-thirds of Republicans under age 30 (67%) prioritize the development of alternative energy sources. By contrast, 75% of Republicans ages 65 and older prioritize expanding the production of oil, coal and natural gas.

Americans are reluctant to phase out fossil fuels altogether, but younger adults are more open to it. Overall, about three-in-ten adults (31%) say the U.S. should completely phase out oil, coal and natural gas. More than twice as many (68%) say the country should use a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels and renewables.

While the public is generally reluctant to phase out fossil fuels altogether, younger adults are more supportive of this idea. Among Americans ages 18 to 29, 48% say the U.S. should exclusively use renewables, compared with 52% who say the U.S. should use a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels.

There are age differences within both political parties on this question. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, 58% of those ages 18 to 29 favor phasing out fossil fuels entirely, compared with 42% of Democrats 65 and older. Republicans of all age groups back continuing to use a mix of energy sources, including oil, coal and natural gas. However, about three-in-ten (29%) Republicans ages 18 to 29 say the U.S. should phase out fossil fuels altogether, compared with fewer than one-in-ten Republicans 50 and older.

There are multiple potential routes to carbon neutrality in the U.S. All involve major reductions to carbon emissions in sectors such as energy and transportation by increasing the use of things like wind and solar power and electric vehicles. There are also ways to potentially remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it, such as capturing it directly from the air or using trees and algae to facilitate carbon sequestration.

The public supports the federal government incentivizing wind and solar energy production. In many sectors, including energy and transportation, federal incentives and regulations significantly influence investment and development.

Two-thirds of Americans think the federal government should encourage domestic production of wind and solar power. Just 7% say the government should discourage this, while 26% think it should neither encourage nor discourage it.

Views are more mixed on how the federal government should approach other activities that would reduce carbon emissions. On balance, more Americans think the government should encourage than discourage the use of electric vehicles and nuclear power production, though sizable shares say it should not exert an influence either way.

When it comes to oil and gas drilling, Americans’ views are also closely divided: 34% think the government should encourage drilling, while 30% say it should discourage this and 35% say it should do neither. Coal mining is the one activity included in the survey where public sentiment is negative on balance: More say the federal government should discourage than encourage coal mining (39% vs. 21%), while 39% say it should do neither.

Americans see room for multiple actors – including corporations and the federal government – to do more to address the impacts of climate change. Two-thirds of adults say large businesses and corporations are doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change. Far fewer say they are doing about the right amount (21%) or too much (10%).

Majorities also say their state elected officials (58%) and the energy industry (55%) are doing too little to address climate change, according to a March 2023 survey.

In a separate Center survey conducted in June 2023, a similar share of Americans (56%) said the federal government should do more to reduce the effects of global climate change.

When it comes to their own efforts, about half of Americans (51%) think they are doing about the right amount as an individual to help reduce the effects of climate change, according to the March 2023 survey. However, about four-in-ten (43%) say they are doing too little.

Democrats and Republicans have grown further apart over the last decade in their assessments of the threat posed by climate change. Overall, a majority of U.S. adults (54%) describe climate change as a major threat to the country’s well-being. This share is down slightly from 2020 but remains higher than in the early 2010s.

Nearly eight-in-ten Democrats (78%) describe climate change as a major threat to the country’s well-being, up from about six-in-ten (58%) a decade ago. By contrast, about one-in-four Republicans (23%) consider climate change a major threat, a share that’s almost identical to 10 years ago.

Concern over climate change has also risen internationally, as shown by separate Pew Research Center polling across 19 countries in 2022. People in many advanced economies express higher levels of concern than Americans . For instance, 81% of French adults and 73% of Germans describe climate change as a major threat.

Climate change is a lower priority for Americans than other national issues. While a majority of adults view climate change as a major threat, it is a lower priority than issues such as strengthening the economy and reducing health care costs.

Overall, 37% of Americans say addressing climate change should be a top priority for the president and Congress in 2023, and another 34% say it’s an important but lower priority. This ranks climate change 17th out of 21 national issues included in a Center survey from January.

As with views of the threat that climate change poses, there’s a striking contrast between how Republicans and Democrats prioritize the issue. For Democrats, it falls in the top half of priority issues, and 59% call it a top priority. By comparison, among Republicans, it ranks second to last, and just 13% describe it as a top priority.

Our analyses have found that partisan gaps on climate change are often widest on questions – such as this one – that measure the salience or importance of the issue. The gaps are more modest when it comes to some specific climate policies. For example, majorities of Republicans and Democrats alike say they would favor a proposal to provide a tax credit to businesses for developing technologies for carbon capture and storage.

Perceptions of local climate impacts vary by Americans’ political affiliation and whether they believe that climate change is a serious problem. A majority of Americans (61%) say that global climate change is affecting their local community either a great deal or some. About four-in-ten (39%) see little or no impact in their own community.

The perception that the effects of climate change are happening close to home is one factor that could drive public concern and calls for action on the issue. But perceptions are tied more strongly to people’s beliefs about climate change – and their partisan affiliation – than to local conditions.

For example, Americans living in the Pacific region – California, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii and Alaska – are more likely than those in other areas of the country to say that climate change is having a great deal of impact locally. But only Democrats in the Pacific region are more likely to say they are seeing effects of climate change where they live. Republicans in this region are no more likely than Republicans in other areas to say that climate change is affecting their local community.

Our previous surveys show that nearly all Democrats believe climate change is at least a somewhat serious problem, and a large majority believe that humans play a role in it. Republicans are much less likely to hold these beliefs, but views within the GOP do vary significantly by age and ideology. Younger Republicans and those who describe their views as moderate or liberal are much more likely than older and more conservative Republicans to describe climate change as at least a somewhat serious problem and to say human activity plays a role.

Democrats are also more likely than Republicans to report experiencing extreme weather events in their area over the past year – such as intense storms and floods, long periods of hot weather or droughts – and to see these events as connected with climate change.

About three-quarters of Americans support U.S. participation in international efforts to reduce the effects of climate change. Americans offer broad support for international engagement on climate change: 74% say they support U.S. participation in international efforts to reduce the effects of climate change.

Still, there’s little consensus on how current U.S. efforts stack up against those of other large economies. About one-in-three Americans (36%) think the U.S. is doing more than other large economies to reduce the effects of global climate change, while 30% say the U.S. is doing less than other large economies and 32% think it is doing about as much as others. The U.S. is the second-largest carbon dioxide emitter , contributing about 13.5% of the global total.

When asked what they think the right balance of responsibility is, a majority of Americans (56%) say the U.S. should do about as much as other large economies to reduce the effects of climate change, while 27% think it should do more than others.

A previous Center survey found that while Americans favor international cooperation on climate change in general terms, their support has its limits. In January 2022 , 59% of Americans said that the U.S. does not have a responsibility to provide financial assistance to developing countries to help them build renewable energy sources.

In recent years, the UN conference on climate change has grappled with how wealthier nations should assist developing countries in dealing with climate change. The most recent convening in fall 2022, known as COP27, established a “loss and damage” fund for vulnerable countries impacted by climate change.

Note: This is an update of a post originally published April 22, 2022. Here are the questions used for this analysis , along with responses, and its methodology .

• Climate, Energy & Environment
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• Partisanship & Issues
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Alec Tyson is an associate director of research at Pew Research Center

Cary Funk is director of science and society research at Pew Research Center

Brian Kennedy is a senior researcher focusing on science and society research at Pew Research Center

How Republicans view climate change and energy issues

How americans view future harms from climate change in their community and around the u.s., americans continue to have doubts about climate scientists’ understanding of climate change, growing share of americans favor more nuclear power, why some americans do not see urgency on climate change, most popular.

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2023 marks a step change for renewable power growth over the next five years.

Renewable electricity capacity additions reached an estimated 507 GW in 2023, almost 50% higher than in 2022, with continuous policy support in more than 130 countries spurring a significant change in the global growth trend. This worldwide acceleration in 2023 was driven mainly by year-on-year expansion in the People’s Republic of China’s (hereafter “China”) booming market for solar PV (+116%) and wind (+66%). Renewable power capacity additions will continue to increase in the next five years, with solar PV and wind accounting for a record 96% of it because their generation costs are lower than for both fossil and non-fossil alternatives in most countries and policies continue to support them. 

Renewable electricity capacity additions by technology and segment, 2016-2028

Solar PV and wind additions are forecast to more than double by 2028 compared with 2022, continuously breaking records over the forecast period to reach almost 710 GW. At the same time, hydropower and bioenergy capacity additions will be lower than during the last five years as development in emerging economies decelerates, especially in China.

China is in the driver’s seat

China’s renewable electricity capacity growth triples in the next five years compared with the previous five, with the country accounting for an unprecedented 56% of global expansion. Over 2023-2028, China will deploy almost four times more renewable capacity than the European Union and five times more than the United States, which will remain the second- and third-largest growth markets. The Chinese government’s Net Zero by 2060 target, supported by incentives under the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the ample availability of locally manufactured equipment and low-cost financing, stimulate the country’s renewable power expansion over the forecast period. 

Renewable electricity capacity growth in China, main case, 2005-2028

Renewable electricity capacity growth by country or region, main case, 2005-2028.

Meanwhile, expansion accelerates in the United States and the European Union thanks to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and country-level policy incentives supporting EU decarbonisation and energy security targets. In India, progressive policy improvements to remedy auction participation, financing and distributed solar PV challenges pay off with faster renewable power growth through 2028. In Latin America, higher retail prices spur distributed solar PV system buildouts, and supportive policies for utility-scale installations in Brazil boost renewable energy growth to new highs.

Renewable energy expansion also accelerates in the Middle East and North Africa, owing mostly to policy incentives that take advantage of the cost-competitiveness of solar PV and onshore wind power. Although renewable capacity increases more quickly in sub-Saharan Africa, the region still underperforms considering its resource potential and electrification needs

The forecast has been revised upwards, but country and technology trends vary

We have revised the global Renewables 2023 forecast up by 33% (or 728 GW) from our December 2022 publication. For most countries and regions, this revision reflects policy changes and improved economics for large-scale wind and solar PV projects, but also faster consumer adoption of distributed PV systems in response to higher electricity prices. Overall, China accounts for the most significant upward revisions for all technologies except bioenergy for power, for which reduced government support, feedstock limitations and complicated logistics remain challenging. 

Renewable electricity capacity forecast revisions by country, 2023-2027

Renewable electricity capacity forecast revisions, 2023-2027.

Despite regulatory changes to its net metering scheme, Brazil’s distributed PV capacity growth is exceeding our expectations, leading to noticeable upward revisions. For other countries, a more optimistic outlook result from policy improvements for auction design and permitting, and a growing corporate PPA market in Germany; positive impacts of IRA incentives in the United States; and speedier streamlined renewable energy auctioning in India.

Conversely, we have revised down the forecast for Korea because the government’s policy focus has shifted from renewables to nuclear energy, reducing solar PV targets. We have also reined in forecast growth for other markets compared with last year’s outlook: for Spain because renewable energy auctions have been significantly undersubscribed; for Australia due to continued policy uncertainty following early achievement of its Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET); for Oman because development time frames for large-scale renewable energy projects have been longer than expected, including for green hydrogen; and for multiple Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries as a result of sustained policy uncertainty as well as overall power supply gluts limiting additional renewable deployment in the short term.

Rapid government responses to grid connection, permitting, policy and financing challenges can accelerate renewable energy growth

In the main case, taking country-specific challenges that hamper faster renewable energy expansion into account, we forecast that almost 3 700 GW of new renewable capacity will become operational worldwide over the next five years. In contrast, in our accelerated case, we assume that governments overcome these challenges and implement existing policies more quickly. 

Renewable electricity capacity by primary driver, 2023-2028

These challenges fall into four main categories. First are policy uncertainties and delayed policy responses to the new macroeconomic environment, encompassing inflexible auction design. During the energy crisis, governments intervened in energy markets to protect consumers from high prices. While these interventions were justified, they also created uncertainty for investors over the future investment environment in the electricity sector. The macroeconomic changes also drove up costs and contract prices for wind and solar PV projects, and a lack of reference price adjustments and contract price indexation methodologies reduced the bankability of projects, mostly in advanced economies.

Meanwhile, emerging economies have been slow to develop strong renewable energy targets and clear incentive schemes. While renewable energy projects (especially solar PV and wind) are already more affordable than fossil fuel-based alternatives, slower-than-expected demand growth has resulted in overcapacity of young coal and gas fleets in many emerging economies, creating little need for additional capacity.

The second problem is insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, which has been preventing faster expansion. Today, more than 3 000 GW of renewable generation capacity are in grid queues, and half of these projects are in advanced stages of development. 1 This challenge holds true for both advanced economies and emerging and developing countries. Development lead times for grid infrastructure improvements are significantly longer than for wind and solar PV projects.

The third challenge involves permitting. The amount of time required to obtain permits can range from one to five years for ground-mounted solar PV projects, two to nine years for onshore wind, and nine years on average for offshore wind projects. Delays resulting from complex and lengthy authorisation procedures are slowing project pipeline growth, limiting participation in renewable energy auctions, raising project risks and costs, and ultimately weakening project economics.

The fourth obstacle is insufficient financing in developing countries. Mitigating risks in high-risk countries through concessional financing continues to be challenging because of ongoing policy uncertainties and implementation challenges, for instance in Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria. In many developing countries, government-owned utilities are under financial stress and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) can be two to three times higher than in mature renewable energy markets, reducing project bankability. Every percentage point decline in the WACC reduces wind and solar PV generation costs by at least 8%.

Renewable capacity growth by technology, main and accelerated cases, 2005-2028

Governments have multiple options to address these challenges in the short term to unlock 21% more renewable capacity in the accelerated case, with almost 4 500 GW becoming operational in the next five years. In our accelerated case forecast, governments can achieve important policy improvements by:

• Simplifying permitting procedures and/or setting clear permitting timelines; identifying preferential areas for renewable energy projects to fast-track permitting; and removing certain permitting requirements for small renewable power projects or increasing the minimum capacity requirement for environmental impact assessments without compromising strong sustainability measures.
• Considering that new grid infrastructure often takes five to 15 years to plan, compared with one to five years for new renewable energy projects; aligning and integrating planning and execution of transmission and distribution grid projects with broad long-term energy planning processes, and ensuring that regulatory risk assessments allow for anticipatory investments.
• Standardising power purchase contracts and backing them up with government guarantees, especially for publicly owned utilities, to reduce financial risks for off-takers.
• Adapting auction designs to the new macroeconomic environment by indexing contract prices to various macroeconomic indicators specific to each renewable technology, such as relevant commodity prices, inflation and interest rates for different stages of project development.
• Implementing policies and regulatory reforms to de-risk renewable energy investments and reducing the cost of financing, especially in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs).

In our accelerated case, onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV together have the largest upside potential. Simplifying permitting and adapting auction designs would lead to higher auction subscriptions, and thus faster deployment of utility-scale solar PV and wind power plants, as would higher investment in transmission and distribution grids.

For distributed solar PV, although we have already revised our forecast upwards to reflect policy improvements and higher retail prices for electricity, the pace of consumer adoption is always a forecast uncertainty, especially in a high-interest-rate environment. Our accelerated case therefore assumes faster adoption of residential and commercial solar PV thanks to the prolongation of high retail electricity prices and government support for low-cost financing.

Global renewable energy auction results by technology, 2019-2023

Global renewable energy auction results by region, 2019-2023, renewables overtake coal in early 2025 to become the largest energy source for electricity generation globally.

By 2028, potential renewable electricity generation is expected to reach 14 430 TWh, an increase of almost 70% from 2022. Over the next five years, several renewable energy milestones could be achieved:

• In 2024, variable renewable generation surpasses hydropower.
• In 2025, renewables surpass coal-fired electricity generation.
• In 2025, wind surpasses nuclear electricity generation.
• In 2026, solar PV surpasses nuclear electricity generation.
• In 2028, solar PV surpasses wind electricity generation.

Share of renewable electricity generation by technology, 2000-2028

Over the forecast period, potential renewable electricity generation growth exceeds global demand growth, indicating a slow decline in coal-based generation while natural gas remains stable. In 2028, renewable energy sources account for 42% of global electricity generation, with the wind and solar PV share making up 25%. In 2028, hydropower remains the largest renewable electricity source. However, renewable electricity generation needs to expand more quickly in many countries (see Net Zero Tracking section).

While renewables are currently the largest energy source for electricity generation in 57 countries, mostly thanks to hydropower, these countries represent just 14% of global power demand. By 2028, 68 countries will have renewables as their main power generation source but still only account for 17% of global demand.

The tripling goal is within reach, but more effort is needed

Prior to the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, the International Energy Agency urged governments to support five pillars for action by 2030, among them the goal of tripling global renewable power capacity. Several of the IEA priorities were reflected in the Global Stocktake text agreed by the 198 governments at COP28, including the tripling renewables goal. Tripling global renewable capacity from 2022 levels by 2030 would take it to 11 000 GW, in line with the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Under existing policies and market conditions, global renewable capacity is forecast to reach 7 300 GW by 2028 in our main case. Although this growth means that renewables account for almost all newly added power capacity worldwide, its trajectory would see global capacity increase to two and a half times its current level by 2030, falling short of the tripling goal. In our accelerated case forecast, global cumulative capacity more than doubles to reach over 8 130 GW by 2028, putting the world nearly on track to meet the global tripling pledge.

Cumulative renewable electricity capacity in the main and accelerated cases and Net Zero Scenario

In 2023, G20 countries collectively accounted for almost 90% of global cumulative renewable power capacity. In September 2023, G20 leaders declared their willingness to “…pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally through existing targets and policies, […], in line with national circumstances by 2030”. Accordingly, they have the potential to significantly contribute to a global tripling of renewables, through full and faster implementation of existing policies and targets. However, stronger policy efforts are needed in many other countries. Renewable energy expansion in 2023 was heavily concentrated in just ten countries, responsible for 80% of global annual additions. To achieve a tripling of global renewable capacity, a much faster deployment rate is necessary in numerous other nations. Moreover, many emerging and developing economies rely primarily on hydropower. This implies that solar PV and wind must grow significantly more than threefold by 2030 to meet the global tripling goal. Achieving this will demand new policies tailored to the unique circumstances and requirements of emerging and developing nations.

Relative to our accelerated case projections for renewable capacity in 2028, reaching the tripling of renewables by 2030 would necessitate the commissioning of almost 3 000 GW of new renewable capacity in 2029 and 2030. Average annual renewable capacity additions in 2029-2030 would therefore have to be 165% higher than in 2027-2028, the last two years of our accelerated case forecast.

Gaps also vary significantly by technology. For solar PV, additions need to increase just 35% in 2029 and 2030 while for wind they would need to double. For hydropower and other renewables, annual additions need to triple compared with 2027 and 2028.

Connection queue data based on publicly available information from the United States, Brazil, Colombia, Spain, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, India, Japan, Chile, Germany, Australia and Mexico.

Reference 1

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•  &  A. Olowinsky

Article 17 February 2024 | Open Access

An efficient energy management scheme using rule-based swarm intelligence approach to support pulsed load via solar-powered battery-ultracapacitor hybrid energy system

• Muhammad Shahid Wasim
• , Muhammad Amjad
•  &  Baseem Khan

Article 12 February 2024 | Open Access

Exergy-energy, sustainability, and emissions assessment of Guizotia abyssinica (L.) fuel blends with metallic nano additives

• M. S. Abishek
• , Sabindra Kachhap
•  &  Ali ELrashidi

Article 07 February 2024 | Open Access

Capacitor based topology of cross-square-switched T-type multi-level inverter

• , Seyed Hossein Hosseini
•  &  Majid Hosseinpour

Article 01 February 2024 | Open Access

Energy storage and catalytic behaviour of cmWave assisted BZT and flexible electrospun BZT fibers for energy harvesting applications

• Avanish Babu Thirumalasetty
• , Siva Pamula
•  &  Madhuri Wuppulluri

Article 29 January 2024 | Open Access

Optimization of building integrated energy scheduling using an improved genetic whale algorithm

•  &  Guoqing An

Formal optimization techniques select hydrogen to decarbonize California

• Clinton Thai
•  &  Jack Brouwer

Condition-based opportunistic maintenance strategy for multi-component wind turbines by using stochastic differential equations

•  &  Yuqi Li

Article 24 January 2024 | Open Access

Thermogravimetric and thermo-kinetic analysis of sugarcane bagasse pith: a comparative evaluation with other sugarcane residues

• Hamidreza Najafi
• , Ahmad Golrokh Sani
•  &  Mohammad Amin Sobati

Article 23 January 2024 | Open Access

A new approach to three-dimensional microstructure reconstruction of a polycrystalline solar cell using high-efficiency Cu(In,Ga)Se 2

• Chang-Yun Song
• , Matthias Maiberg
•  &  Ali Gholinia

Article 18 January 2024 | Open Access

Stochastic energy management of a microgrid incorporating two-point estimation method, mobile storage, and fuzzy multi-objective enhanced grey wolf optimizer

• Serajuddin Habibi
• , Reza Effatnejad
•  &  Payman Hajihosseini

AI-based shape optimization of galloping micro-power generators: exploring the benefits of curved surfaces

• Hussam Alhussein
• , Ahmed S. Dalaq
•  &  Mohammed Daqaq

Article 17 January 2024 | Open Access

Highly efficient emerging Ag 2 BaTiSe 4 solar cells using a new class of alkaline earth metal-based chalcogenide buffers alternative to CdS

• Kaviya Tracy Arockiya Dass
• , M. Khalid Hossain
•  &  Latha Marasamy

Article 10 January 2024 | Open Access

Experimental, predictive and RSM studies of H 2 production using Ag-La-CaTiO 3 for water-splitting under visible light

• Safaa Ragab
• , Marwa R. Elkatory
•  &  Ahmed El Nemr

Non-isolated high gain DC–DC converter with ripple-free source current

• A. S. Valarmathy
•  &  M. Prabhakar

Article 04 January 2024 | Open Access

Analytical study of integrating downhole thermoelectric power generation with a coaxial borehole heat exchanger in geothermal wells

• , Kaiyuan Shi
•  &  Junrong Liu

Article 02 January 2024 | Open Access

Renewable and high-purity hydrogen from lignocellulosic biomass in a biorefinery approach

• Majd Elsaddik
• , Ange Nzihou
•  &  Michel Delmas

Experimental study on alkali reduction of film-coated porous ecological concrete by microbial calcium carbonate precipitation technology

• Bingxia Wang
•  &  Xiaolei Wu

Article 19 December 2023 | Open Access

CFD modeling and simulation of benzyl alcohol oxidation coupled with hydrogen production in a continuous-flow photoelectrochemical reactor

• Thorfhan Hanamorn
•  &  Paravee Vas-Umnuay

Article 13 December 2023 | Open Access

Research on high proportion of clean energy grid-connected oscillation risk prediction technology based on CNN and trend feature analysis

• , Xie Yingnan
•  &  Hu yuying

Article 12 December 2023 | Open Access

Unlocking geothermal energy for sustainable greenhouse farming in arid regions: a remote-sensed assessment in Egypt’s New Delta

• Anwar Hegazy
•  &  Sami Z. Mohamed

Article 04 December 2023 | Open Access

Startup process, safety and risk assessment of biomass gasification for off-grid rural electrification

• Md Mashiur Rahman
• , Ulrik Birk Henriksen
•  &  Daniel Ciolkosz

Carbon-neutral power system enabled e-kerosene production in Brazil in 2050

• , Karl-Kiên Cao
•  &  Patrick Jochem

Article 27 November 2023 | Open Access

Practical prototype for energy management system in smart microgrid considering uncertainties and energy theft

• Mohammed A. Saeed
• , Bishoy E. Sedhom
•  &  Abdelfattah A. Eladl

Article 23 November 2023 | Open Access

Heat pump supply chain environmental impact reduction to improve the UK energy sustainability, resiliency and security

• Moein Shamoushaki
•  &  S. C. Lenny Koh

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