presentation on the future world

Welcome to 2034

What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts.

By Mary Kate Aylward , Peter Engelke , Uri Friedman , and Paul Kielstra

Explore findings on…

1. Israel and its neighbors

2. Conflict over Taiwan

10. A pessimistic global outlook

Picture a world with competing power centers, an unstable Russia stumbling into its post-Putin era, a nuclear-armed Iran emerging in the midst of an unruly nuclear age, and a United Nations incapable of carrying out its core functions—including convening the world’s countries to tackle problems, such as climate change, that no one state can solve and that pose a grave threat to global security and prosperity.

That’s just a glimpse into the future that leading global strategists and foresight practitioners forecast when the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed them in November on how they expect the world to change over the next ten years.

If this sketch leaves you gloomy, you’re in good company: Sixty percent of the experts who participated in our annual Global Foresight survey think the world will be worse off a decade hence. But despite the pessimism about the overall direction of global affairs that many expressed, their responses also turned up cause for hope when we asked more specific questions regarding geopolitics, the environment, disruptive technology, the global economy, and other domains.

The 288 respondents were mostly citizens of the United States (60 percent of those polled), with 17 percent from Europe and 11 percent from Latin America and the Caribbean. In total, respondents’ nationalities were spread across forty-eight countries.

Respondents also work in a variety of fields, including the private sector (27 percent), nonprofits (18 percent), academic or educational institutions (16 percent), government (16 percent), independent consulting (14 percent), and multilateral institutions (4 percent). They are dispersed across age ranges as well, with 10 percent between eighteen and thirty-five, 23 percent between thirty-six and fifty, 37 percent between fifty-one and sixty-five, and the remaining 29 percent aged sixty-six or older.

So what do these seasoned forecasters of the global future expect over the coming decade? Below are the survey’s ten biggest findings.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

1. The outlook for normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains positive—and a Palestinian state may be more likely than it seems 

Could the current convulsions in the Middle East portend major transformations in the decade ahead? A remarkably high percentage of respondents think so, given that the survey was fielded after the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel and in the throes of the ensuing war in Gaza.

The outbreak of hostilities seemed to deal a big blow to progress that Saudi and Israeli leaders had been making toward a historic agreement to normalize relations between their countries. Some experts, in fact, have argued that one of the main goals of the October 7 attacks was to derail the deal.

Nevertheless, a clear majority of respondents—around 60 percent—expect Israel to have normalized diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia by 2034, suggesting that the underlying conditions that had been drawing the two countries together prior to war engulfing the region could outlast the fighting and remain salient.

Perhaps even more surprising, nearly one in five respondents believes that by 2034 Israel will have normalized diplomatic relations with an independent, sovereign Palestinian state. While this was a minority view, it indicates an alternative reading of the devastation of the last few months: that in the long run the violence that makes peace seems such a remote possibility could ultimately reinvigorate calls for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A slightly smaller percentage of respondents also anticipate normalized relations between Israel and Lebanon a decade from now.

Even if all this were to occur, however, don’t expect peace to break out all over the region. Few experts believe that Israel will have normalized relations with Syria (4 percent) or Iran (2 percent) by 2034.

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2. There are growing doubts about China seeking to forcibly seize Taiwan

Those surveyed are more convinced of ongoing political stability in China than in other world powers. For example, 86 percent believe that the Chinese Communist Party will still be in power by 2034, while only 3 percent expect the opposite. Only one respondent thinks that the country will become a failed state over the coming decade, a figure that rounds down to 0 percent of the total. For the United States, that figure is 5 percent. For Russia, it’s 11 percent.

This expert consensus cuts against speculation among some observers that recent developments such as the country’s economic struggles and the protests that brought Xi Jinping’s “zero COVID” policy to an abrupt end could threaten the regime.

Yet the survey results also cast doubt on another narrative about China—more prominent earlier this century—as the unstoppable future global hegemon. Perceptions of Beijing could be starting to shift.

On one of the most pressing issues on the horizon—whether China will attempt to retake Taiwan by force in the coming years—respondents expressed some notable skepticism. While half expect this to occur within the next ten years, the proportion who foresee such a military operation has gone down substantially from 70 percent of respondents when we asked this same question in last year’s survey . Also significant: One of the big changes from 2022 to 2023 is an increase in the percentage of experts who state that they “don’t know” whether China will try reunification by force.

One potential explanation for these shifts is that experts are reassessing either China’s intentions or its capabilities regarding Taiwan in light of developments over the past year. The difficulties Russia has faced in its war against Ukraine or China’s economic troubles, for example, might make Beijing more reluctant to assume the risks of major military action.

The survey pool also seemed split over China’s wider global role in the coming decade. For example, 44 percent think that the world will largely divide into China-aligned and US-aligned blocs over that period, ushering in a bipolar world, but 39 percent disagree. Similarly, 33 percent agree that China and Russia will become formal allies by 2034, cementing the less formal “no limits” partnership the two countries currently have, but 37 percent say the opposite. Are we headed for a new cold war? Our respondents aren’t so sure.

3. Brace for upheaval in Russia, including a possible Russia-NATO conflict

Mark your calendars: Sometime in the next decade, according to many respondents, a new leader will likely assume control of Russia—under unknown circumstances and amid potential turmoil. In December Vladimir Putin, who has dominated Russian politics since 1999, announced plans to do what he has twice altered Russia’s constitution to make possible: seek more time in power. He is widely expected to win the country’s March presidential election, but the experts we surveyed do not expect his rule to last the decade: 71 percent say that he will not still be president of Russia by 2034, and a further 22 percent are not sure.

Will age end Putin’s rule—he will be eighty-two in 2034—or will political events intervene? A large number of survey respondents expect substantial turmoil in Russia over the next decade. In a similar result to one of the biggest findings from last year’s survey , 35 percent of respondents believe that Russia will break up internally in the coming ten years because of developments such as revolution, civil war, or political disintegration. For those who think that Putin will no longer be president in 2034, this figure rises to 40 percent. Even among those who think Putin will still rule Russia in 2034, nearly one quarter nevertheless expect the country to break up.

Around 11 percent of respondents cited Russia as the country that is not currently a failed state but is most likely to become one within the next ten years—lower than in last year’s survey and a small minority, but still the highest percentage that any country received.

Only 6 percent of respondents believe Putin will be able to achieve his war aim of turning Ukraine into a Russian client state within the next decade. But how any failures in Ukraine affect his political longevity remains to be seen. Even the June march on Moscow by Wagner Group commander Yevgeniy Prigozhin ultimately has not seemed to endanger Putin’s grip on power, given the swift suppression of the mutiny and Prigozhin’s death two months later in a plane crash.

Those who expect Russia to break up are more likely to foresee Moscow engaging in worrisome activity: Thirty-eight percent believe that the country and NATO will fight a war in the next ten years, compared with 25 percent of other respondents, and 20 percent think that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in the decade ahead, compared with 11 percent of other experts.

Overall, in another significant finding, nearly one in three respondents (29 percent) at least somewhat agree that Russia and NATO will engage in a direct military conflict over this timeframe—a slightly higher percentage than in last year’s survey .

4. US military dominance will endure and prospects for other elements of its power are looking up, with diplomatic clout an exception

By 2034, according to a large majority (73 percent) of respondents, the world will be multipolar, with multiple centers of power, in contrast to the unipolar moment that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving the United States as the last superpower standing.

But at the same time, most also expect the United States to retain a preponderance of power across several key dimensions. Eighty-one percent of respondents expect the United States to remain the world’s dominant military power in 2034. A similarly large majority (79 percent) anticipate that US security alliances and partnerships in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, forged over the course of the Cold War and unipolar moment, will endure—a notable expectation given that these alliances and partnerships could be a major subject of debate during the 2024 US presidential election. Notably, a smaller majority—63 percent—believe the United States will be the dominant source of technological innovation by 2034, and just over half (52 percent) say it will be the dominant economic power.

This level of confidence in the longevity of US power is, in fact, greater than the level respondents expressed when we conducted our last survey at the end of 2022. The exception is in the diplomatic realm, where once again only one third of respondents expected the United States to be the world’s dominant diplomatic power in ten years.

Even experts who expect the United States’ global military dominance to endure don’t think that will be enough to sustain a sole superpower status. Those who envision the United States as the dominant military power of 2034 are just as likely to anticipate that the world will be multipolar in that year (73 percent) as those who do not believe US military dominance will last the decade (72 percent). And while those who foresee future US military dominance are more likely to also expect the United States to maintain its European, Asian, and Middle Eastern security alliances and partnerships, it’s important to keep in mind that sustaining those alliances and partnerships also requires the kind of US diplomatic clout that respondents are less sanguine about going forward.

With these dynamics at play in the coming decade, will Europe turn all the talk about “ strategic autonomy ” into action by taking more responsibility for its own security? Only 31 percent of respondents believe that the continent will have achieved “strategic autonomy” by 2034. Even Europeans themselves are largely split: Forty percent think they will have such autonomy but 36 percent disagree. Among non-European respondents, half don’t see it happening while only 29 percent do.

The overall survey data also reflects mostly US perspectives. Sorting respondents by country of citizenship reveals more diverse views on the nature and longevity of US power. For example, while respondents from Latin America and the Caribbean are slightly more likely than respondents overall to expect US military dominance to remain in 2034, they are far less likely than other survey takers to say the same about US power in other domains.

A startling 30 percent of Latin American respondents also predict that the United States will break up internally in the coming decade for reasons such as revolution, civil war, or political disintegration (compared with 9 percent among other respondents).

That speaks to a broader potential vulnerability for the United States over the coming decade that doesn’t fit neatly into a single category of power: its domestic political divisions and challenges. Nearly 12 percent of respondents overall expect the United States to break up by 2034—a much lower percentage than those who thought the same about Russia, as noted above, but a higher percentage than those who said the same about other powers such as China (7 percent) and India (6 percent). Around 5 percent of respondents identified the United States as the country that is not currently a failed state but is most likely to become one within the next ten years—fewer than those who pointed to Russia (11 percent) and Pakistan (8 percent), but roughly on par with the percentage of respondents who cited Afghanistan, Argentina, and Lebanon. Only small minorities are expressing these views, but they are nevertheless worth heeding.

5. Respondents have low confidence in the United Nations

While many respondents expect the world in ten years to be multipolar, they also foresee challenges with the international organizations that could mediate among competing centers of power. The multilateral institutions established after World War II—the United Nations (UN), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others—were designed in part as places for rival powers to hash out their differences without resort to military force. The experts we surveyed, however, don’t expect these institutions to be fully capable of playing this role over the coming decade.

The most striking lack of confidence is in the United Nations. A mere 2 percent of respondents say that by 2034 the organization as a whole will be entirely capable of solving the challenges core to its mission, with a further 23 percent stating that it will be somewhat capable of doing so. As for the UN Security Council, nobody—literally zero respondents—believes that it will be entirely capable, and just 17 percent expect it will be somewhat so. This contrasts with 68 percent who think that the Security Council will display varying degrees of incapacity.

This lack of confidence holds across survey demographics. What seems to set apart those with at least some confidence in the Security Council is a conviction that it will reform itself: Seventy-six percent of those who think that the Security Council will be somewhat capable of executing on its mission in 2034 also believe that at least one new permanent member will be added to the body within the next ten years (the most likely candidates: India, Germany, and Japan). Among those who say the Security Council will be incapable of carrying out its functions, only 53 percent think at least one new permanent seat will be added.

The United Nations is just the clearest example of muted faith in multilateral institutions. Very few respondents expect any of the major international bodies we asked about to be entirely capable of doing their jobs. Nevertheless, over half of the experts we surveyed believe that the IMF, World Bank, and Group of Seven (G7) will be at least somewhat capable of doing so. Even this confidence, though, may reflect the largely Western perspective of our survey pool rather than a wider global consensus. Only 36 percent of respondents from Latin America think that by 2034 the IMF will be at least somewhat capable of addressing challenges central to its mission, and just 35 percent say the same of the G7.

6. The next nuclear age will be an ungoverned one—with more weapons, fewer guardrails, and the resurgent threat of nuclear terrorism

We appear to be entering a third nuclear age following those that occurred during the Cold War and post-Cold War periods. And a lack of international governance is likely to be one of the new nuclear age’s defining features, as geopolitical competition intensifies and nuclear arms-control treaties unravel. What happens when the guardrails for limiting the buildup, spread, and use of nuclear weapons are removed?

of experts believe at least one currently non-nuclear state will obtain nuclear weapons by 2034.

A huge majority of respondents foresees proliferation: Eighty-four percent say that at least one currently non-nuclear state will obtain these weapons by 2034. The most likely country, cited by 73 percent of experts, is Iran, but considerable numbers also expect Saudi Arabia (40 percent), South Korea (25 percent), and Japan (19 percent) to join the nuclear club. These numbers are similar to the results from last year’s survey , but one difference is worrying. In the survey conducted at the end of 2022, on average respondents thought that 1.4 new actors would have nuclear weapons within a decade. This has now risen to 1.7. Though this may seem like a small increase, it suggests that compared with 2022, experts now believe nuclear weapons will spread more quickly—about 21 percent more quickly, in fact.

When asked about which actors they expect to actually use a nuclear weapon within the next ten years, 20 percent of our experts said a terrorist group—up from just 3 percent last year. In this year’s survey we included terrorist groups explicitly among our multiple-choice options whereas in last year’s we included a more general “other state or a non-state actor” option, which may account for some of the year-over-year difference. But the fact that one in five respondents is forecasting such an alarming scenario is still noteworthy and concerning. Around 14 percent of respondents expect Russia to use a nuclear weapon by 2024, while roughly 15 percent forecast that North Korea will do so. But on a more positive note: More than 60 percent of respondents believe nuclear weapons won’t be used over the coming decade.

Even if international institutions were capable of restraining nuclear proliferation, our respondents see little demand for them to do so. Only 3 percent think that the greatest expansion of global cooperation over the next ten years will occur in the realm of nuclear nonproliferation.

7. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve all its war aims, but many see a future for Ukraine in the European Union and NATO

Among Ukraine’s primary objectives in its war with Russia is to retake the territory in the eastern part of the country and the Crimean peninsula that Russia seized during its first incursion into the country in 2014 and second invasion in 2022. While only 12 percent of survey respondents expect Ukraine to regain control of its pre-2014 territory by 2034, just under half (48 percent) anticipate that it will reassert authority over the Ukrainian territory it held prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

As for Putin’s effort to subjugate Ukraine, the long-term outlook for Moscow doesn’t look good: A mere 6 percent of respondents think that Ukraine will end up dependent on Russia or otherwise in its orbit by 2034.

Ukraine’s goals also include joining NATO and the European Union as a means of integrating with the West and ensuring its future security. A slight majority of respondents (54 percent) expect to see Ukraine in the European Union in the next ten years—a process, in fact, that Kyiv and Brussels have already set in motion (though plenty of hurdles remain). Forty-four percent also anticipate that Ukraine will have joined NATO during this period, with this prospect likely to be debated at the Alliance’s upcoming summit in Washington, DC this summer. These expectations overlap with views about Ukraine’s future independence and territory in perhaps predictable ways. For example, among respondents who believe that Ukraine will be a sovereign, independent state a decade from now, 64 percent say that Ukraine will also be an EU member by that time, compared with 40 percent for other respondents.

8. Climate change is the greatest threat to global prosperity—and a decline in emissions could still be far off

The single biggest threat to global prosperity over the coming decade is climate change, according to a plurality of respondents, with 37 percent selecting it as their main concern—significantly ahead of war between major powers (25 percent), the second-most-cited option. Climate change is also by far the most frequently cited field in which respondents expect the greatest expansion of global cooperation over the next ten years (49 percent), well ahead of technology governance and public health as the next-most-identified areas at roughly 14 percent each. Notably, when we asked this question in 2022 a significantly higher 25 percent of respondents picked public health. As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, the priority placed on this domain may be lessening even though the risk of more pandemics, which climate change may exacerbate , hasn’t diminished.

Views on risk and response are connected. Those who see climate change as a more serious threat expect more growth in international collaboration to counteract it, with 63 percent of them identifying the issue as the one that will generate the greatest increase in global cooperation; the inverse is also true. In one interesting wrinkle in the data, respondents who work in the private sector, which will have to create or commercialize the technology needed to mitigate climate change, seem less concerned about the potential impact of climate change on global prosperity: Only 23 percent identify it as the top risk, relative to 32 percent who point to a major-power war.

The relative optimism about countries’ ability to work together to address climate change is tempered by relative pessimism about how much that cooperation will achieve in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Fifty-three percent of respondents do not believe that global greenhouse gas emissions will have peaked and begun to decline by 2034, compared with 44 percent who think they will. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak before 2025 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. The later emissions peak, the more sharply they will need to fall if countries want to meet targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Perhaps in recognition of these considerations, more than half of respondents think that by 2034 humans will have begun deliberate, large-scale geoengineering of the planet to reduce the impacts of climate change or achieve other goals.

9. As social media continues its descent into toxicity, the AI age is dawning (with those under fifty markedly more concerned)

Here’s the big picture on our findings regarding technology: Respondents overall have a very negative view of social media and a somewhat positive view of artificial intelligence (AI). But zoom in and the picture gets more complicated.

The wariness of social media that experts expressed in last year’s survey is as widespread as ever: This year, eight in ten respondents (81 percent) say that social media will, on balance, have a negative impact on global affairs over the coming ten years.

As for AI, despite a year of high-profile speculation about today’s helpful chatbot becoming tomorrow’s superintelligent force beyond human control, respondents feel reasonably good. Fifty-one percent believe that AI will have a somewhat or very positive effect on global affairs in the next decade, relative to 38 percent who say the opposite.

Behind these numbers, however, are notable disagreements on AI within demographic groups. Men, for example, are more likely to envision AI having a positive impact (53 percent positive versus 36 percent negative), with women evenly split (44 percent for both positive and negative). Those who work in the private sector are much more positive about AI; all other respondents from employment groups with sufficient replies to analyze are negative or roughly evenly split.

More striking is the division between age groups, with the watershed at around fifty years old. Fifty-six percent of those over fifty forecast AI having good effects and 33 percent bad ones. The figures are almost exactly the reverse among those under fifty: Thirty-nine percent of younger respondents expect AI to have good effects over the next decade, while 52 percent expect bad effects.

Twenty-four percent of respondents under fifty also say that technology governance will be the area that experiences the greatest expansion of global cooperation over the next decade, underscoring the greater degree of concern among younger generations. Among older respondents, this figure drops to just 9 percent.

Why might this gap in perceptions between age groups exist? It’s not clear from the data, but it’s possible that digital natives are more able to see the dangers of new technology. Or perhaps since younger people tend to be at lower levels of seniority in the workplace, they may be more worried about automation jeopardizing their own employment opportunities.

10. Experts are decidedly pessimistic about the decade ahead—no matter their age, gender, or country of citizenship

This year, for the first time, we posed a question that we hope to now ask on an annual basis as a means of tracking sentiment on the global outlook: “Generally speaking, do you think the world a decade from now will be better off or worse off than it is today?” Our baseline results reveal a pool of expert respondents who are more concerned than hopeful: Sixty percent say the world will be worse off while 40 percent expect it to be better off. This ratio is surprisingly widespread, with no statistically significant difference discernible when sorting the sample by gender, age, country of citizenship, or field of employment.

It’s a sobering assessment—and an indicator we’ll plan to monitor year after year to better understand which way the world is tending.

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10 grand challenges we'll face by 2050

Editing genes, ageing populations, rising sea levels… the world is moving faster than ever. What will those trends mean for our society over the next 30 years?

Grand Challenges

In this special series , Future Now takes a close look at the biggest, most important issues we face in the 21st Century.

For two months, we'll bring you insight from leading scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs and influencers to help you make sense of the challenges we face in today's rapidly evolving world.

Over the last few months, BBC Future Now has been examining some of the biggest problems humankind faces right now: land use to accommodate exploding populations, the future of nuclear energy , the chasm between rich and poor – and much more.

But what about the big challenges that are brewing for the future? In 30 years, what might be on the world’s agenda to solve? It’s impossible to predict, but we can get clues from how current trends in science and technology may play out. Here are just some of the potential big issues of tomorrow:

GENETIC MODIFICATION OF HUMANS

Debates among scientists started roaring last year over a new technology that lets us edit human DNA. It’s called Crispr (pronounced ‘crisper’) and it’s a means of altering people’s DNA to carve diseases like cancer out of the equation.

Sounds great, right? But what if takes a dark ethical turn, and it turns into a eugenics-esque vanity project to churn out ‘designer babies’ , selecting embryos that produce babies that will have a certain amount of intelligence or that have certain physical characteristics?

While it’s still not widely used enough to be considered a current “grand challenge”, this is an up-and-coming advancement whose wide-ranging repercussions we need to be prepared for – and it’s all the more reason to ensure ethicists have a seat at the table at every laboratory, university and corporation that might be itching to alter our DNA.

“Proper reflection on what about us we might want to preserve takes time – it should draw on a wide range of perspectives about what it means to be human,” Nicholas Agar, professor of ethics at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, told BBC Future Now earlier this year. “It’s difficult to set aside this time for ethical reflection when new technological possibilities seem to be coming thick and fast.”

A MORE AGED POPULATION THAN EVER BEFORE

We won’t just be wrestling with the fact that the world’s population is exploding – but people are living longer than ever, too. Which is great – but all those senior citizens are going to require care. In fact, the number of centenarians will increase more than 50 times – from 500,000 today to over 26 million by 2100 . From the UK to Japan to China , societies with large numbers of people over 65 will become more common. In the next couple of decades, as that increase starts to happen, we’ll need better care for the elderly (Japan is even eyeing robots ) and perhaps policies to allow more immigrants to try and make up for ageing workforces and in some cases, declining birth rates.

LOST CITIES

You don’t need to look very hard in a place like Miami to see how cities are changing in the 21st Century – rising sea levels are gradually making some of them disappear. Fuelled by climate change, not only are floods becoming more common in the streets, but the changing weather patterns have also influenced building design. Aside from more seawalls, the city is requiring all new buildings be built with their first floor built higher. But that’s all a sticking plaster – if current trends continue, we may have to come to terms with losing whole swathes of cities, islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh. The economic impact to regions will be profound, and climate refugees could become the norm.

Pressure is already growing on cities, as urban populations grow. If climate change forces mass migration, then existing infrastructure, services and economies may be stretched to breaking point.

THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL MEDIA

Social media has complicated the way we communicate for the better part of a decade. And it’s not going anywhere anytime soon, given that most people get their news from it now . That’s before we even get into the mess of online harassment, as well. What might social media look like in 30 years, and by that time, what are some threats it might pose?

A world with no privacy, for one. That’s one problem we’re already seeing. And besides weathering away our sense of and desire for anonymity and privacy , social media brings with it the many problems of cyberbullying too. Many charities and non-profit organisations across the world have mobilised in the fight against internet trolls , but it’s an open question about whether law enforcement agencies and the social media companies can fix it or whether it will get worse.

Then there’s also the problem of our information diet to consider: if the status quo of ubiquitous fake news remains, how will that shape how people see the world? If individuals spend months, years, even decades of their life exposed only to unreliable news sources, it does not augur well for civilised society and debate.

That said, given how fast social media has arrived in the world, an optimist may suggest that those problems could soon be resolved. In 30 years’ time we may be dealing with social media issues that we’ve not even considered yet. After all, Facebook is only 13 years old.

NEW GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

The past year has seen a complete upset of our geopolitics’ fragile balance. That could make the global stability of the next couple of decades a complete question mark.

North Korean missile launches. Thousands of refugees crossing borders to flee turmoil. Hackers meddling in other nations’ elections. Rising nationalist sentiment worldwide. Headlines in 2016 (and so far, 2017) have been dominated by never-ending political drama that’s been fuelling a ‘geopolitical minefield’ and an ‘ unprecedented geopolitical shift ’ – whether it’s managing unpredictable North Korea, the plight of Syrian refugees, or Britain’s transition from the European Union. Throw in widespread hacking, nuclear missiles and other dangerous technology, and it’s easy to see why maintaining basic diplomacy becomes vital.

SAFE CAR TRAVEL

Despite all the rapid urbanisation and talk of bullet trains and fantastical technology like the Hyperloop coming to the fore, the car isn’t going anywhere – and in fact, in the next couple decades, there will be even more of them on the road.

Driverless car technology is swiftly rolling out, with major tech companies and automakers aggressively seeking to debut human-free vehicles in coming years. But in addition, the sheer number of cars – self-driving or not – is going to skyrocket, studies show. In countries like China that are seeing a growing middle class , the environmental and infrastructural needs that an increasingly road-faring population demands is going to be a grand challenge. How do we ensure safety, fight pollution, and make sure driverless cars aren’t a menace on the road?

DWINDLING RESOURCES

The new tech and devices that characterise the 21st Century all require rare earth metals to make – an average smartphone has over 60 “ingredients”. That’s putting a strain on the planet’s natural resources : in China, where 90% of the world’s rare earth metals are found, it’s estimated that its mines will run out in the next two decades – and good substitutes for those materials are hard to come by.

SETTLING OTHER WORLDS

How will space tourism companies make sure their activities are safe? How will we find ways to send humans to Mars or another planet to live there, as Stephen Hawking has urged us to figure out ? Space travel might seem like the domain of space agencies and billionaires today, but as it becomes more accessible to everybody else, a whole host of new challenges will emerge. Outer space is increasingly looking less like the final frontier and more like our backyard, and with more money being shelled out to get humans up to the inky abyss than ever before, the logistics, safety and diplomacy behind the challenge all demand serious consideration.

BOOSTED BRAINPOWER

It’s already common to use drugs to boost brainpower (whether it’s coffee, or something stronger, like modafinil ), and most of the developed world now relies on their smartphones as an ‘externalised’ memory – but let’s extrapolate that out a few decades. Imagine targeted pharmaceuticals that make us think faster than currently possible, and technological implants that help us concentrate beyond normal human ability for hours or days, for example – these advances are already well underway in laboratories around the world. The question it raises is: what happens to those that cannot afford such enhancements? Could it widen inequality, and allow the rich to get richer? Then there’s also the legal and ethical issues: it’s acceptable to drink a coffee before you sit an exam, but is it ok to use an implant or a smart drug? The challenges posed by intelligence enhancement are only just emerging.

AI’S DOMINANCE IN OUR LIVES

Futurist Ray Kurzweil has made a host of predictions – some inspirational, others downright alarming. One of them is the sci-fi-sounding notion that suggests artificial intelligence will one day become more powerful than human intelligence and improve itself at an exponential rate, otherwise known as ‘ the singularity’ .

It’s far from the majority view, but few would deny that AI is only going to get more powerful. So, like in the case of gene editing, the tech and AI community will need to consider the ethical and societal implications of their work as AI comes to shape more realms of our life, from healthcare to financial markets.

As for end-of-the-world extinction scenarios, it’s frankly not likely – but that shouldn’t obscure the fact that AI is poised to change how we live and work in profound ways. It is also not impossible that specific AIs could malfunction or run out of their creators’ control, leading to very human disasters, where lives are lost or millions of dollars are wiped out.

That’s just a taster of what we may face in 2050. What challenges do you think are in store for the human race? Let us know on  Facebook , or Twitter .

+ Read more from our Grand Challenges series:

Is the ‘end of modern medicine’ near?

Are we running out of land?

How automation will affect you  

Garry Kasparov: The upsides of AI

How slow internet affects income

Why ‘hydro-politics’ will shape the 21st Century

50 grand challenges for the 21st Century  

There’s a problem with the way we define inequality

Bryan Lufkin is the editor of Future Now for BBC Future. Follow him on Twitter at @bryan_lufkin .

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25+ Free Futuristic PowerPoint PPT Templates to Download for 2024

Do you need to put together a professional-looking futuristic PowerPoint presentation? Start your presentation with a professionally crafted futuristic template from Envato Elements. 

Futuristic PowerPoint presentations need to look professional. If they don't, you run the risk of losing potential clients. Starting your presentation with a professional template helps you save time and money. 

Don't waste another second building your futuristic PowerPoint presentation . Check out all the top-selling futuristic PowerPoint templates available on Envato Elements. We also have even more high-quality futuristic PowerPoint themes on GraphicRiver as well. 

Best Premium Futuristic PowerPoint Templates on Envato Elements (With Unlimited Use)

Envato Elements has a library full of the best premium futuristic PowerPoint templates  available on the web.

For a low monthly cost, you can access this massive library of templates . You'll also get also access to all the other creative assets available on Envato Elements such as:

• graphic templates
• and much more

All the templates on Elements come ready to use. They feature high-quality designs. All the slides are customizable. This gives you complete control over how your presentation will look. 

Premium PowerPoint templates are added weekly on Envato Elements. It's the number one source for your template needs. Check out some of the newest PowerPoint designs on Envato Elements.

You can buy single futuristic PowerPoint presentations on GraphicRiver. These presentations deliver the same professional quality and are sure to take your presentations to the next level.

Let's now take a look at some the best futuristic PowerPoint templates available on Envato Elements.

5 Best Futuristic PowerPoint Templates (Premium From Envato Elements - For 2024)

There are many premium futuristic PowerPoint templates on Envato Elements and GraphicRiver. To help you with your search, we've collected the top five premium futuristic templates: 

1. Glowa - Technology PowerPoint

If you're creating a technology presentation or a pitch deck, this future technology PPT can be your go-to template. All elements are easily editable and can be customized how you see fit. 

Here's what you can expect from this futuristic PowerPoint theme:

• 12 PPTX files
• 12 PPT files
• three premade color themes
• drag and drop picture placeholders

2. Futont: Futuristic PowerPoint

Futont is sure to take your presentation to the next level. It features sleek looking slide layouts, beautiful fonts, and a minimalist look. This is sure to impress your audience.

Here are a few of this futuristic PowerPoint templates features:

• 30 total slides
• modern layouts based on master slides
• free web fonts used
• aspect ratio 16:9

Get started on your next presentation with this high-quality template .

3. Futuristic

This eye-catching futuristic PowerPoint template can work for your business and personal presentations. All the elements are fully editable and no other software is needed. With this template, you'll have a presentation done in no time. 

Here's what you can expect from this template:

• 150 total slides 
• 30 slides for each template
• five color variations
• pixel-perfect illustrations

4.  Futurist Slides

Next on our list is Futurist Slides, which can be bought on GraphicRiver. The template features futuristic shapes, bright colors, and includes handcrafted infographics.

You'll find plenty of useful elements on the slides. Included in the template are:

• pricing templates

The best part is, this template comes with over 180 slides. Grab this massive template now.

5.  Go Public

Go Public is a fully animated technology and networking presentation template. The green color scheme and 100+ slides available in this template are sure to help you improve your presentations. 

Here are a few features of this futuristic PowerPoint presentation:

• 11 color schemes 
• 90+ XML files 
• 60+ master slide layouts
• fully customizable elements
• section break slides

25 Top Free Futuristic PowerPoint Presentation Templates to Download for 2024

Premium PowerPoint templates offer the highest quality designs compared to free templates. The premium templates on Envato Elements and GraphicRiver are very affordable. But if you're on a tight budget, there are alternatives to the premium options. 

Before looking for a free futuristic PowerPoint template on the web, check Envato's free offerings first. Try out various premium template files (not always futuristic PowerPoints) at no cost to you.

Here's the deal:

Every month Envato Elements offers 12 different hand-selected files, (fonts, presentations, videos, and more). Create a free account to download this month's free premium files now.

Or try Envato Market for free. They offer seven handpicked monthly freebies. Log in with your Envato Market account to get this month's handpicked premium freebies . 

Sometimes, your budget is zero, though. For times like that I've collected 25 of the top free futuristic PPT templates for 2024 on the web:

1.  Leader Concept

This future PPT template focuses on presentations for leadership and momentum. This free futuristic PowerPoint template has a color theme. It'll automatically apply color when copied and pasted.

2.  Abstract Modern Bubble

The free futuristic PowerPoint template has a modern design and intense colors. The shapes, colors, and text are easily editable, so you can customize the theme to your specific needs.

3.  Artificial Intelligence High Technology

This futuristic PPT template comes with 48 different slides. It also comes with many cool AI graphics and robots. You can also use this template to present something that needs to have a futuristic theme. 

4.  Abstract Wave Lines

The vector graphics are 100% fully editable for this free futuristic PowerPoint template. The background for the slides features colorful wavy lines and modern looking shapes. 

5.  Eco-Friendly Electric Car

The main slide has a car with lightning sparks on a black background. This futuristic PPT template has the standard aspect ratio of 16:9. The standard ratio is what many other premium PowerPoint templates have. 

6.  Technical Blueprint

If you're going to give some type of engineering, construction, or programming presentation, then this futuristic template is for you. The futuristic PPT template uses a blueprint style and a monospaced font.

Gaoler is a feature-rich futuristic template that's got 25 different slides for you to work with. You'll also have 80 icons and a world map to build your presentation with. Very few free PPT templates for 2024 can say the same.

8. Creative School

This free futuristic template has a bold design. You'll find lively circle and icon patterns in the various slides. By changing the master slide, you can change the colors of these different patterns.

9.  Hexagonal Tech

The hexagonal patterns give this template a very futuristic look and feel. Expect to find 25 unique slides that are all editable in this future PPT template.

10.  Tech Illustrated

This futuristic presentation template comes with graphs, charts, and tables. They're on 25 different slides that have the standard 16:9 aspect ratio. If you need to present something that's in the tech field, this free futuristic PowerPoint template will work well. 

11.  Technology Connections

Featured is a design with a tech look and a background of connected lines. Export this future PPT template in PDF and JPG as well as use this as a Google Slides theme. It's not a bad option if you're looking for free PPT templates for 2024.

12.  Technology Pixels

Use this free future technology PPT PowerPoint template to talk about consulting, IT, the internet, and software. It's 100% editable and ready for you to download right now.

13.  Colorful Stats

Use this free futuristic PowerPoint template to present data results or statistics. The background mimics a line graph that can be customized.

14. Blue Medical

This one is for those looking for free future PPT templates for 2024 with a futuristic medical theme. It comes with a clean design that's ideal for medical presentations. The blue color scheme represents trust, health, and professionalism. 

15.  Finance and Business

Finance and Business PowerPoint template will work for your business presentations. The background consists of financial graphs and businessmen on with a blue color scheme.

16.  Data Analysis

This free futuristic PowerPoint template has three master slides. A main, print, and Slide one. Older versions of PowerPoint down to the 2007 version can be used to edit the slides. 

17.  Business Report

26 unique slides with futuristic backgrounds are present in this future PPT template. It contains graphs, infographics, and charts. It's got everything you need to deliver a business report.

This futuristic presentation template can also be used in Google Slides. The diamond patterns on the slide backgrounds are what gives it a modern and futuristic look.

This free futuristic presentation template makes use of various layouts. This helps create a unique design. All the images and fonts in the example are included in your download.

20. Science

Use this free futuristic PowerPoint template for science presentations. They can also be used for any type of business presentation. This futuristic template background has a blue and green color scheme and abstract shapes.

21.  Future Technology

Any forward-thinking or technology presentation will work with this futuristic template. The design has dark and light blue colors with modern technology objects. If you've been looking for free PPT templates for 2024, try out this choice.

22.  Machine Intelligence

This free futuristic PowerPoint template contains an image of a robot in the form of a statue. This works for presentations that focus on machine learning, robotic technology, and artificial intelligence topics.

23.  Virtual Reality

Have a virtual reality presentation coming up? This futuristic template has all the standard features that come with PowerPoint templates. This will help you build a standard slideshow. 

This futuristic template features AI robots on the front with a yellow and blue color scheme. There are many shapes in the design of the template. This can give your presentation new looks from slide to slide. 

25.  Renewable Energy

All the objects, fonts, and colors are easily editable, and the slides come with the standard 16:9 ratio. This future PPT template will work well if you've got a renewable energy presentation or a business presentation, this template. Not a bad way to close our list of free PPT templates for 2024 with a futuristic design.

Want to know what design trends are currently being used for futuristic PowerPoint presentations? Keep reading! We'll go over the top five trends that you need to have in your next presentation.

How to Make a Professional Looking Futuristic PowerPoint Presentation

We've shown you plenty of premium futuristic templates for you to download. We'll now go over how you can customize these templates. 

In our example, we'll be using the premium template, Futuristic . This template features over one hundred and fifty slides and has five preset color schemes. 

1. Choose Your Slides and Remove Content

Before we even begin customizing the template, we'll need to remove any unwanted content.

This template features many slides. Not all of them will be useful for our presentation. So we'll just delete the ones that we don't need. Also, not all the content on each slide will be useful. So we can delete unneeded content as well. 

2. Add in Your Text

Next, we'll add in our presentation's information. This is the easiest step. Double click the placeholder text on each slide and copy and paste in our own text.

3. Change the Design. 

Often, the design in the templates don't match your brand. We can change the fonts and colors to better reflect our particular brand.

To change the font, first highlight the text you want to change the font for. Then navigate to the Home tab. From there select the font from the drop-down menu. You can also change the font size as well from the drop-down menu to the right of the font.

To change the color scheme of the template, navigate to the Design tab. From there, choose from all the various color schemes.

You can also create a custom color scheme. To do this, click the drop-down arrow on the right side of the Design screen. From the drop-down menu, choose Colors > Customize colors . 

4. Add in Your Images

5. Add Transitions

Now we can add the finishing touches to the presentation. Transitions add that professional polish to our slides. This makes the presentation more visually appealing and have a positive impact on your audience.

To add transitions, navigate to the Transitions tab. A menu appears with all the transitions that are available. To preview each transition, click the Preview button on the far left of the Transitions menu. 

Let's now have a look at five futuristic PowerPoint design tips. 

5 Fast Futuristic PowerPoint Design Tips for 2024

Finding a premium futuristic template PPT is a great start for a modern presentation. To take your PowerPoint to the next level, it's worth looking at some design tips. Lucky for you, I'm sharing five that you should know: 

1. Find New Ways to Show Images

Your photos are more than just decoration, they visualize your content. To draw more attention to your images, use unique image masks. These let you display your media in different shapes or abstract forms.

One design trend for 2024 is using geometric image masks, so try it out.

2. Make Use of Transition Effects

Transitions and animations are helpful tools in your presentation. When working on your future PPT template, add them to make your PowerPoint look dynamic. They can make data stand out when applied to infographics. 

3. Fonts Are Important

The futuristic aesthetic is made by more than just images. You've got to think of the font you plan on using too. Custom typefaces are worth checking out if you want a consistent theme. Finding a future-forward premium font will complete the look of your presentation.

4. Add Interactive Elements

Don't be afraid to involve your audience. It's one of the many ways to create memorable moments in your presentation. When working on your futuristic template, include opportunities to interact. Add a Q&A slide, use props, or a poll like ones made with Poll Everywhere . These are simple options that can make your content stick with your audience.

5. Simplicity Isn't Boring 

Coco Chanel once said that "simplicity is the keynote of all true elegance". It turns out that this quote applies to more than just fashion design. Minimal design can complement the look of your future PPT template. Try to reign in the desire to add a ton of elements to your slides. Sometimes, less is more.

5 Futuristic PowerPoint Presentation Design Trends for 2024

Futuristic PowerPoint presentations are quite popular today. They offer a modern and minimalistic design that viewers love to see. I've listed five of the top futuristic PowerPoint design trends below:

1. Blue and Green Color Schemes 

The colors that you choose to use in your template have a psychological effect on your audience. This means that you should select the color schemed for your project very carefully. 

The blue and green color scheme works will for a futuristic PowerPoint presentation. These colors signal trust, health, and harmony. That's exactly what you want to signal to your audience when delivering a futuristic type PowerPoint. 

2. Futuristic Images & Graphics

For most trendy futuristic PowerPoint presentations include some type of futuristic imagery. This can be in the form of images, graphics, or a combination of the two. 

Futuristic images and graphics aren't limited to robots and crazy looking electronics. The use of simple abstract shapes can work well to create a futuristic feel. 

3. Clean and Simple Fonts

One very popular trend is the use of clean and simple fonts. These types of fonts are minimal and very easy to read. 

Most fonts included with the Envato Elements and GraphicRiver futuristic PowerPoint presentations are simple fonts. Fonts that work well for a futuristic design are Futura, Good Times, and Robot. 

4. Spaced Out Layout

Another popular trend with futuristic PowerPoint presentations is spaced layouts on the slides. The spaced out and minimalist look really helps drive home the modern and futuristic theme. 

White space gives all the elements on the slides room to breathe. It'll help highlight your futuristic looking text, images, and graphics.

5. Subtle Layering of Elements

The use of layering in your slides will give your presentation a more futuristic feel. It'll also look more professional. The creative possibilities are endless when it comes to layering. You could:

• add in background images that have low opacity
• add objects on top of each other that contain text and images
• layer any of the other elements in your slides 

Simple layering works best. Don't get carried away with too much layering and have the layout look messy. 

Still not seeing the right PowerPoint template for presentation? There are even more best-selling premium templates that you can download. 

5 Benefits of Using the Best PowerPoint Presentation Templates With Pro Designs

We'll now go over five reasons why you should strongly consider purchasing a premium PPT template:

Benefits of Envato Elements (The Power of Unlimited Use)

Envato Elements offers incredible value. With a flat-rate subscription, you get access to thousands of high-quality PPT templates. 

Sign up for Envato Elements . You'll get access to thousands of unlimited use graphics and templates. Choose from web themes to presentation templates, and much more. You get all this for one low monthly price.

Remember, if you need just one futuristic PowerPoint presentation  then GraphicRiver has you covered. 

Let's now look at even more stylish PowerPoint templates.

Discover More Stylish PowerPoint Presentation Templates Designs for 2024

The premium futuristic PowerPoint templates in this article are the highest quality in 2024. They've got everything from professional designs, fully editable slides, and detailed graphics and charts. 

But these particular templates mentioned may not be exactly what you need for your upcoming project. Check out some of the other articles that we've got available on Envato Tuts+:

Common PowerPoint Questions Answered (FAQ)

PowerPoint is one of the most used tools for presentations. But that doesn't mean everyone that uses it is an expert. If you're looking to learn more about the program or just have some questions, have a look at this section:

1. How Can I Collaborate With My Team?

The first thing you'll want to do is save a copy of your future PPT template. Share this copy with your team members so they can leave comments or make edits. Once they send their copies back, you can compare your original file to the edited copies. You can use the PowerPoint Compare feature. You can read about this process here:

2. Is It Possible to Make a Video From My Presentation?

PowerPoint can easily create videos from your presentation. Once you're done working on your futuristic template, click on File . From that menu, click on Export , then click Create a Video .

You'll see some settings you can adjust, like for the video resolution and narration. Once done, click Create Video . 

3. How Many Slides Does My Presentation Need?

This answer all depends on how much content you have. How much time you've got to present is also a factor. A general rule to follow is to focus on one main point per slide. From there you can decide how many total slides you should use. To learn more about the topic, read this guide:

4. Can I See My Notes While Presenting? 

The short answer is yes, but it does depend on how many screens are available while presenting. Click on the Slideshow tab in PowerPoint from the computer you'll use for your presentation. Then check the Presenter View box in the Monitor group. This tutorial has a great video guide of the process:

5. How Do I Edit More Than One Picture at the Same Time?

To resize, move, or animate more than one picture at the same time, you'll have to group them. First, select multiple objects and right-click. From the context menu that opens, click select Group from within the Group... option. You can watch this 60 second video to quickly learn how to use this feature:

Learn More About PowerPoint With Envato Tuts+

Looking to expand your PowerPoint knowledge? There's no better place to start than Envato Tuts+. Our instructors have written many helpful courses, guides, and tutorials. These will be a great resource for anyone wanting to learn new skills. Check out a few of them below, or browse our PowerPoint articles on our website:

Grab a Futuristic PowerPoint Theme Today

Don't waste another second trying to create a PowerPoint template from scratch. Envato Elements has a massive library of futuristic PowerPoints  with professional designs. 

Using a high-quality professional future PPT template will help you save time and money. It'll allow you to focus on the most important part of your presentation, the actual content. 

Envato Elements has many professional PowerPoint templates and creative assets. With a low monthly payment, download any of the premium PowerPoint templates available. 

Only need to buy one future simple PPT PowerPoint presentation ? Visit GraphicRiver and browse through thousands of other PowerPoint presentations. With GraphicRiver, you can buy each template one at a time.

Editorial Note: This post has been updated with contributions from Nathan Umoh and Daniel Strongin . Nathan is a staff writer with Envato Tuts+. Daniel is a freelance instructor for Envato Tuts+.

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The present and future of AI

Finale doshi-velez on how ai is shaping our lives and how we can shape ai.

Finale Doshi-Velez, the John L. Loeb Professor of Engineering and Applied Sciences. (Photo courtesy of Eliza Grinnell/Harvard SEAS)

How has artificial intelligence changed and shaped our world over the last five years? How will AI continue to impact our lives in the coming years? Those were the questions addressed in the most recent report from the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100), an ongoing project hosted at Stanford University, that will study the status of AI technology and its impacts on the world over the next 100 years.

The 2021 report is the second in a series that will be released every five years until 2116. Titled “Gathering Strength, Gathering Storms,” the report explores the various ways AI is  increasingly touching people’s lives in settings that range from  movie recommendations  and  voice assistants  to  autonomous driving  and  automated medical diagnoses .

Barbara Grosz , the Higgins Research Professor of Natural Sciences at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) is a member of the standing committee overseeing the AI100 project and Finale Doshi-Velez , Gordon McKay Professor of Computer Science, is part of the panel of interdisciplinary researchers who wrote this year’s report. 

We spoke with Doshi-Velez about the report, what it says about the role AI is currently playing in our lives, and how it will change in the future.  

Q: Let's start with a snapshot: What is the current state of AI and its potential?

Doshi-Velez: Some of the biggest changes in the last five years have been how well AIs now perform in large data regimes on specific types of tasks.  We've seen [DeepMind’s] AlphaZero become the best Go player entirely through self-play, and everyday uses of AI such as grammar checks and autocomplete, automatic personal photo organization and search, and speech recognition become commonplace for large numbers of people.  

In terms of potential, I'm most excited about AIs that might augment and assist people.  They can be used to drive insights in drug discovery, help with decision making such as identifying a menu of likely treatment options for patients, and provide basic assistance, such as lane keeping while driving or text-to-speech based on images from a phone for the visually impaired.  In many situations, people and AIs have complementary strengths. I think we're getting closer to unlocking the potential of people and AI teams.

There's a much greater recognition that we should not be waiting for AI tools to become mainstream before making sure they are ethical.

Q: Over the course of 100 years, these reports will tell the story of AI and its evolving role in society. Even though there have only been two reports, what's the story so far?

There's actually a lot of change even in five years.  The first report is fairly rosy.  For example, it mentions how algorithmic risk assessments may mitigate the human biases of judges.  The second has a much more mixed view.  I think this comes from the fact that as AI tools have come into the mainstream — both in higher stakes and everyday settings — we are appropriately much less willing to tolerate flaws, especially discriminatory ones. There's also been questions of information and disinformation control as people get their news, social media, and entertainment via searches and rankings personalized to them. So, there's a much greater recognition that we should not be waiting for AI tools to become mainstream before making sure they are ethical.

Q: What is the responsibility of institutes of higher education in preparing students and the next generation of computer scientists for the future of AI and its impact on society?

First, I'll say that the need to understand the basics of AI and data science starts much earlier than higher education!  Children are being exposed to AIs as soon as they click on videos on YouTube or browse photo albums. They need to understand aspects of AI such as how their actions affect future recommendations.

But for computer science students in college, I think a key thing that future engineers need to realize is when to demand input and how to talk across disciplinary boundaries to get at often difficult-to-quantify notions of safety, equity, fairness, etc.  I'm really excited that Harvard has the Embedded EthiCS program to provide some of this education.  Of course, this is an addition to standard good engineering practices like building robust models, validating them, and so forth, which is all a bit harder with AI.

I think a key thing that future engineers need to realize is when to demand input and how to talk across disciplinary boundaries to get at often difficult-to-quantify notions of safety, equity, fairness, etc. 

Q: Your work focuses on machine learning with applications to healthcare, which is also an area of focus of this report. What is the state of AI in healthcare? 

A lot of AI in healthcare has been on the business end, used for optimizing billing, scheduling surgeries, that sort of thing.  When it comes to AI for better patient care, which is what we usually think about, there are few legal, regulatory, and financial incentives to do so, and many disincentives. Still, there's been slow but steady integration of AI-based tools, often in the form of risk scoring and alert systems.

In the near future, two applications that I'm really excited about are triage in low-resource settings — having AIs do initial reads of pathology slides, for example, if there are not enough pathologists, or get an initial check of whether a mole looks suspicious — and ways in which AIs can help identify promising treatment options for discussion with a clinician team and patient.

Q: Any predictions for the next report?

I'll be keen to see where currently nascent AI regulation initiatives have gotten to. Accountability is such a difficult question in AI,  it's tricky to nurture both innovation and basic protections.  Perhaps the most important innovation will be in approaches for AI accountability.

Topics: AI / Machine Learning , Computer Science

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Magazine Articles

A More Sustainable Path to 2050

Science shows us a clear path to 2050 in which both nature and 10 billion people can thrive together.

August 30, 2019

Written for The Nature Conservancy Magazine Fall 2019 issue by Heather Tallis, former lead scientist for TNC.

A few years ago The Nature Conservancy began a process of reassessing its vision and goals for prioritizing its work around the globe. The resulting statement called for a world where “nature and people thrive, and people act to conserve nature for its own sake and its ability to fulfill and enrich our lives.”

That sounds like a sweet future, but if you’re a scientist, like I am, you immediately start to wonder what that statement means in a practical sense. Could we actually get there? Is it even possible for people and nature to thrive together?

Our leaders had the same question. In fact, when the vision statement was first presented at a board meeting, our president leaned over and asked me if we had the science to support it.

“No,” I said. “But we can try to figure it out.”

There is a way to sustain nature and 10 billion people.

Explore the path to a better world. Just 3 changes yield an entirely different future.

Ultimately, I assembled a collaborative team of researchers to take a hard look at whether it really is possible to do better for both people and nature: Can we have a future where people get the food, energy and economic growth they need without sacrificing more nature?

Modeling the Status Quo: What the World Will Look Like in 2050

Working with peers at the University of Minnesota and 11 other universities, think tanks and nonprofits, we started by looking into what experts predict the world will look like in 2050 in terms of population growth and economic expansion. The most credible projections estimate that human population will increase from about 7 billion people today to 9.7 billion by 2050, and the global economy will be three times as large as it is today.

Our next step was to create a set of mathematical models analyzing how that growth will influence demand for food, energy and water.

We first asked how nature will be doing in 2050 if we just keep doing things the way we’ve been doing them. To answer this, we assumed that expanding croplands and pastures would be carved out of natural lands, the way they are today. And we didn’t put any new restrictions on the burning of fossil fuels. We called this the “business as usual” scenario. It’s the path we’re on today. On this current path, most of the world’s energy—about 76%—will come from burning fossil fuels. This will push the Earth’s average temperature up by about 5.8 degrees Fahrenheit, driving more severe weather, droughts, fires and other destructive patterns. That dirty energy also will expose half of the global population to dangerous levels of air pollution.

Dig into the Research

Explore the models behind the two paths to 2050 and download the published findings.

We first asked how nature will be doing in 2050 if we just keep doing things the way we’ve been doing them.

Meanwhile, the total amount of cropland will increase by about the size of the state of Colorado. Farms will also suffer from increasing water stress—meaning, simply, there won’t be enough water to easily supply agricultural needs and meet the water requirements of nearby cities, towns and wildlife.

In this business-as-usual scenario, fishing worldwide is left to its own devices and there are no additional measures in place to protect nature beyond what we have today. As a result, annual fish catches decline by 11% as fisheries are pushed to the brink by unsustainable practices. On land, we end up losing 257 million more hectares (about 10 Colorados) of our native forests and grasslands. Freshwater systems suffer, too, as droughts and water consumption, especially for agriculture, increase.

Overall, the 2050 predicted by this business-as-usual model is a world of scarcity, where neither nature nor people are thriving. The future is pretty grim under this scenario—it’s certainly not a world that any of us would want to live in.

We wanted to know, “does it really have to be this way?”

Modeling a More Sustainable 2050

Next, we used our model to test whether predicted growth by 2050 really requires such an outcome. In this version of the future, we allowed the global economy and the population to grow in exactly the same manner, but we adjusted variables to include more sustainability measures.

The 2050 predicted by the business-as-usual model is a world of scarcity, where neither nature nor people are thriving. The future is pretty grim under this scenario—it’s certainly not a world that any of us would want to live in.

We didn’t go crazy with the sustainability scenario. We didn’t assume that everyone was going to become a vegan or start driving hydrogen cell cars tomorrow. Instead, the model allowed people to continue doing the basic things we’re doing today, but to do them a little differently and to adopt some green technologies that already exist a little bit faster.

In this sustainable future, we limited global warming to 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit, which would force societies to reduce fossil fuel consumption to just 13% of total energy production. That means quickly adopting clean energy, which will increase the amount of land needed for wind, solar and other renewable energy development. But many of the new wind and solar plants can be built on land that has already been developed or degraded, such as rooftops and abandoned farm fields. This will help reduce the pressure to develop new energy sources in natural areas.

We also plotted out some changes in how food is produced. We assumed each country would still grow the same basic suite of crops, but to conserve water, fertilizer and land, we assumed that those crops would be planted in the growing regions where they are most suited. For example, in the United States we wouldn’t grow as much cotton in Arizona’s deserts or plant thirsty alfalfa in the driest parts of California’s San Joaquin Valley. We also assumed that successful fishery policies in use in some places today could be implemented all over the world.

Under this sustainability scenario, we required that countries meet the target of protecting 17% of each ecoregion, as set by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Only about half that much is likely to be protected under the business-as-usual scenario, so this is a direct win for nature.

What 2050 Could Look Like

The difference in this path to 2050 was striking. The number of additional people who will be exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution declines to just 7% of the planet’s population, or 656 million, compared with half the global population, or 4.85 billion people, in our business-as-usual scenario. Air pollution is already one of the top killers globally, so reducing this health risk is a big deal. Limiting climate change also reduces water scarcity and the frequency of destructive storms and wildfires, while staving off the projected widespread loss of plant and animal species (including my son’s favorite animal, the pika, that’s already losing its mountain habitat because of climate change).

In the sustainability scenario we still produce enough food for humanity, but we need less land and water to do it. So the total amount of land under agricultural production actually decreases by seven times the area of Colorado, and the number of cropland acres located in water-stressed basins declines by 30% compared with business as usual. Finally, we see a 26% increase in fish landings compared to 2010, once all fisheries are properly managed.

Although the land needed for wind and solar installations does grow substantially, we still keep over half of nearly all the world’s habitat types intact, and despite growth in cities, food production and energy needs, we end up with much more of the Earth’s surface left for nature than we would under the business-as-usual scenario.

Our modeling research let us answer our question. Yes, a world where people and nature thrive is entirely possible. But it’s not inevitable. Reaching this sustainable future will take hard work—and we need to get started immediately.

3 Sustainable Changes To Make Now

That’s where organizations like TNC come in. The Conservancy is working on strategies with governments and businesses to adopt sustainable measures, providing near- and long-term benefits to society as a whole. Our research shows there’s at least one path to a more sustainable world in 2050, and that major advances can be made if all parts of society focus their efforts on three changes.

First, we need to ramp up clean energy and site it on lands that have already been developed or degraded. In the Mojave Desert, for instance, TNC has identified some 1.4 million acres of former ranchlands, mines and other degraded areas that would be ideal for solar development. We need to do much more to remove the policy and economic barriers that still make a transition to clean energy hard. Technology is no longer the major limiting factor. We are.

The most critical action each of us can take is to support global leaders who have a plan for stopping climate change in our lifetimes.

Second, we need to grow more food using less land and water. One way to do that is by raising crops in places that are best suited for them. The Conservancy has been piloting this, too. In Arizona, TNC partnered with local farmers in the Verde River Valley to help them switch from growing thirsty crops like alfalfa and corn in the heat of the summer to growing malt barley, which can be harvested earlier in the season with less draw on precious water supplies. This is not a revolutionary change—the same farmers are still growing crops on the same land—but it can have a revolutionary impact.

Finally, we need to end overfishing. The policy tools to do so have been available for many years. What we must do now is get creative about how we get those policies adopted and enforced. One example I have been impressed by is our work in Mexico, where TNC is involved in looking at the root causes of what’s limiting good fishing behavior. The answer is unexpected: social security debt that many fishers have accrued by being off the books for many years. The Conservancy is exploring an ambitious partnership and a novel financial mechanism that could forgive this debt and persuade more fishers to report their catch and adopt sustainability measures.

The Most Important Change Now: Clean Energy

These are just a few examples from North America. There are many more from around the world. To achieve a more sustainable future, governments, industry and civic institutions everywhere will have to make substantial changes—and the most important one right now is to make a big investment in clean energy over the next 10 years. That’s a short timeline, but not an impossible one. I don’t like what I’m seeing yet, but I’m hopeful. It took the United States just a decade to reach the moon, once the country put its mind to the goal. And solar energy is already cheaper (nearly half the price per megawatt) than coal, and outpacing it for new capacity creation—something no one predicted would happen this fast.

We need to do much more to remove the policy and economic barriers that still make a transition to clean energy hard. Technology is no longer the major limiting factor. We are.

How will we get there? By far the most critical action each of us can take is to support global leaders who have a plan for stopping climate change in our lifetimes. Climate may not feel like the most pressing issue at times—what with the economy, health care, education and other issues taking up headlines. But the science is clear: We’ve got 10 years to get our emissions under control. That’s it.

We’ve already begun to see the impacts of climate change as more communities face a big uptick in the severity and frequency of droughts, floods, wildfires, hurricanes and other disasters. Much worse is on the way if we don’t make the needed changes. It’s been easy for most of us to sit back and expect that climate change will only affect someone else, far away. But that’s what the people in Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Washington, the Dominican Republic, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the Philippines, India and Mozambique thought. Every one of these places—and many more—have seen one of the worst disasters on its historic record in the past 10 years.

There are so many paths we could take to 2050. Clearly, some are better than others. We get to choose. Which one do you want to take?

Stand up for a More Sustainable Future

Join The Nature Conservancy as we call on leaders to support science-backed solutions.

Getting to Sustainability

Carbon Capture

The most powerful carbon capture technology is cheap, readily available and growing all around us: Trees and plants.

Energy Sprawl Solutions

We can ramp up clean energy worldwide and site it wisely to limit the effect on wildlife.

Fishing for Better Data

Electronic monitoring can make fisheries more sustainable.

The Future of AI: How Artificial Intelligence Will Change the World

AI is constantly changing our world. Here are just a few ways AI will influence our lives.

Innovations in the field of  artificial intelligence continue to shape the future of humanity across nearly every industry. AI is already the main driver of emerging technologies like big data, robotics and IoT, and  generative AI has further expanded the possibilities and popularity of AI. 

According to a 2023 IBM survey , 42 percent of enterprise-scale businesses integrated AI into their operations, and 40 percent are considering AI for their organizations. In addition, 38 percent of organizations have implemented generative AI into their workflows while 42 percent are considering doing so.

With so many changes coming at such a rapid pace, here’s what shifts in AI could mean for various industries and society at large.

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The Evolution of AI

AI has come a long way since 1951, when the  first documented success of an AI computer program was written by Christopher Strachey, whose checkers program completed a whole game on the Ferranti Mark I computer at the University of Manchester. Thanks to developments in machine learning and deep learning , IBM’s Deep Blue defeated chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997, and the company’s IBM Watson won Jeopardy! in 2011.  

Since then, generative AI has spearheaded the latest chapter in AI’s evolution, with OpenAI releasing its first GPT models in 2018. This has culminated in OpenAI developing its GPT-4 model and ChatGPT , leading to a proliferation of AI generators that can process queries to produce relevant text, audio, images and other types of content.   

AI has also been used to help  sequence RNA for vaccines and  model human speech , technologies that rely on model- and algorithm-based  machine learning and increasingly focus on perception, reasoning and generalization. 

How AI Will Impact the Future

Improved business automation .

About 55 percent of organizations have adopted AI to varying degrees, suggesting increased automation for many businesses in the near future. With the rise of chatbots and digital assistants, companies can rely on AI to handle simple conversations with customers and answer basic queries from employees.

AI’s ability to analyze massive amounts of data and convert its findings into convenient visual formats can also accelerate the decision-making process . Company leaders don’t have to spend time parsing through the data themselves, instead using instant insights to make informed decisions .

“If [developers] understand what the technology is capable of and they understand the domain very well, they start to make connections and say, ‘Maybe this is an AI problem, maybe that’s an AI problem,’” said Mike Mendelson, a learner experience designer for NVIDIA . “That’s more often the case than, ‘I have a specific problem I want to solve.’”

More on AI 75 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Companies to Know

Job Disruption

Business automation has naturally led to fears over job losses . In fact, employees believe almost one-third of their tasks could be performed by AI. Although AI has made gains in the workplace, it’s had an unequal impact on different industries and professions. For example, manual jobs like secretaries are at risk of being automated, but the demand for other jobs like machine learning specialists and information security analysts has risen.

Workers in more skilled or creative positions are more likely to have their jobs augmented by AI , rather than be replaced. Whether forcing employees to learn new tools or taking over their roles, AI is set to spur upskilling efforts at both the individual and company level .     

“One of the absolute prerequisites for AI to be successful in many [areas] is that we invest tremendously in education to retrain people for new jobs,” said Klara Nahrstedt, a computer science professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign and director of the school’s Coordinated Science Laboratory.

Data Privacy Issues

Companies require large volumes of data to train the models that power generative AI tools, and this process has come under intense scrutiny. Concerns over companies collecting consumers’ personal data have led the FTC to open an investigation into whether OpenAI has negatively impacted consumers through its data collection methods after the company potentially violated European data protection laws . 

In response, the Biden-Harris administration developed an AI Bill of Rights that lists data privacy as one of its core principles. Although this legislation doesn’t carry much legal weight, it reflects the growing push to prioritize data privacy and compel AI companies to be more transparent and cautious about how they compile training data.      

Increased Regulation

AI could shift the perspective on certain legal questions, depending on how generative AI lawsuits unfold in 2024. For example, the issue of intellectual property has come to the forefront in light of copyright lawsuits filed against OpenAI by writers, musicians and companies like The New York Times . These lawsuits affect how the U.S. legal system interprets what is private and public property, and a loss could spell major setbacks for OpenAI and its competitors. 

Ethical issues that have surfaced in connection to generative AI have placed more pressure on the U.S. government to take a stronger stance. The Biden-Harris administration has maintained its moderate position with its latest executive order , creating rough guidelines around data privacy, civil liberties, responsible AI and other aspects of AI. However, the government could lean toward stricter regulations, depending on  changes in the political climate .  

Climate Change Concerns

On a far grander scale, AI is poised to have a major effect on sustainability, climate change and environmental issues. Optimists can view AI as a way to make supply chains more efficient, carrying out predictive maintenance and other procedures to reduce carbon emissions . 

At the same time, AI could be seen as a key culprit in climate change . The energy and resources required to create and maintain AI models could raise carbon emissions by as much as 80 percent, dealing a devastating blow to any sustainability efforts within tech. Even if AI is applied to climate-conscious technology , the costs of building and training models could leave society in a worse environmental situation than before.   

What Industries Will AI Impact the Most?  

There’s virtually no major industry that modern AI hasn’t already affected. Here are a few of the industries undergoing the greatest changes as a result of AI.  

AI in Manufacturing

Manufacturing has been benefiting from AI for years. With AI-enabled robotic arms and other manufacturing bots dating back to the 1960s and 1970s, the industry has adapted well to the powers of AI. These  industrial robots typically work alongside humans to perform a limited range of tasks like assembly and stacking, and predictive analysis sensors keep equipment running smoothly. 

AI in Healthcare

It may seem unlikely, but  AI healthcare is already changing the way humans interact with medical providers. Thanks to its  big data analysis capabilities, AI helps identify diseases more quickly and accurately, speed up and streamline drug discovery and even monitor patients through virtual nursing assistants. 

AI in Finance

Banks, insurers and financial institutions leverage AI for a range of applications like detecting fraud, conducting audits and evaluating customers for loans. Traders have also used machine learning’s ability to assess millions of data points at once, so they can quickly gauge risk and make smart investing decisions . 

AI in Education

AI in education will change the way humans of all ages learn. AI’s use of machine learning,  natural language processing and  facial recognition help digitize textbooks, detect plagiarism and gauge the emotions of students to help determine who’s struggling or bored. Both presently and in the future, AI tailors the experience of learning to student’s individual needs.

AI in Media

Journalism is harnessing AI too, and will continue to benefit from it. One example can be seen in The Associated Press’ use of  Automated Insights , which produces thousands of earning reports stories per year. But as generative  AI writing tools , such as ChatGPT, enter the market,  questions about their use in journalism abound.

AI in Customer Service

Most people dread getting a  robocall , but  AI in customer service can provide the industry with data-driven tools that bring meaningful insights to both the customer and the provider. AI tools powering the customer service industry come in the form of  chatbots and  virtual assistants .

AI in Transportation

Transportation is one industry that is certainly teed up to be drastically changed by AI.  Self-driving cars and  AI travel planners are just a couple of facets of how we get from point A to point B that will be influenced by AI. Even though autonomous vehicles are far from perfect, they will one day ferry us from place to place.

Risks and Dangers of AI

Despite reshaping numerous industries in positive ways, AI still has flaws that leave room for concern. Here are a few potential risks of artificial intelligence.  

Job Losses 

Between 2023 and 2028, 44 percent of workers’ skills will be disrupted . Not all workers will be affected equally — women are more likely than men to be exposed to AI in their jobs. Combine this with the fact that there is a gaping AI skills gap between men and women, and women seem much more susceptible to losing their jobs. If companies don’t have steps in place to upskill their workforces, the proliferation of AI could result in higher unemployment and decreased opportunities for those of marginalized backgrounds to break into tech.

Human Biases 

The reputation of AI has been tainted with a habit of reflecting the biases of the people who train the algorithmic models. For example, facial recognition technology has been known to favor lighter-skinned individuals , discriminating against people of color with darker complexions. If researchers aren’t careful in  rooting out these biases early on, AI tools could reinforce these biases in the minds of users and perpetuate social inequalities.

Deepfakes and Misinformation

The spread of deepfakes threatens to blur the lines between fiction and reality, leading the general public to  question what’s real and what isn’t. And if people are unable to identify deepfakes, the impact of  misinformation could be dangerous to individuals and entire countries alike. Deepfakes have been used to promote political propaganda, commit financial fraud and place students in compromising positions, among other use cases. 

Data Privacy

Training AI models on public data increases the chances of data security breaches that could expose consumers’ personal information. Companies contribute to these risks by adding their own data as well. A  2024 Cisco survey found that 48 percent of businesses have entered non-public company information into  generative AI tools and 69 percent are worried these tools could damage their intellectual property and legal rights. A single breach could expose the information of millions of consumers and leave organizations vulnerable as a result.  

Automated Weapons

The use of AI in automated weapons poses a major threat to countries and their general populations. While automated weapons systems are already deadly, they also fail to discriminate between soldiers and civilians . Letting artificial intelligence fall into the wrong hands could lead to irresponsible use and the deployment of weapons that put larger groups of people at risk.  

Superior Intelligence

Nightmare scenarios depict what’s known as the technological singularity , where superintelligent machines take over and permanently alter human existence through enslavement or eradication. Even if AI systems never reach this level, they can become more complex to the point where it’s difficult to determine how AI makes decisions at times. This can lead to a lack of transparency around how to fix algorithms when mistakes or unintended behaviors occur. 

“I don’t think the methods we use currently in these areas will lead to machines that decide to kill us,” said Marc Gyongyosi, founder of  Onetrack.AI . “I think that maybe five or 10 years from now, I’ll have to reevaluate that statement because we’ll have different methods available and different ways to go about these things.”

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the future of ai look like.

AI is expected to improve industries like healthcare, manufacturing and customer service, leading to higher-quality experiences for both workers and customers. However, it does face challenges like increased regulation, data privacy concerns and worries over job losses.

What will AI look like in 10 years?

AI is on pace to become a more integral part of people’s everyday lives. The technology could be used to provide elderly care and help out in the home. In addition, workers could collaborate with AI in different settings to enhance the efficiency and safety of workplaces.

Is AI a threat to humanity?

It depends on how people in control of AI decide to use the technology. If it falls into the wrong hands, AI could be used to expose people’s personal information, spread misinformation and perpetuate social inequalities, among other malicious use cases.

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Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?

Photo: Romolo Tavani/Adobe Stock

Commentary by Samuel Brannen

Published September 16, 2020

CSIS’s Risk and Foresight Group created four plausible, differentiated scenarios to explore the changing geopolitical landscape of 2025-2030, including the potential lasting first- and second-order effects of Covid-19. The scenarios center on the relative power and influence of the United States and China and the interaction between them, along with detailed consideration of other major U.S. allies and adversaries within each of four worlds.

Each scenario narrative was informed by deep trends analysis and subject-matter-expert interviews. CSIS’s Dracopoulos iDeas Lab brought to life the scenarios in four engaging videos designed to test policymakers’ preconceived notions about the defense and security challenges facing the United States and its allies in the second half of this decade. This research was sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Strategic Trends Division.

Figure 1: Scenario Axes

Key Findings

The world order is fragmenting without a clear organizing principle to follow. Within this transforming geopolitical landscape, the most important variables at play are the relative influence and leadership of the United States and China, and the bilateral relationship between these countries. The scenarios suggested that the relative influence of the United States and China and their interaction would play a preponderant role in defining the international landscape in key regions around the world during this timeframe. The relative recovery of both countries from Covid-19, and the degree to which they are weakened or strengthened as a result, was also found to play a significant role in shaping the future geopolitical landscape.

These variables form the X- and Y-axes of the deductive model used to generate the scenario analysis.

Under no scenario was the U.S.-China relationship found to be fully cooperative or positive, though cooperation was possible on select, shared global interests when U.S. power and influence equaled or was greater than China’s. In all scenarios, the U.S.-China relationship remained intertwined, and in all scenarios but the most severe reduction of Chinese global influence, bilateral dynamics were increasingly competitive. Notably, the United States could find sustained advantage in shaping the behavior of China through its allies and partners but only when it was willing to engage multilaterally and when other nations made the cost-benefit calculus that supporting a world under greater U.S. leadership would be preferable to a China-led or non-aligned order. U.S. alliances generally held across scenarios but were more stable and predictable in Europe than Asia and the Middle East, where geopolitics were more in flux and shared interests under increased strain.

This scenario analysis found that the highest likelihood outcome for world order in the decade ahead would not be a unipolar order or a bipolar Cold War-style competition, but a loose multipolarity. Under any outcome, the relative strength of both the United States and China would be diluted or balanced by the influence and independent foreign and security policies of India, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and others. There also emerged in the scenarios a growing number of contestations of U.S. power and influence—in particular due to the “spoiler” or other nefarious behavior of Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Despite its relative loss of economic power during this timeframe, Russia remained the most problematic global actor for the United States and its allies, with only limited room for cooperation on issues of strategic stability. Iran was most aggressive across scenarios in which it sensed weakened U.S. commitment to the Middle East. North Korea remained a consistent challenge in the expansion of its weapons programs, though it was more open to negotiation when the United States was stronger and China was weaker. Violent extremist organizations were active across scenarios but more localized and less transnational. They preyed on relative U.S. weakness or its seeming retreat from key regions where they sought to consolidate gains and when they sensed diminished U.S. cooperation with regional partners.

The scenarios notably identified volatility in the China-Russia relationship, suggesting in many ways that ties between countries may have reached a high-water mark that will be difficult to sustain. Russian foreign policy was found to be strongly tied to its own views of its relative strength vis-à-vis both China and the United States, against which it dynamically rebalanced to its own perceived advantage.

Technological and military surprise were “black swans” in 2025-2030. Military application of technology was more likely to be evolutionary than revolutionary, but technological surprise could not be ruled out and in many ways was considered inevitable, if impossible to precisely predict. Key technologies to track, in order of likely strategic importance, included conventional and nuclear hypersonic weapons, autonomous systems, and synthetic biology. Strategic surprise seemed especially problematic and likely to occur in outer space amid intensified gray zone competition and potential warfighting. Related, inadvertent and uncontrolled escalation across domains was a concern in multiple scenarios, paving the way either for a basis for new strategic stability considerations and possible arms control talks or military confrontation. Last, U.S. adversaries increased gray zone activities across scenarios, seeking to reduce the risk of conventional or nuclear conflict while gaining political objectives in areas the United States has struggled to respond. The risk of conventional or nuclear conflict between countries was understood to increase inversely to relative U.S. influence and was especially high in a world order in which the influence of both China and the United States was diminished and global recovery from Covid-19 especially problematic.

Methodology: CSIS scholars Samuel Brannen, Stirling Haig, Habiba Ahmed, Brian Katz, Lindsey Sheppard, and Joseph Federici conducted a comprehensive literature review of key geopolitical, military, and technology trends shaping the 2025-2030 global security environment. That informed the development of a threat matrix that sought to identify highly likely and high impact trends and highly uncertain and high impact trends.

Director of the CSIS Risk and Foresight Group Samuel Brannen then conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with leading defense and security experts as well as internal U.S. Department of Defense experts. All discussions were held under Chatham House Rule to allow for frank exchange and occurred at the unclassified level based on open source information. The interviews sought to identify both consistencies and differences in opinion between experts, including the use of a pre-screening questionnaire. The interviews focused on understanding the underlying logic or basis for divergence of opinion between experts. The threat matrix was consistently revised based upon these expert interviews. Finally, the highest-impact, most uncertain trends were identified to form the central axes for a 2x2 set of deductive scenarios.

Samuel Brannen leads the Risk and Foresight Group and is a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Samuel Brannen

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The Summit of the Future (22-23 September 2024)

Major global shocks in recent years—including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the triple planetary crisis, among others—have challenged our international institutions. Unity around our shared principles and common goals is crucial and urgent.

The Summit of the Future (September 2024) is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to enhance cooperation on critical challenges and address gaps in global governance. It will reaffirm existing commitments, including to the Sustainable Development Goals and the United Nations Charter, and move towards a reinvigorated multilateral system better positioned to impact people’s lives positively.

The proposal for a Summit of the Future originated in the  Our Common Agenda report . The report was a response by the  UN Secretary-General  to a call from  Member States  for ideas on how better to respond to current and future challenges.

The Common Agenda report called for a renewal of trust and solidarity at all levels – between peoples, countries and generations. It made the case for a fundamental rethink of our political, economic and social systems so that they deliver more fairly and effectively for everyone. It also recommended a corresponding renewal of the multilateral system, with the Summit of the Future as a defining moment to agree on the most critical improvements necessary.

Member States agreed to hold the Summit in September 2024. They also agreed that the Summit would have an outcome – a Pact for the Future.

They articulated the overarching purpose of the Summit, and the Pact:

• to reaffirm the UN Charter,
• to reinvigorate multilateralism,
• to boost implementation of existing commitments,
• to agree on solutions to new challenges, and
• to restore trust.

Additional links:

• Visit the Summit of the Future 2024 website
• “Our Common Agenda” website
• “Our Common Agenda” Policy Briefs

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Futures of Education

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The Futures of Education

Our world is at a unique juncture in history, characterised by increasingly uncertain and complex trajectories shifting at an unprecedented speed. These sociological, ecological and technological trends are changing education systems, which need to adapt. Yet education has the most transformational potential to shape just and sustainable futures. UNESCO generates ideas, initiates public debate, and inspires research and action to renew education. This work aims to build a new social contract for education, grounded on principles of human rights, social justice, human dignity and cultural diversity. It unequivocally affirms education as a public endeavour and a common good.

No trend is destiny...Multiple alternative futures are possible... A new social contract for education needs to allow us to think differently about learning and the relationships between students, teachers, knowledge, and the world.

Our work is grounded in the principles of the 2021 report “Reimagining Our Futures Together: A New Social Contract for Education” and in the report’s call for action to consolidate global solidarity and international cooperation in education, as well as strengthen the global research agenda to reinforce our capacities to anticipate future change.

The report invites us to rebalance our relationship with:

• each other,
• the planet, and
• technology.

Summary of the Report

Renewing the Social Contract for Education, 2-4 December 2024

UNESCO International Forum on the Futures of Education 2024 Suwon, Gyeonggido, Republic of Korea

Interview with Stefania Giannini, Assistant Director-General for Education

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The International Commission

In 2019 UNESCO Director–General convened an independent International Commission to work under the leadership of the President of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, H.E. President Sahle-Work Zewde, and develop a global report on the Futures of Education. The commission was charged with carefully considering inputs received through the different consultation processes and ensuring that this collective intelligence was reflected in the global report and other knowledge products connected with the initiative.

Sustainable development challenges and the role of education

Our foresight work, looking towards 2050, envisions possible futures in which education shapes a better world. Our starting point is observation of the multiple, interlocking challenges the world currently faces and how to renew learning and knowledge to steer policies and practices along more sustainable pathways.The challenges are great. But there are reasons for optimism, no trend is destiny.

Our work responds to the call of the International Commission on the Futures of Education to guide a new research agenda for the futures of education. This research agenda is wide-ranging and multifaceted as a future-oriented, planet-wide learning process on our futures together. It draws from diverse forms of knowledge and perspectives, and from a conceptual framework that sees insights from diverse sources as complementary rather than exclusionary and adversarial.

The third in a series of major visioning exercises for education

Reimagining our future together: a new social contract for education  is the third in a series of UNESCO-led once-a-generation foresight and visioning exercises, conducted at key moments of historical transition. 

In 1972, the  Learning to Be: the world of education today and tomorrow  report already warned of the risks of inequalities, and emphasized the need for the continued expansion of education, for education throughout life and for building a learning society.

This was followed by the 1996 Learning: The treasure within report that proposed an integrated vision of education around four pillars: learning to be, learning to know, learning to do, and learning to live together in a lifelong perspective.

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Please feel free to contact us here if you have any questions or requests. 

5 Technologies That Lead The Future of the Presentation World and How To Use Them (With impressive videos)

Technological developments are changing the direction of the presentation world while internal and external corporate presentations increase their importance as an effective communication medium for companies.

Although methods such as storytelling , which are indispensable for traditional presentation, are very effective for sticking in the minds of the audience, the statistics show that these methods are also under the influence of digital transformation, and only 16.7% of the presentations include storytelling or a case study. Therefore, the technologies used play a decisive and important role in defining a successful presentation.

However, you need to be careful when including a technology in your presentation because the number and the usage area of the technologies that lead the future of the presentation world have increased considerably. To come out with a successful presentation, you should choose the right technology that will make an impact, taking into account your budget, content and audience, and use it correctly.

So, what should you pay attention to in order to choose the right technology and apply it in the best way? The first step is to get to know the alternatives. Making choices without knowing the options may mislead you. So let’s see what are the technologies you can use for your presentation and how you can use them.

What is Hologram?

Hologram is a technology that creates three-dimensional images using light. Both the process itself and the final visual are called hologram. The hologram of an object or human can be made. The hologram offers extremely realistic and impressive visuals, especially when compared to two-dimensional images such as photography.

How to use Hologram in presentation?

Hologram technology enables you to show your product or design in 360 degrees on a vertical surface or a horizontal surface such as a stage, and visualise your presentation on the stage instead of the screen. Using this technology, which we don’t see very often in presentations, you have a high chance of creating a strong impact on the audience.

For the time being, the holographic representation of previously designed 3D objects is pretty common. In addition, the studies on the real-time hologram of objects located in a different location continue. Although the real-time hologram is technically feasible, more detailed work is needed to make it more impressive.

Augmented Reality (AR)

What is ar.

Have you ever heard of the game, Pokémon Go? In this game people were hunting Pokémon with the help of their smartphones wherever they are. This technology, which allows Pokémon to be seen, is called augmented reality (AR).

AR is a technology that brings digital objects to your physical space through technology. AR technology, which is currently available via tablets or phones, will soon be introduced through wearable devices and even contact lenses.

How to use AR in presentation?

Augmented reality enables active participation of your audience in presentations and 3D visualisation to make a difference. At a designated point, you can incorporate objects that cannot be realistically in physical space into your presentation experience, either through viewers’ phones or tablets and AR technology you provide. In this way, you will be able to explain your words more clearly and you will have an unforgettable presentation.

Virtual Reality (VR)

What is vr.

In its simplest definition, virtual reality is a computer-animated environment. It is used with a digital eyeglass that completely covers your eyes. Sometimes it comes with additional apparatus that allows detecting the movements of the ground and other controls. It provides highly realistic visual and auditory environments in which we interact. Senses such as smell and touch can accompany.

How to use VR in presentation?

Today, people do not want to be exposed to information overload, but to experience whatever the subject is. With VR technology, you can let the participants experience your products in a realistic way and invite them to an exciting interaction. Addressing to many senses, VR brings an impressive movement to your presentations by promising an unforgettable experience of your products and services.

Interactive Presentation Technologies

What is interactivity.

Today, different technologies allow interactive applications in which the audience plays an active role. Applications such as immersive experiences and interactive games are among the most common examples of interactivity. In addition, the use of touch screen or gesture to manage the presentation of the presenter is also common.

How to use interactive presentation technologies?

The interactivity that enables the audience to participate is used in ways that give them an authentic experience rather than transferring. One of the most important features of interactive presentations is that it provides an active role for the audience, not passive. In this respect, interactive presentations appear as a multi-dimensional environment beyond visuality.

Technically speaking, when you want to make an interactive presentation, you can use tech products such as touch screens, Leap Motion, RadarTOUCH and Myo Armband to manage the presentation without traditional remote controls. These products will give you independence on the stage and partially deliver the presentation flow to the audience and strengthen the experience.

Realtime Data Visualisation

What is realtime data visualisation.

While data is changing rapidly today, one of the most powerful ways to concretise the impact of this change is realtime data visualization. These visual expressions are generally informative and encouraging. They help to deepen meaning by adding a new dimension to the presentation when words are inadequate.

How to use realtime data visualization in presentation?

Realtime data visualization can be used as data flow transferred to presentation screen; and it can also be transformed into a more interactive model via a screen placed in the presentation space.

Final words

It wouldn’t be wrong to say that there is nothing left outside the scope of technology. As technology evolves, studies and opportunities in different fields change direction. Presentation technologies have joined this trend. Augmented reality, virtual reality and hologram technology that make visual richness possible make the presentation an impressive and memorable experience for the audience. This is exactly what the modern-time’s audience expects: experience, not exposure.

Presentations powered by technology help you keep the audience’s attention on you with unusual approaches and go beyond physical boundaries and make a difference on stage with rich content.

Author : Ozgun Ozpinar

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Summit of the Future: ‘Critical’ opportunity for safer, more sustainable and equitable world

12 September 2024 -  A once-in-a-generation UN summit bringing together countries from around the world marks a critical opportunity for far-reaching agreements on international collaboration for a safer, more sustainable and more equitable world, said UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday as part of a global call to action to support the  Summit of the Future , which begins on 22 September. 

“We need greater global solidarity today and with future generations, better management of critical issues of global concern and an upgraded United Nations that can meet the challenges of a new era,” he said at the  Summit of the Future Global Call event , emphasising that current institutions can not keep up with the changing times.

At the landmark summit, Member States are expected to conclude negotiations ahead of adopting the  Pact for the Future , which aims to chart a path toward achieving the  Sustainable Development Goals  (SDGs) and respond to emerging challenges and opportunities. It will include a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations.

The SDGs are an internationally agreed set of targets to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that by 2030 all people enjoy peace and prosperity.

While the summit is just days away, scheduled to take place on 22 and 23 September, it has taken years of effort to get to this point, Mr. Guterres said.

‘Stuck in a time warp’

Today’s challenges are moving at speeds far too fast for the current tools to solve them due to outdated institutions that are “designed for another era and another world”, the UN chief warned.

“The  Security Council  is stuck in a time warp, international financial architecture is outdated and ineffective and we are simply not equipped to take on a wide range of emerging issues,” he stated.

Mr. Guterres underscored the world’s ongoing ferocious conflicts, deepened geopolitical divides, the rise of populism and extremism and the crisis levels of poverty among the most pressing issues at a time when the SDGs continue to slip out of reach.

“Twenty-first century challenges require twenty-first century problem-solving institutions,” he emphasised, adding that the summit also provides an opportunity to reform the Security Council and international financial architecture.

Read the full story on the UN News website .

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