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How general motors was really saved: the untold true story of the most important bankruptcy in u.s. history.
This story appears in the November 17, 2013 issue of Forbes. Subscribe
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Jay Alix engineered the plan that saved General Motors. Below, he tells his story for the first ... [+] time. Credit: Chris Arace for Forbes
Editor's Note: Lots of people--including President Obama--have trumpeted their role in the success of the government-backed turnaround plan that saved General Motors, the most important industrial company in the history of the United States.
But on the fifth anniversary of the crisis, Forbes presents an exclusive, unprecedented look at what really happened during GM's darkest days, how a tiny band of corporate outsiders and turnaround experts convened in Detroit and hatched a radical plan that ultimately set the foundation for the salvation of the company.
Author Jay Alix , one of the most respected experts on corporate bankruptcy in America, was the architect of that plan, and now, for the first time, he reveals How General Motors Was Really Saved.
By Jay Alix
For months the news was horrific, a pounding beat of warm-up obituaries for what once had been America's greatest and most influential corporation: General Motors. At death's door or already in the graveyard were Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG and Citibank. The mood was apocalyptic.
With car sales in a free fall from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, GM was losing billions and running out of cash. By the time the company closed its books on 2008 it would be in the red by a staggering $30.9 billion. Chief executive Rick Wagoner led the auto delegation in Washington seeking government funding to save the industry and keep GM out of bankruptcy.
Five years later, after an unprecedented government equity investment, GM is thriving and the Treasury plans to sell its remaining stake in the coming months. With countless articles and books now written about the GM restructuring and turnaround--not to mention three years of trumpeting by the Obama Administration taking full credit for the turnaround's success--the most startling aspect of the prevailing narrative is that the core of how the restructuring really happened, inside GM, is yet to be fully told.
In the popular version of the company's turnaround story, as GM teetered toward liquidation in 2009, an Obama-appointed SWAT team, led by financier Steven Rattner, swept in and hatched a radical plan: Through a novel use of the bankruptcy code they would save the company by segregating and spinning out its valuable assets, while Washington furnished billions in taxpayer funds to make sure the company was viable.
The real GM turnaround story, significant in saving the auto industry and the economy, is contrary to the one that has been published. In fact, the plan that was developed, implemented and then funded by the government was devised inside GM well before President Obama took office. In what follows, the inside story of this historic chapter in American business unfolds, laying bare the key facts.
GM's extraordinary turnaround began long before Wagoner went to Washington in search of a massive loan to keep GM alive. My involvement in that story began in GM's darkest days, five years ago on Sunday, Nov. 23, 2008, when I visited Wagoner at his home that morning, presenting a novel plan to save General Motors.
As a consultant with expertise in restructurings and turnarounds, I had completed a half-dozen assignments at GM over the years. I had worked with Wagoner in 1992 when he became chief financial officer. I was asked to come in for a two-year stint as CEO of GM's National Car Rental, the first time GM had recruited an outsider to lead a turnaround in one of its subsidiaries.
By 2008 I had over 20 years of experience with the auto industry and almost 30 years of working on turnarounds. But for the past eight years I had backed away from business and my firm, AlixPartners, to care for my daughters after the death of my wife. I was essentially "retired." But GM's enveloping crisis and my friendship with Wagoner would bring me out.
Early on that November Sunday I called Wagoner at his home in a Detroit suburb. I asked to see him right away, explaining that I had a new idea that could help save the company.
Three hours later I walked through his front door and into his family room. I knew Wagoner believed GM could not survive a bankruptcy. Studies showed consumer confidence would crash. No one would buy a car from a company that was bankrupt. However, what I knew about the economic crisis and GM's rapidly deteriorating liquidity position told me the company had no choice but to prepare for a bankruptcy.
Yet I agreed with Wagoner. For a global company as big and complex as GM, a "normal" bankruptcy would tie up the company's affairs for years, driving away customers, resulting in a tumultuous liquidation. It had happened to other companies a fraction of GM's size. It would mean the end of GM.
"I don't think the company will survive a bankruptcy," he told me. "And no one has shown me a plan that would allow it to survive a bankruptcy."
"Filing bankruptcy may be inevitable, Rick. But it doesn't have to be a company-killing bankruptcy," I said. "I think we can create a unique strategy that allows GM to survive bankruptcy."
To be sure, my idea, sketched out on a few pages, was provocative. I knew as I pitched it to Wagoner that it might raise eyebrows, if not outright objection, from others who believed their plans would be safer.
In short, I proposed that GM split into two very separate parts before filing: "NewCo," a new company with a clean balance sheet, taking on GM's best brands and operations; and "OldCo," the leftover GM with most of the liabilities. All of the operational restructuring to make the new company profitable would also occur before a bankruptcy filing so GM could go through bankruptcy in a matter of days--not months or years with creditors and other litigants fighting over the corporate carcass while the revenue line crashes.
Seeking funding from the government, or any source, we would use Bankruptcy Code Section 363, which allows a company to sell assets under a court-approved sale. Typically, 363 is used to sell specific assets, from a chair and desk to a factory or division, but not the entire stand-alone company. Under this strategy GM could postpone filing a plan of reorganization and a disclosure statement, which consume months and fuel a blizzard of litigation while market share and enterprise value bleed away.
Wagoner listened, challenging every assumption. After discussing it with board members, Rick asked me to come to GM and work on the plan, one of several alternatives GM would consider. I volunteered to help GM on a pro bono basis. But what I could never anticipate was how deep and strong the opposition to my plan would ultimately be.
On Tuesday, Dec. 2, I pulled into GM's Detroit headquarters at 7 a.m. after most of the company's executives had already arrived for work. I was given a small cubicle and conference room on the 38th floor, a spacious but empty place that held GM's corporate boardroom and a warren of cubicles reserved for visiting executives and board members.
Each day I would be the sole person who got off the elevator on 38, one floor down from where Wagoner and his team worked. It was eerie and quiet, the main wall lined with large oil paintings of GM's past chairmen. I'd walk past those gilded frames daily, feeling the full weight of their gaze, reminded of the history and past glory of what had been the most powerful corporation on earth.
Spending 18 hours a day digging through the numbers in GM's filings, I began working in greater detail on the outlines of the plan and making some assumptions on what assets should be transferred to NewCo and what would stay in OldCo, which I dubbed Motors Liquidation. There were thousands of crucial questions that had to be asked and answered with management: Which brands and factories would survive? Which ones would the company have to give up? What would be the endgame strategy? What would be the enterprise value of NewCo? The liquidation value of OldCo?
Wagoner and COO Fritz Henderson were developing three alternative plans. First, they hoped to avoid bankruptcy altogether, believing the government would provide enough funding to bring GM through the crisis. At least two cabinet members in the Bush Administration and others had provided assurances to Rick and board members that government help would be forthcoming.
Second was a "prepackaged" bankruptcy plan being developed by general counsel Robert Osborne with Harvey R. Miller, the dean of the bankruptcy bar and senior partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges. Under this plan, GM would prepare a reorganization in cooperation with its bond creditors that would take effect once the company went into a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The goal of a so-called prepack is to shorten and simplify the bankruptcy process.
Miller commanded great respect in bankruptcy circles and in the GM boardroom, and for good reason. At the age of 75 Miller was the only attorney in the country who had successfully dealt with as many high-profile bankruptcies. Miller was already in the middle of the largest corporate liquidation ever, at Lehman Brothers.
And third was the NewCo plan, based on years of ?experience at AlixPartners, where we had a major role in 50 of the 180 largest bankruptcies over $1 billion in the past 15 years. GM had also retained Martin Bienenstock, the restructuring and corporate governance leader from Dewey & LeBoeuf, to help develop the NewCo plan as well.
Inside and outside GM, the pressures mounted. Each day the company lost more money and got closer to running out of cash. In Washington several prominent politicians began calling for Wagoner's resignation. On Dec. 7 Senator Chris Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat, told Face the Nation' s Bob Schieffer that Wagoner had to move on.
The next day I went to see Wagoner to offer encouragement and advice. It is not unusual for a CEO to lose his job when his company is forced into bankruptcy and a major restructuring. I'd seen this play out many times before and learned the boss should never volunteer his resignation without first putting in place the things that would help the organization survive. I wanted to help fortify Rick's resolve and keep us all focused on the endgame.
From my perspective Wagoner had been unfairly treated by many politicians and the media. Since taking over as CEO in 2000, working closely with Fritz and vice chairman Bob Lutz, Rick orchestrated large, dramatic changes at the company. They closed GM's quality, productivity and fuel-economy gaps with the world's best automakers, winning numerous car and truck awards. They built a highly profitable business in China, the world's biggest potential car market. They reduced the company's workforce by 143,000 employees, to 243,000. They reached a historic agreement with the UAW that cut in half hourly pay for new employees and significantly scaled back the traditional retiree benefit packages that had been crippling the company, while also funding over $100 billion in unfunded retiree obligations. And he was able to accomplish all these changes without causing massive disruptions among GM's dealers or major strikes with the unions.
Ultimately, those structural changes positioned the company not only to survive but also to bring about the extraordinary turnaround. But now, with the economy and the company in free fall, all of that hard work seemed to be forgotten.
It was late in the day on Dec. 8, around 5:30 p.m., when I walked into Wagoner's office.
"Rick, do not resign or even offer to resign," I told him. "Later you may have to fall on your sword to get the funding deal done with the government, but don't do it until we get the three things we need. If you're going to be killed on the battlefield, we need to make it worth it."
"And what is that exactly?" he pressed me.
"We have to get government funding of $40 billion to $50 billion. Plus, we need an agreement with the government and GM's board to do the NewCo plan. And we must put a qualified successor in place. It must be Fritz and not some government guy. It's going to be painful for you, but you've got to stay on the horse until we get all three."
Wagoner was already there. He had no intention of resigning and was determined to complete his mission. I gave him a bear hug, letting him know he had my full support.
When we gathered for a telephonic board meeting on Dec. 15, the mood was urgent, the tension high. Only two weeks after arriving at GM I was about to present the plan to the board of directors in a conference room outside Wagoner's office. Also on the phone were the company's lawyers and investment bankers.
A Spiderphone was in the middle of the table for what would be a historic meeting of the board. Only three days earlier the Senate had abandoned negotiations to provide funding for the auto industry. Suddenly a free-fall bankruptcy within days loomed large. Consideration of the NewCo plan, now refined with the help of chief financial officer Ray Young and other senior finance staffers, took on greater urgency as we were just two weeks away from running out of cash.
"I know the company has many lawyers and bankers working on other approaches," I said. "I know many of the people doing the work, and I've worked with many of them over the years. But I have an alternative strategy for the board's consideration. I suspect there might be some controversy over it, but I believe this could be lifesaving for General Motors."
After carefully laying out the details and time sequence of the NewCo plan, I drew to a close.
"Well," one director asked over the phone system, "I want to hear what Harvey Miller has to say about this. Is there a precedent for this, Mr. Miller?"
Miller's deep baritone voice filled the room, pointing out that the idea was unorthodox and lacked precedence.
Other attorneys chimed in, claiming the plan oversimplified the situation and there would be major problems with it. Yet another added that this would not be viewed well by the court and doubted any judge would allow it. Collectively, they characterized it as a long shot, discouraging the directors from thinking the plan could ever succeed.
Hearing all the disapproving words amplified from speakers in the ceiling, I felt ambushed by general counsel Osborne, who was strongly advocating for a prepackaged bankruptcy strategy, which he believed was the only way to go. Unbeknownst to me he had previously proposed the idea to GM's board, naively believing GM could complete a prepack bankruptcy in 30 days.
GM's most senior leaders had been working with me on the NewCo plan around the clock. I felt strongly this alternative approach could succeed, and I knew that any other type of Chapter 11 strategy would kill vehicle sales and lead to the demise of GM. Now it seemed as if the NewCo plan could be dead on arrival.
"If the attorneys feel this is a waste of time and corporate resources, I don't know why we would pursue this," stated another director.
A chilling silence descended upon the room, broken by Kent Kresa, the former CEO of Northrop Grumman and a GM board member since 2003.
"I understand this has some risk attached to it, but we're in a very risky state right now," he said. "And I understand it may even be unusual and unprecedented. But it's certainly creative, and quite frankly, it's the most innovative idea we've heard so far that has real potential in it. I think it deserves further consideration and development."
Rick then addressed another lawyer on the call, Martin Bienenstock.
"Well, I've actually studied the problem, too, and there's a way for this to work," said Bienenstock. "Almost all bankruptcies are unique and the Code does allow for the transfer of assets. I can't imagine a judge taking on this problem and not wanting to solve it. We've done a preliminary analysis, and it's not as crazy as it sounds. It's unique and compelling."
"Okay, we've heard both sides of it," Rick said after others spoke, smartly bringing the debate to a reasonable close. "I suggest we continue working to develop both the prepack plan and the NewCo option, while seeking the funding to avoid Chapter 11 if at all possible."
The meeting adjourned without a vote. I left the room disappointed to hear Osborne's legal chorus so dead set against NewCo and surprised their remarks had stopped all real discussion of the plan. But I also was relieved the plan was not completely dead, at least not yet.
Over the next weeks I worked closely with Bienenstock, assistant general counsel Mike Millikin, Al Koch of AlixPartners and GM senior vice president John Smith on the NewCo plan. We huddled dozens of times with Wagoner and Henderson to work out which brands GM would ultimately have to give up (Hummer, Saturn, Saab and Pontiac) and which ones it would keep (Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC and Buick). Informed debate and deep analysis of structural costs led to decisions about projects, factories, brands and countries.
On Sunday afternoon, Mar. 29, Wagoner called me. It was a call I had hoped would never come--but here it was.
"Jay," he said, "I wanted to give you a heads-up. The Administration wants me to step aside. The President is going to hold a press conference tomorrow morning."
Wagoner told me Henderson would be named CEO.
"What about the bankruptcy?" I asked.
"They're enamored with the 363 NewCo plan. They seem bound and determined to make us file Chapter 11 and do NewCo. ... This is really tough," he said.
"I'm so sorry," I said, pausing, "but ... you got the money. They're doing the NewCo plan, and Fritz is your successor. ... You've succeeded. You got the three things."
Rick responded with resigned acknowledgment, then said, "Please help Fritz in any way you can," before hanging up.
Rick's personal sacrifice was not in vain. Months of hard work had paid off. The assets and liabilities had been selected. The NewCo legal entities and $45 billion tax-loss strategy had been developed. The strategy I pitched to Wagoner in his living room four and a half months earlier was the plan chosen by Team Auto in a meeting on Apr. 3, 2009 in Washington. Treasury agreed to fully fund NewCo with equity, and thus it became the chosen path to save the company.
By late April NewCo implementation was well under way. The bankruptcy filing would occur in New York within weeks. My partner, Al Koch of AlixPartners, would become the chief restructuring officer running OldCo, now officially named Motors Liquidation, Inc. In my notes, I jotted: "My work is finished ... impact from this day forward will be negligible. ... Treasury's in control. Time to get back to my girls."
On June 1, 2009 General Motors filed for bankruptcy in New York, with $82 billion in assets and $173 billion in liabilities. It was the largest industrial bankruptcy in history. Harvey Miller and his team masterfully defended and guided the NewCo plan through the bankruptcy court, successfully making it their own. New GM exited bankruptcy protection on July 10, 2009--in a mere 40 days, as designed. Fritz called and thanked me.
There would be many other twists and turns to GM's narrative, but the company got its fresh start using the NewCo plan, and the industry was saved with government funding from both Presidents Bush and Obama. In March 2009 President Obama cited a "failure of leadership" as his reason for forcing out Wagoner. In fact, it was Wagoner's exercise of leadership through years of wrenching change and then simultaneously seeking government funding while developing three restructuring plans that put GM in position to survive the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and complete its turnaround, which, ironically, became a key campaign issue in the reelection of Barack Obama in 2012.
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Ivey Business Journal
How general motors lost its focus – and its way.
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When does having too many brands and too many variations of those brands create a perilous situation? The answer is that when you are an American icon, once thought too big to fail, and that never ever thought it should modify, let alone re-consider trimming, its portfolio of offerings. On the verge, General Motors illustrates why building an offering for every market segment may make sense in the boardroom, but not on the balance sheet, where it stanches the flow of cash the corporation desperately needs.
Much has been written about the importance of market focus in recent years, and justifiably so, since global corporate managers have come to realize that how they apply and adhere to this critical strategic and market-planning concept can make or break their companies, to say nothing of their careers. There is no better example of just how important market focus is than the case of General Motors, which has been devastated because of a complete loss of market focus in their corporate portfolio. GM’s unfolding failure and its cascading impact on various stakeholders have been accompanied by a deluge of comments, literature and media reports. As a result, a still-growing mythology has sprung up to explain the fundamental causes of the failure of General Motors.
The major myth is that GM is just one more victim of the current global downturn. It is a myth that has been propagated and, lamely and lamentably, offered as the cause of the company’s troubles by none other than the corporation’s CEO. “What exposes us to failure now is not our product line-up, or our business plan, or our long-term strategy,” said Rick Wagoner last fall, before a Congressional considering whether to offer bailout money. “What exposes us to failure now is the global financial crisis, which has severely restricted credit availability and reduced industry sales to the lowest per-capita level since World War II.”
Such denial withstanding, the reality is that the last five years have been financially devastating for GM. However, the fact is that, during this time, highly market-focused competitors like Toyota and Honda have had solid net cash flows. This points to the purpose of this article, which is to identify and explain the real and central cause of GM’s fall, namely the loss of market focus across the many different portfolio levels in the company. These levels include the portfolio of divisions, brands within divisions, models within brands, the physical and cosmetic variations among models, market segments, dealers and suppliers. The article will argue that the major problem with GM is a deeply imbedded, long-held misconception about the real meaning of market focus and its critical connection to cash flow creation. Historically, GM’s financial metrics have focused on growing market share and revenue, rather than on creating and sustaining positive net cash flow. However, the loss of market focus on the scale and scope of GM’s will, in the long run, inevitably lead to huge cash losses.
It is important to understand that the loss of market focus at any of the above-mentioned portfolio levels has a cascading effect and impacts all the other levels. This corporate, multi-level, cross-portfolio loss of market focus has had a devastating effect on the capacity of GM to generate positive net cash flow. In fact, over several years it has resulted in the once unthinkable: General Motors is running out of cash, desperately seeking government support and considering bankruptcy.
To understand why GM has failed, it is critical to understand what market focus means to market planning and strategy at every portfolio level in GM, and its critical connection to the generation of positive net cash flow. Without clearly understanding and connecting these pieces of the puzzle, it becomes impossible to understand the real reasons for GM’s failure and the few options for turning the corporation around.
What is market focus?
Market focus represents the capacity of managers to constantly — and with clinical detachment — focus the critical cash and human resources of a company and its portfolio only on market opportunities that can create and grow long-term, positive net cash flow. This means that managers and teams must make the tough choices of where to compete and to not compete. It means quickly exiting market segments and opportunities for products, services, and technologies where it just isn’t possible to create positive net cash flow.
There are many examples of companies whose market and strategic planning processes and culture are highly market-focused. General Electric, Wal-Mart, Sony, Toyota, Honda, and Microsoft are a few examples. All of these companies have track records of driving market focus toward opportunities where they can create both wide buyer choice and high cash flows. They also share the clear ability to quickly exit market opportunities that cannot create high, long-run net cash flow.
A critical aspect of market focus for these leading companies is their capacity to deal with market and economic downturns of the kind we are currently experiencing. In growth-market situations, market focus is critical for moving resources to support high cash-flow opportunities. In declining markets, it is even more critical in withdrawing resources away from supporting cash losers. In the case of Toyota for example, even though it is currently suffering a car sales downturn and short-term cash losses, the company’s historically high degree of market focus has left it with high cash reserves to buffer the impact and lower negative cash-flow impact of declining car sales. Not so for General Motors, whose legacy of annual cash losses in high-growth, car-market years has left it with little or no cash to deal with the downturn.
As is the case with most powerful management concepts, market focus and its implications for the corporate portfolio, market planning, corporate strategy and cash flow is a simple concept. Nevertheless, it is a concept that is misunderstood by many of the senior managers with whom I have worked. In reality, market focus is extraordinarily difficult to achieve and sustain. It is, in fact, impossible if the management culture of a company does not understand, embrace, and practice it on a continuous basis. General Motors clearly represents such a company and culture.
General Motors
Like most other large corporations, General Motors has an enormous and complex multi-level, interconnected corporate portfolio. Nested in the corporate portfolio are portfolios of divisions, of brands within divisions, of models within brands, of cosmetic and mechanical variations within models, of market segments, of manufacturing plants, of supply chains, and of dealers. This corporate portfolio is currently operating out of control, with a crippling loss of market focus that has been occurring at every level of the portfolio, and with high and growing cash losses occurring over several years. Incredibly, GM’s web site currently lists a product portfolio of over 95 cars! To underline the seriousness of GM’s market-focus problem, we need to understand that recent indications are that it plans to launch 19 new vehicles by 2010 ( The Automotive Lyceum , March 3, 2009). Recent estimates (The Canadian Press, January 2009) are that GM burned through $6.2 billion of cash in the last three months of 2008, and lost $30.9 billion for the year 2008. In 2007, GM is estimated to have lost $38.7 billion. Market focus demands the existence of two critical conditions if planning and strategy are to be successful – the creation of car market-segment shares, and the creation of car-positive cash flow. Without both of these conditions, market planning and strategy will fail.
Two conditions for market focus
1. Creating car market segment share
Every level of the corporate portfolio must create, support, and sustain customer choice and market share for every car in the portfolio. If any level of the portfolio is not supporting customer car choice, fast action must be taken to quickly turn the strategy around, reallocate resources being used to pursue the strategy, shut the initiative down, or sell or exit the situation. This means that every car in the portfolio of cars that GM markets must create high market share in the market segments in which it competes. GM cannot afford to market cars that sell in small numbers or that compete in very small, specialized market segments. Then again, high market shares of particular segments are not nearly enough to support a market-focused company. Every GM car must also create and grow long-run net cash flow from these market shares.
2. Creating car positive net cash flow
Creating customer choice and market share in leading market segments is useless unless every GM car in the portfolio is creating high and growing net cash flow from that market share. It is very evident that recently, many corporate managers have begun to regard the generation of real cash flow as the only valid and incorruptible financial metric for making money. At the same time, these managers have begun to pay less attention to historical measures of profitability and even less to traditional metrics of financial success, like return on investment (ROI), return on equity (ROE), EBITDA, and the like. Many of these traditional metrics have turned out to be misleading and illusory, primarily because they do not account directly for the negative cash flows required to service debt. In the current global financial collapse, this reality is coming home to roost; all negative cash flows must be accounted for, not just “left in the denominator” of a return calculation.
Market focus in GM means that every existing or new car in the portfolio must produce long-term, net cash flow and high market share in those segments in which it competes. It is very difficult to create these two critical conditions necessary for market focus. Many examples can be found of cars that achieve significant customer choice and market share, but lose cash. One example is GM’s Saturn Division, a major cash flow loser, which will be explored later.
Market focus and cash flow: How cars really make money
Exhibit 1 – Car Cash Flow Dynamics
The most fundamental market focus question is: How do cars make money?
You would think this would not be a problem for GM; after all it has literally thousands of accountants, finance majors and MBA’s from the finest business schools! Yet how do you explain their failure to predict the inexorable slide into huge cash losses? To answer this question, it is critical to understand how individual GM cars and the GM corporate portfolio generate real net cash flow and create the conditions that make this happen. The cash flow dynamic for an individual car is shown in Exhibit 1. As shown, there are only six fundamental drivers of net cash flow for any car in the GM portfolio. These factors are:
- Market segment share (percentage of car units)
- Market segment size (number of cars/year)
- Car unit price (dollars/car)
- Car unit variable cost (dollars/car)
- Fixed cost negative cash flows (dollars/year)
- Investments negative cash flows (dollars /year)
Working in combination, these six factors define and drive the positive and negative cash flow drivers for any car. Together, they combine to determine whether a car will produce positive or negative net cash flow over time.
Car-positive cash flow
As shown in Exhibit 1, CAR POSITIVE CASH FLOW = CAR UNIT SALES x UNIT MARGINS for a particular car . It is critical to note that positive cash flow has nothing to do with annual revenue for a particular car. Conceptually, it is easy to see what a high, positive-cash flow car must do, namely sell a lot of cars at high unit margins. For example, Toyota Camry sells around 400,000 cars per year at solid unit margins. It is a high positive net-cash-flow producer in the mid-price sedan market segment. This segment will be explored later.
How are high unit sales created? As shown in Exhibit 1, CAR UNIT SALES = MARKET SEGMENT SHARE x MARKET SEGMENT SIZE . In order to sell a lot of units, a car must have a significant market share of the large market segments. One example is the Toyota Camry, which has a high market share of the mid-priced sedan market, one of the largest market segments. To create high unit sales for a particular car, a car maker has to be concerned about the unit size of market segments, and what share of the segment will be critical for making some positive cash flow.
Car unit margins
Exhibit 2 – Major Car Market Segments
Creating cars with high unit margins is a difficult factor to manage in the cash flow dynamic. These unit margins represent the dollar difference between car prices at the factory level and the unit variable costs of manufacturing the car. CAR UNIT MARGIN = CAR PRICE – UNIT VARIABLE COSTS . Setting factory and dealer retail prices for a particular car can be controlled to some degree, but managing unit variable costs is much more difficult, since most car companies, including GM, make extensive use of outsourcing and supply chains for the thousands of parts that go into a car. Creating and sustaining high unit margins for each GM car is very difficult to control, especially with a large portfolio of cars.
Looking at these positive cash flow factors in total, we can see that a high, positive-cash-flow car is one that produces a high level of car unit sales with high unit margins. Needless to say, it is difficult for every car in the portfolio to generate high positive cash flow. But it is absolutely critical from a market focus perspective.
From such a perspective, a “winner profile” car is one that has:
- High market segment share
- In a large market segment
- With attractive competitive car prices
- And low variable costs
- And high car unit margins
- And low fixed costs per car
- And low investments negative cash flows per car
A good example of this type of car is the Toyota Camry. By contrast, a” loser profile” car looks like this:
- Low market segment share
- In a small market segment
- With unattractive buyer prices
- And high variable costs
- And low unit margins
- And high fixed costs per car
- And high investment negative cash flows per car
Looking into the future, we can see that the much-touted Chevrolet Volt electric/gas hybrid car, for example, is likely to exemplify this loser profile. I predict that it will lose a lot of cash for GM. Estimated variable costs of producing the Volt are rising. A recent estimate of the car’s unit manufacturing costs is $48,000 ( FuturePundit , April 7, 2008). As a result, the Volt’s estimated retail prices are rising. The likely outcome is slim unit margins, low unit sales and low market share, mainly because of the high prices.
In the case of the Volt, the market segment for a high-priced, limited-range, electric/gas hybrid is tiny. Moreover, Volt’s real dollar per-year operating cost savings for lower-mileage car drivers over alternative, much cheaper gas, diesel, and gas/electric hybrid cars are marginal at best. GM’s investments in the exotic battery and manufacturing technologies involved will be very high, as will be the fixed manufacturing costs per car, given the likely low unit volumes. As a result, Chevrolet Volt will likely be a cash flow disaster for GM. Volt is similar in some ways to the Saturn fiasco, another example of the failure of GM market focus.
In the case of Saturn, which was launched in the 1990’s, the original concept was to create a new GM Division to prove that GM could compete with Toyota and Honda in the low-priced market. (Cars in segments 13 and 14 in Exhibit 2). At the time, GM had a long and dismal history of losing cash flow in the low-price market segment, a legacy of marketing a long series of cars of frequently poor quality and reliability (Chevrolet Corvair, Chevette, and Vega for example). The following market-focus profile emerged for Saturn:
- Relatively high market segment share, driven by low price, and a “made in the USA” market position
- In relatively large market segments (Segments 13 and 14)
- Fairly high unit sales ( About 200,000 cars per year)
- Relatively low prices compared to Toyota and Honda
- Very high variable manufacturing costs, driven by an exotic metal and plastic composite body, exotic new manufacturing and process technologies in a brand new plant in Tennessee, and the choice to manufacture most of the major Saturn basic drive train components in the new plant, rather than outsourcing them, or accessing GM “parts bins.”
- Very high investments due to the above, meaning very high negative cash flows per car to fund these investments
As a result of these cash flow dynamics, Saturn had lost about $15 billion by 2004. (Fortune, December 13, 2004). From a market-focus perspective, the likelihood of losing this amount became evident very early in the Saturn development process. In a market-focused company, the project would have been stopped, but not in GM. Recently, GM has finally acknowledged that the Saturn has failed. GM is now deciding what to do with the Saturn division.
Car-negative cash flows
As shown in Exhibit 1, negative cash flows for car manufacturing include the entire set of manufacturing fixed costs and the negative cash flows to finance the investments to produce the cars. These fixed costs and investment negative cash flows can be dramatically different between cars, manufacturing and outsourcing plants, process and product technologies, countries, and market segments. From a manufacturing point of view it is critical to minimize these fixed costs and investment-negative cash flows per car produced. In other words, it doesn’t help to have low variable costs per car if the fixed costs and investment-negative cash flows per car at a particular manufacturing facility are very high. The ultimate objective of car manufacturing is to minimize the total dollar-delivered cost to manufacture each car.
As an example of how market focus and its connections to manufacturing costs can be wrongly perceived, a recent UAW report ( Solidarity , January/February 2009) proudly boasted of the high “productivity” of some “union” auto plants based on lower labor hours per car. This conveys a very misleading concept of productivity, and it is largely irrelevant. To a market-focused automaker, the highest “productivity” point of car manufacture is where the total delivered dollar cost per car is minimized. In other words, if labor is cheap, the total number of labor hours per car becomes less important to minimizing car manufacturing costs.
Competitive car market segments: Choosing market focus
The most critical market focus choice for any automaker is to decide in which car market segments it wants to compete. A simplified map of the competitive car market segments is shown in Exhibit 2. As shown, there are at least 18 basic market segments in which to compete. This has huge significance for any car maker. Even if an auto maker positions and markets just one car in each market segment, it means that they require a minimum portfolio of 18 cars. This raises the question of why any auto maker would want to market more than one car in each segment. Indeed, there are many car companies that only compete in a few of the 18 market segments.
From a market-focus perspective, more successful car companies (Toyota and Honda) have positioned themselves to compete with highly market-focused cars in segments where they can create and sustain high and growing net cash flow. Examples abound when exploring this segment map. For example, Ferrari competes only in segment 6 and Rolls-Royce only in segments 1 and 2. Mercedes-Benz competes in segments 1, 2,5,6,7,8,10, and 12. It is evident from Exhibit 2 that any company with a product portfolio that has two cars in every segment would have 36 cars in their portfolio; three cars in each segment would result in 54 cars.GM has over 95 cars in its product portfolio! Quite clearly, the company’s car portfolio has grown out of control.
By examining this segment map, it is clear that for GM, having multiple vehicles in many different segments has the potential to destroy market focus by fragmenting segments. There are many other dangerous effects of such strategies!
Critical market focus choices: The GM multi-level corporate portfolio
General Motors’ portfolio exists at several different levels: portfolio of divisions; portfolio of brands within divisions; portfolio of models within brands; brands, models and price ranges, and mechanical and cosmetic variations. Let us examine each.
Portfolio of divisions
Unlike many other automakers, GM has five major car divisions: Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, Cadillac and Saturn (not counting Saab, and the recently shut down Oldsmobile Division). When you consider these divisions and the competitive market segments outlined, it appears that several possible market focus choices are possible. One obvious one is for the five different GM divisions to focus on different market segments. In the history of GM, this was essentially true for many years.
However, over the years, this market focus at the divisional level has completely unraveled. Over time, and for a variety of reasons, each GM division has offered an expanding array of brands, physical platforms and models across many of the 18 market segments. As a result, a huge divisional and cross-divisional replication of cars in many of the market segments outlined now occurs. For many of these market segments, GM now competes with itself for market share and cash flow.
Brands within divisions
Within each division, GM has always been able to choose which cars to have in the portfolio. Over the past years, GM divisions have begun positioning more and more cars in different segments across this potential market The examples of mid-price sedans will be used later to demonstrate the loss of market focus and its impact on cash flows.
Models within brands
Within each of the major divisions, GM markets a number of brands and models. Not only is there a significant number of different brands and platforms within each division, but the platforms are often used to create “rebadged” replicate cars within and across divisions that are essentially the same physical car, replicated at the same price point across other divisions. This rebadging merely magnifies the absence of market focus.
Brands, models and price ranges
Another indication of GM’s loss of market focus is its habit of having wide price-band overlaps within a division and across divisions. Within divisions, there are many different GM car brands and models whose prices at retail (with different cosmetic and mechanical options) cut across each other, so that the top-end, fully-equipped car of one brand is higher-priced than a “stripped” version of another car brand. This has the potential to create huge price confusion among buyers.
Moreover, price band crossing occurs not only within a division, but also across divisions, mainly because of the replication across divisions. In Toyota, if you have about $25,000 (Canadian) to spend, you can only buy two or three different vehicles. Across GM’s divisions, you can buy many different cars and variations of them for $25,000. The car buyer with $25,000 to spend is definitely confused as he or she tries to cope with the huge GM brand, model, and dealer portfolio. This is not true of many of GM’s major competitors, particularly Toyota and Honda.
Mechanical and cosmetic variations
Even within a particular brand and model, GM often offers a great number of variations and options, mechanical and cosmetic. For most of its cars, Toyota offers two basic engine choices, a V6 or an inline four cylinder engine. In some GM divisions there are many more different engine choices, some manufactured in GM and others from different outsource suppliers. There are also many more mechanical options and model variations. This means that the GM portfolio is even larger than 95+ cars, , when you look at the total number of cars, variations, price ranges, brands, replicates, and dealers within five major divisions and between them.
Market focus failure in GM: Portfolio, proliferation and replication
GM’s portfolio proliferation has now been detailed, from the number of portfolio divisions to the number of portfolio brands, models and “rebadged” replicates within and across divisions, to the brand and model price ranges and overlap to the huge number of brand and model cosmetic and mechanical variations. This amounts to out-of-control portfolio proliferation, a fragmentation of market segments and car product positions, and a complete breakdown of market focus. Such a proliferation has huge impacts on a large number of factors that affect GM‘s cash flow and competitive performance.
GM versus Toyota: The example of mid-priced sedans
Looking at the overall GM portfolio, we see that GM currently competes in most of the 18 segments described in this article. However, the company has multiple competing vehicles in many market segments, and many of these are cross-divisional “rebadged replicates.” For example, let us explore mid-priced sedans, which are segment 8 (Exhibit 2). Here, GM’s loss of market focus stands in stark contrast to Toyota’s very high market focus. In the case of Toyota, the Camry brand is their market-focused basic entry in this market segment. Further, the Camry has only two engine options, and a very limited number of choices of cosmetic and mechanical options, which are organized into very clear packages. By contrast, virtually every one of the five divisions of GM has car offerings in segment 8 (not to mention SAAB). The following GM cars are positioned in segment 8 by division.
- Chevrolet Malibu
- Chevrolet Impala
- Buick Allure
- Buick Lucerne
- Cadillac CTS
- Saturn Aura
This loss of market focus in GM is replicated in many other market segments. The difference in market focus is not just slightly different than Toyota’s, but dramatically different. The impact of this huge portfolio proliferation, replication and loss of market focus has a large, complex, and interrelated set of negative effects on cash flow, which will now be outlined in detail.
Market focus loss: Impact on GM cash flows
The ultimate objective of market-focused strategies is to create and sustain high and growing cash flow over the long term. Over the last few years, GM has clearly been moving to a devastating cash position, the result of years of negative net cash flow. As a result, GM’s cash needs have now grown to the point where the company needs government money to survive. While it is true that Toyota and Honda are also currently having short-term cash flow difficulties, they do not have GM’s history of cumulative cash flow losses. Their high degree of market focus has paid off, not only in producing reasonable cash flow, but in minimizing their cash losses when global markets turned down.
Making reference to the cash flow dynamics (Exhibit 1), we can explore how the loss of market focus and multi-level corporate portfolio proliferation in GM hurts every major driver of the cash flow dynamics, including their impact on unit sales, unit margins, unit market share, unit prices, market segments sizes, and unit variable costs, fixed costs, and investments. These will now be outlined in detail.
Impact on GM market segment share and segment size
GM’s portfolio proliferation, as exemplified by the proliferation in segment 8, has a dramatic impact on the drivers of GM cash flow.
- Segment 8 is a large-market segment, but only if you attack it with one market-focused car. When GM fragments the segment by offering seven different cars, they effectively reduce the size of the segment open to each GM car. The impact of this is to dramatically increase the market segment shares that each GM car in segment 8 must have to create positive cash flow.
- Given the number of GM mid-priced sedans in this segment, most cannot sustain high-enough market share to drive positive cash flow. This tends to reduce unit sales of many of the GM cars. But, worse than that, the fragmentation will dramatically affect other costs, as will be discussed later.
- This proliferation dramatically increases the number of market segments that GM effectively competes in by fragmenting the segments.
- GM vehicle proliferation and replication cause many price-range crossovers between many GM cars, which can confuse many potential buyers A potential car buyer with $25,000 to spend on a mid-priced sedan is faced with one clear offering from Toyota and one clear one from Honda, but a huge offering of at least seven cars from GM. In addition, there are many price range crossovers between cars that GM offers in segment 8, and cars it has in segments 2 and 14.This means that car buyers with $25,000 to spend could be faced with the task of choosing a “top of the line” model of one GM car in segment 14 and the entry level of another GM car in segment 2.
- The end result is that many GM cars are attacking the same car buyers and market segments, which increases the size of the market share needed before a particular vehicle can create good unit sales and positive cash flow.
Impact on GM Unit Margins, Unit Prices and Unit Variable Costs
The segment fragmentation described above has huge potential effects on unit margins, unit prices and unit variable costs.
- In the fierce competition between five GM divisions in segment 8, pricing, price cutting, rebates, cash backs, and a variety of other dealer pricing and discount deals become more extreme as GM divisions fight each other for market share in the segment. This competition between different GM brands tends to drive GM’s prices down and have a devastating effect on car unit margins.
- When you combine the above effects of lowering GM car unit margins with the market share fragmentation outlined, it becomes clear why so many GM vehicles struggle to make any real money (net cash flow).
- The effects of brand proliferation on car unit variable costs are equally devastating. Using the example above, producing and marketing the seven cars in segment 8 means complex and fragmented manufacturing, huge increases in the number of different parts, platforms, engines, and transmissions, both of which drive up the unit variable costs of producing each car and dramatically reduce unit margins.
- The combination of pressure on prices plus the escalation of variable costs caused by segment and manufacturing fragmentation is potentially devastating. By contrast, Toyota competes with only one car in segment 8 (Camry), and it sells about 400,000 cars a year. Its high degree of market focus yields lower car unit variable costs, and therefore higher unit margins for the reasons outlined above. It also results in high positive net cash flow for Camry.
Impact on suppliers and supply chains
Exhibit 3 – Car Market: GM Supply Chains
Exhibit 3 shows a simplified outline of GM’s supply chains, in which there are many different parts suppliers, component and module suppliers, vehicle assembly plants, car dealers, and car buyers. GM’s loss of market focus has not only affected GM directly; it also has potentially devastating effects on some GM assembly plants and outsourced parts, components, and modules outsourced suppliers.
For every company in the GM supply chain, the cash flow dynamics are structurally the same as for GM itself, as shown in Exhibit 1. Each supply-chain company wants high-unit volume, high-margin parts to drive their positive cash flows.
GM’s fragmentation of car market segments, manufacturing, and supply chains leads to lower volumes per part, which is very tough on the parts suppliers involved. The loss of market focus has some of the following impacts on design, manufacturing and supply-chain choices:
- Loss of market focus extends new GM car design, redesign, manufacturing and market entry cycle times. With too many new-vehicle market entries (19 new cars planned by 2010) and car upgrades and redesigns, the amount of corporate resources allocated per vehicle becomes very limited, with potentially serious impacts on car quality.
- Proliferation dramatically increases the number of car parts, which increases the number of parts plants and suppliers. This increase in the number of car parts makes quality control much more difficult, especially given the many suppliers that have to be managed.
- Proliferation dramatically increases the number of car assembly plants, which reduces the car volume per plant, which drives costs up, making plant capacity utilization difficult to manage.
- Proliferation also increases the need for greater supplier capacity and variety, and increases the cost and complexity of managing suppliers. Portfolio proliferation increases the difficulty of designing, manufacturing and managing vehicle quality.
- It also increases the human resource and management headcount, and creates huge task and role redundancies in the overall corporate and divisional management, facility, equipment, and staff support infrastructure, which all leads to huge inefficiencies and increases in fixed costs. Some evidence of this can be found in GM’s recent announcement that it will cut 47,000 people from its world-wide workforce. This reduction speaks volumes about the redundancies in the overall corporate management infrastructure caused by the loss of market focus.
GM distribution and dealers
Proliferation has led to the presence of many more dealers than necessary, and certainly many more than most other car companies. Other impacts on dealers include:
- An increase in inventory (“floor plan”) and display costs
- A reduction in dealers’ net car margins, due to longer inventory holding times
- Difficulty for dealers in having the right GM car in stock for a particular potential buyer to inspect and test drive
- An increase in the costs of dealers’ parts inventory and handling, which reduces dealers’ net parts margins
- Greater complexity in dealer-vehicle service costs
- A significant increase in the likelihood of errors in dealers’ parts stores, which can affect service quality and vehicle quality
What GM must do now: Re-gain market focus
It is unclear whether GM can rebuild market focus in time to avoid being washed away by a sea of negative cash flow. Current escalating requirements for cash indicate that GM is operating in high negative net cash flow, and that despite laying off 47,000 more employees and getting cash infusions from the government, it may all be too late. If GM is to turn the situation around, there will have to be, first and foremost, a dramatic change in leadership, a re-conceptualization of GM’s place in the industry and its position in the eyes of its customers, significant corporate and divisional restructuring, and a rebuilding of market focus. This will not be fast or easy, nor perhaps, will it be possible. Some of the major steps that must take place include:
- Leadership must become very clear what their new market focus objectives and performance metrics must be and must not be.
- GM’s objectives must not be to :
- Maximize car revenue (dollars per year)
- Maximize car market share (share of units)
- Maximize unit car sales
- Develop and apply new technologies, product and process innovations for their own sake (unless it clearly drives the cash flow dynamics outlined. Witness the high-tech Saturn disaster!)
- Develop and market extreme environmental cars (unless they can create net cash flow. Chevrolet Volt is likely to lose heavily!)
- None of the above dangerous and misleading corporate objectives will support market focus; some objectives can actually improve market focus, while reducing long-run net cash flow (for example, maximizing unit car sales)
- GM should downsize the number of divisional portfolios to two from five, to have any real hope of rebuilding market focus. Toyota has two divisions (Toyota and Lexus), as does Honda (Honda and Acura). The clear rationale for these market-focused strategies is to be able to compete in one division for low and medium-priced cars, and in another for high-priced cars.
- The autonomy and power of divisional managers to plan their own car portfolios has to be dramatically reduced, and coordinated by GM corporate portfolio management. One of the major factors driving GM’s loss of market focus and runaway portfolio has been the unmonitored behavior of each GM division, which has acted as though it were a stand-alone carmaker, offering a full portfolio of cars across many different market segments, seemingly without regard for the strategies of other GM divisions.
- The first division of GM (Chevrolet/Buick Division) could be designated/re-positioned for low to medium priced cars, which would compete in segments 7 to 18.
- The second division of GM (Cadillac Division) could compete in the high priced segments of 1 to 6.
- Both the number of GM car brands and models should be dramatically reduced. In any market segment in Exhibit 2, there should be no more than two GM cars, and preferably only one.
- Cross-brand and cross-divisional vehicle rebadging and replication must stop. (Witness the Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky sports cars in Segment 12, and many other GM examples)
- There should be no price-band crossovers between the two divisions, or major brands within divisions. For example, the highest-priced Chevrolet must be cheaper than the lowest priced Buick. The highest-priced Buick must be cheaper than the lowest-priced Cadillac.
- The number of car dealers has to be dramatically reduced and clearly defined as Chevrolet /Buick dealers or Cadillac dealers.
- The number of vehicle assembly plants should be reduced and reorganized around the two divisions
- The number of mechanical option and the choices and variations in brand and model engines and transmissions have to be dramatically reduced. For example, one automatic transmission design should be enough to service all of Chevrolet/ Buick division and maybe even Cadillac. Chevrolet/ Buick division does not need more than two or three engine choices
- The number of outsourced parts suppliers has to be dramatically reduced to bring costs and quality under control.
- What GM needs in every segment they focus on are some high unit volume “bread and butter” cars that sell in good volume and at solid unit margins (hopefully, the new Chevrolet Malibu is a harbinger of such cars across the GM portfolio!).
In the case of General Motors, a dramatic shift to a market-focused planning process and strategy will require major and wrenching corporate rethinking and change. Can GM pull it off with the existing leadership? Only time will tell.
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- > The Struggle for Control of the Modern Corporation
- > Consent Destroyed: The Decline and Fall of General Motors, 1958–1980
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- List of Figures and Tables
- Acknowledgments
- 1 The Modern Corporation and the Problem of Order
- 2 Creating Corporate Order: Conflicting Versions of Decentralization at GM, 1921–1933
- 3 Administrative Centralization of the M-form, 1934–1941
- 4 Participative Decentralization Redefined: Mobilizing for War Production, 1941–1945
- 5 The Split between Finance and Operations: Postwar Problems and Organization Structure, 1945–1948
- 6 Consent as an Organizational Weapon: Coalition Politics and the Destruction of Cooperation, 1948–1958
- 7 Consent Destroyed: The Decline and Fall of General Motors, 1958–1980
- 8 Conclusion
- Appendix: General Motors' Financial Performance, 1921–1987
7 - Consent Destroyed: The Decline and Fall of General Motors, 1958–1980
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 August 2011
The textbook M-form led not to rejuvenation and success, but to decline and eventual failure. Ironically, Du Pont representatives would have little opportunity to oversee the organization that they helped put into place. In November 1959, little more than a year after the reorganization, Donaldson Brown, Walter S. Carpenter, Jr., Lammot du Pont Copeland, Emile F. du Pont, and Henry B. du Pont resigned from GM's board as part of the final judgment in the U.S. antitrust suit. With the sale of Du Pont's holdings of GM stock completed, ownership of the corporation was atomized. Financial control at GM would henceforth be carried out almost entirely by GM's own finance staff, with minimal oversight by shareholders. On the operating side of the organization, the new structure disrupted divisional consent rather than producing it. Because the Administration Committee no longer had any formal authority in the planning process, division managers were unable to participate in strategic planning, leaving them subject to legislation without representation. This led to what Fligstein has termed a finance conception of control: with operating men cut out of the planning and resource allocation process, top executives paid little attention to advice offered from the divisions. Instead, the decision-making process was dominated by men with little or no operating experience, and, just as Sloan had feared, operating issues were increasingly subordinated to financial criteria. Over time, even the Executive Committee became almost completely dominated by financial men, as group executives on that committee were replaced by financial men who were even further removed from divisional information and concerns.
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- Consent Destroyed: The Decline and Fall of General Motors, 1958–1980
- Robert F. Freeland , Stanford University, California
- Book: The Struggle for Control of the Modern Corporation
- Online publication: 05 August 2011
- Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511570964.007
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GM: What Went Wrong and What’s Next
Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for General Motors? Or are those just headlights from an oncoming train? Among Harvard Business School faculty, it depends on whom you ask.
The carmaker—home to such storied brands as Cadillac, Buick, and Chevrolet—enjoyed a 46 percent share of the American auto market in the 1950s. The industry leader, unbothered by competition and looming threats, began to coast on its former glory, however, and bypass such areas as consumer preferences and industry innovation. By February 2009, GM's market share sputtered and stalled at less than 19 percent. GM declared bankruptcy on June 1, 2009.
“All stakeholders must work together to make GM's bankruptcy filing a comma rather than a period in the storied history of this American corporate icon." -Daniel Heller
Its future appears uncertain at best—yet expensive nonetheless. The government has pledged $50 billion to the company, with no assurances American taxpayers will recoup any of that investment.
How should business leaders learn from this latest turning point? HBS faculty weigh in.
Daniel Snow, Assistant Professor Of Business Administration:
GM will emerge from this crisis with a dramatically weakened portfolio of both current and future products. Although much attention has been focused on electric cars, hybrids, and fuel cells, I believe that the key player in the carbon-conscious automobile market of the next ten years is the compact car, especially one powered by a diesel engine. With very clean emissions, 60 and 70 MPG fuel consumption, and lots of power, diesel compacts would provide stiff competition to hybrids. But GM has just lost its ability to develop small cars with the sale of its Opel subsidiary to Canadian auto parts maker Magna International and the German government. This is a great deal for Magna, but terrible for Chevrolet. GM's best small cars are engineered (and some are manufactured) by Opel in Europe.
But it's not just about design and engineering. The supply chains and factory networks that provide these cars will need to be divided. GM's explicit strategy of the last decade has been to foster areas of specialization within its subsidiaries around the world—small cars in Europe, subcompacts in Asia, trucks and SUVs in North America—and this has started to yield great results. Now GM (of North America?) will be left with engineering competencies almost exclusively in those same large vehicles likely to be made obsolete by a new 35.5 MPG standard the Administration has promised to implement by 2016.
Daniel Heller, Visiting Scholar:
All stakeholders must work together to make GM's bankruptcy filing a comma rather than a period in the storied history of this American corporate icon. The U.S. cannot afford to lose the thousands of middle-class jobs of GM workers and management, nor the cutting edge R&D that GM does with its suppliers and partner universities. GM faces a unique opportunity to transform its assembly plants and R&D centers into more nimble operations that can sustain its renewed brands far into the 21st Century.
Nancy F. Koehn, James E. Robison Professor Of Business Administration:
General Motors was formed in 1908, the same year Henry Ford brought out the first Model T, a car that launched the U.S. industry and revolutionized millions of Americans' lives. Riding the wave of the Model T's success, Ford Motor Company became the undisputed leader of this young market and by the early 1920s, it was producing 60 percent of all the motor vehicles manufactured in the United States and half of those made worldwide. All of these automobiles were Model Ts, offered in one color: black.
“Although there are many factors that contributed to the company's long, slow bleed, the three fundamental issues are management's consistent failure to do the very things that made the business so successful initially." -Nancy F. Koehn
What happened next was both pivotal in shaping the auto industry for much of the 20th century, and in the face of GM's bankruptcy announced recently, terribly ironic. Beginning in the mid 1920s, GM staged an astounding victory against Ford Motor Company. Alfred Sloan, Pierre Du Pont, and other GM executives placed a series of important bets on what American consumers wanted (different makes, models and prices; cars that were status symbols and identity holders as well as transportation sources) and they did so with careful, consistent attention to what the competition was—and was not—doing. As company leaders rolled out this daring strategy, they also created an organizational structure and culture developed to support a multi-product, vertically integrated enterprise. By the mid 1930s, GM's market share had risen to 42 percent while Ford's had fallen to 21 percent. And General Motors had laid the groundwork for decades of industry dominance, offering "a car for every purse and purpose" and pioneering the multidivisional structure that became one of the signal achievements of the modern corporation.
In this context, it is interesting to consider the root causes of General Motor's decline, which has been under way for 30 years. Although there are many factors that contributed to the company's long, slow bleed, the three fundamental issues are management's consistent failure to do the very things that made the business so successful initially.
- First, pay close attention to what is happening to consumers' lives in the context of the larger environment—not only their stated preferences, but their hopes, dreams, wallets, lifestyles, and values.
- Second, keep an equally close eye on the competition.
- And third, understand how a company's structure and culture relate to its strategy. Use all this understanding to place innovative bets. This is what the early leaders of GM did. And this is what several generations of executives—beginning in the 1970s with the first oil shocks and the entrance of Japanese imports—have consistently failed to do.
It has been a failure of leadership as astounding and momentous (and ironic) as the company's early achievement.
Robert D. Austin, Associate Professor:
When I worked in a U.S. auto company in the mid 1990s, we were doing many of the right things. But often, when we ran up against the really tough problems, when we started to feel the real pain associated with real change, we pulled back. We were so profitable then, it was hard to muster the will to make the hard choices. Today, the range of choices has narrowed considerably. Obviously, June 1, 2009 was a momentous day in U.S. business history. Much of the substance of 20th century management was worked out at GM. Let's hope that crisis will summon the will to make the changes that are needed. If not, the next Detroit may be in China, and sooner than we think.
Joseph L. Bower, Baker Foundation Professor Of Business Administration:
The GM bankruptcy poses several questions. How did the board and management of a great company ever allow this extraordinary situation to develop? It is easy to point to the labor agreements from the 1950's, and the slow response to the superior engineering and manufacturing of Japanese competitors, and a reluctance to take environmental issues seriously. But these were not overnight developments. Beyond that, did GM's financial controls become too powerful a force for the product engineers to overcome? Did the marketers not see what Toyota was doing with the Camry and Lexus? On another front, what does it mean for the U.S. government to be supporting one competitor against a group of healthy rivals? Is that what our bankruptcy laws were designed to accomplish? Doesn't a healthy industry require less capacity, so that the winning companies can actually prosper? The administration is embarking on an interesting experiment in political economy.
Malcolm S. Salter, James J. Hill Professor Of Business Administration, Emeritus:
Last December the U.S. Treasury had no choice but to become GM's "lender of last resort." To have done otherwise would have been devastating for the U.S. and global economy. With the June 1st bankruptcy deal, the U.S. government's role essentially changes from "reluctant" creditor to "reluctant" owner. And the UAW's role shifts to being an owner as well. Since no other private capital has been willing to step forward, these role changes are not necessarily a bad thing—as long as the Administration lives up to its pledge to keep partisan politics out of inter-firm competition by refraining to exercise the legitimate decision rights of equity holders. Ditto for the UAW.
“The June 1st bankruptcy deal and presidential statement open a new chapter on the conduct of industrial governance and American capitalism." - Malcolm S. Salter
But the President left the door slightly open for selective intervention when he pledged non-interference "in all but the most important decisions." What could those decisions be for the government? For the UAW? The June 1st bankruptcy deal and presidential statement open a new chapter on the conduct of industrial governance and American capitalism. This chapter is being written more or less "on the fly." It is now up to Congress and the rest of us to monitor this highly incremental governance strategy before it is either unduly celebrated or castigated by the public and, more importantly, integrated without critique into the nation's industrial policy "playbook."
Dennis Yao, Lawrence E. Fouraker Professor Of Business Administration:
The threat of bankruptcy, by allowing the government and General Motors to negotiate important deals with GM's unions and a majority of creditors, went a fair distance toward achieving a restructuring that would make it possible for GM to emerge as a viable long-term player in the automobile industry. Unfortunately, the threat was not enough; hence the actual bankruptcy.
In addition to the usual strategy, resource, and implementation concerns faced by a company emerging from Chapter 11, the "new GM" has an additional set of worries that arise while the primary owners are the U.S. and Canadian governments. While attention to business environment issues is important for all automakers, GM is more likely than most of its rivals to feel strong pressure to pursue public policy goals such as domestic employment that are not normally pursued by the private sector. Domestic employment, of course, is an important justification for the government bail-outs, but inflexibility with respect to employment and compensation has also been part of the original problem. Hopefully, the new GM will soon offer the type of products that will make employment a lesser concern.
More Hbs Faculty Opinions In Other Publications:
GM and the World We Have Lost June 3, 2009 - Boston Globe Richard Tedlow and David Ruben comment on the profound American loss that is the collapse of General Motors.
How GM Wasted 'a Good Crisis' June 2, 2009 - Wall Street Journal Bill George discusses the demise of General Motors and the opportunities missed.
Why I Don't Want to Own General Motors June 1, 2009 - Harvard Business Publishing Rosabeth Moss Kanter comments on the bankruptcy of GM, calling it a "dangerous precedent."
The Past and Future of General Motors April 9, 2009 - Huffington Post Clay Christensen writes on how foreign auto companies disrupted the U.S. auto industry back in the 1960's, and the undeserved removal of Rick Wagoner as CEO.
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GM’s risk management failures provide lessons for other firms
Strategic fails afford valuable lessons. There is something to be learned from the spectacular recent failure of General Motors’ once highly-touted enterprise risk management program.
In 2012, G. Mustafa Mohatarem, the Chief Economist at General Motors, in praise of his firm’s implementation of a new Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) program, commented on lessons learned by his company. He said: “There is a tendency to underestimate the risk…It is relatively easy to say, ‘Well, it’s a low probability risk, let’s go on.’ It may be a very low probability event, but those low probability events have a way of materializing, and we’ve got to understand what happens if we do it.”
General Motors is now caught in the grip of a strategic failure that materialized from a seemingly “low probability” event. A recall of 3.1 million vehicles is expected to result in a charge of $300 million . The US Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation to determine if GM knowingly withheld information from consumers on defective vehicles. Just this week, Toyota was fined a record $1.2 billion by the US Government in another case. GM is facing similar penalties .
Whenever a company or organization finds itself in the throes of failure, large or small, it is useful to return to fundamentals and ask what happened in terms of basic analysis. At the heart of most any corporate strategic failure lies a misunderstanding of simple concepts such as Porter’s Five Forces, the SWOT analysis or competitive advantage.
GM did not take its own risk management process seriously. In 2012, GM’s then-Chairman and CEO, Dan Akerson gave the impression GM was in control, saying, “The best risk management function…is one that you never hear about publicly…You are always trying to anticipate, trying to move before you have to, and if you do, try to look across the entire enterprise and get an integrated view of risk… Decisions you make today will ultimately have an impact on you many years out. Large, complex, global organizations…don’t fail with one dumb decision. There has to be many, cascading decisions that accumulate to erode your competitive position.”
Those were the days when a proud GM trumpeted the value-added benefits of its ERM program. The company was touted as a risk management model for others to emulate by risk professionals, trade journals and academics. “If any company can be said to have put the ‘enterprise’ in risk management, it’s GM,” CFO magazine announced in 2013.
Source: GM Presentation at RMS 2012 ERM Conference
Alain Genouw, CFO at GM Global Connected Consumer, OnStar LLC, characterized the risk management attitude at GM this way: “In the past, risk management was not on the forefront of everybody’s thinking or tasks. It was more of a check-the-box type of activity. Today at GM (2012), risk management is front and center for everybody…It is more of a collaborative effort to make sure we understand those risks and be proactive about managing those risks.”
A Global Risk Insights post three months ago questioned whether GM’s ERM had evolved beyond the “check-the-box” stage sufficiently to focus on effective execution. The piece ended pessimistically, stating that “It might be a while before GM can quantify its ERM program’s impact.” It seems this pessimism was unwarranted. GM can now quantify its impact; the ERM program could cost well over a billion dollars.
There is some hopeful news. The new CEO at General Motors, Mary T. Barra, knows where to begin in the wake of the recall disaster: “These are serious developments that shouldn’t surprise anyone. After all, something went wrong with our process in this instance, and terrible things happened…We are conducting an intense review of our internal processes.”
Developing a strategy to turn GM’s ERM process into an effective program for risk management analysis and execution would be a good start. Brian Thelen, GM’s Chief Risk Officer, told CFO magazine that ERM helps GM make better decisions and is part of the global automaker’s competitive advantage. This is probably true to some extent, but ERM is not the strategic strength GM management believes it to be.
In retrospect, the company’s confidence in its process seems misplaced. The graphic above is a slide from a presentation given by CRO Thelen in 2012. It can be argued GM violated most if not all the components of its Risk Management Process.
GM’s risk management culture was not as developed as it should have been. Exposing individuals at various levels of management to the goals and objectives of the ERM program are not the same as promoting and embedding risk awareness. The company was not as adept at spotting, assessing and mitigating risks as it imagined. No one in the firm seems to have owned this particular risk, so no plans appear to have been developed to manage it.
A feedback loop appears not to exist. The communication and evaluation of existing internal risks – in this case, faulty ignition switches – did not take place for 10 years . It appears GM underestimated the probability of the risks associated with the faulty engineering, and failed to recalculate risks in a Bayesian fashion. It looks as though GM performed an inadequate cost-benefit analysis, if any.
GM manufactured long-standing weaknesses in an important strategic activity – the identification, communication, analysis, and mitigation of risks. An “accumulation of cascading decisions,” the weaknesses contributed to a significant failure. These problems were entirely internal to company operations; GM was in complete control of these factors. Further, these weaknesses thrived despite a “model” company-wide ERM process in place under the direct and active supervision of the company’s top management and board.
Instead of being part of General Motors’ competitive advantage, as CRO Thelen asserts, the company’s enterprise risk management system created for GM a distinct competitive disadvantage. When companies mistake process for execution, “terrible things” can happen. CEO Barra is correct, this should surprise no one.
About Author
Steven Slezak
Steven is on the faculty at Cal Poly in San Luis Obispo, California, where he teaches finance and strategy. He taught financial management and financial mathematics at the Johns Hopkins University MBA program. He holds a degree in Foreign Service from Georgetown University and an MBA in Finance from JHU.
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Timeline: A History Of GM's Ignition Switch Defect
Consulting materials engineer Mark Hood shows the ignition assembly that has a faulty ignition switch (black piece at left), in the mechanical testing laboratory at McSwain Engineering Inc. in Pensacola, Fla. The firm helped to conduct the engineering investigations and failure analysis that resulted in the GM recall. Michael Spooneybarger/Reuters/Landov hide caption
Consulting materials engineer Mark Hood shows the ignition assembly that has a faulty ignition switch (black piece at left), in the mechanical testing laboratory at McSwain Engineering Inc. in Pensacola, Fla. The firm helped to conduct the engineering investigations and failure analysis that resulted in the GM recall.
In February, General Motors issued sweeping recalls for several models suspected of having a faulty switch that automatically turns the car's engine off and prevents air bags from deploying — while the car is in motion. More than 2.6 million cars have been recalled so far.
At the core of the problem is a part in the vehicle's ignition switch that is 1.6 millimeters less "springy" than it should be. Because this part produces weaker tension, ignition keys in the cars may turn off the engine if shaken just the right way.
NPR looked into the timeline of events that led to the recall. It's long and winding, and it presents many questions about how GM handled the situation: How long did the company know of the problem? Why did the company not inform federal safety officials of the problem sooner? Why weren't recalls done sooner? And did GM continue to manufacture models knowing of the defect?
2001: GM detects the defect during pre-production testing of the Saturn Ion.
2003: A service technician closes an inquiry into a stalling Saturn Ion after changing the key ring and noticing the problem was fixed.
2004: GM recognizes the defect again as the Chevrolet Cobalt replaces the Cavalier.
The Chevrolet Cobalt was among more than 2 million GM cars recalled for a faulty ignition switch. General Motors/AP hide caption
March 2005: GM rejects a proposal to fix the problem because it would be too costly and take too long.
May 2005: A GM engineer advises the company to redesign its key head, but the proposal is ultimately rejected.
May 24, 2005: GM posts a $1.1 billion first-quarter loss, blaming it on union overhead and high gas prices harming SUV sales.
December 2005: GM sends dealers a bulletin stating the defect can occur when "the driver is short and has a large and/or heavy key chain ... the customer should be advised of this potential and should ... [remove] unessential items from their key chain."
July 29, 2005: Maryland resident Amber Marie Rose, 16, dies when her 2005 Chevrolet Cobalt crashes into a tree after the ignition switch shuts down the car's electrical system and the air bags fail to deploy.
December 2005: GM issues a service bulletin announcing the problem, but does not issue a recall.
July 26, 2006: GM loses $3.2 billion in the second quarter, absorbing costs of early retirement buyout packages to 30,000 blue collar workers.
March 2007: Safety regulators inform GM of the issues involved in Amber Rose's death; neither GM nor the safety regulators open a formal investigation.
April 2007: An investigation links the fatal crash of a 2005 Chevrolet Cobalt in Wisconsin to the ignition defect, but regulators do not conduct an investigation.
September 2007: A NHTSA official emails the agency's Office of Defects Investigation recommending a probe looking into the failure of air bags to deploy in crashes involving Chevrolet Cobalts and Saturn Ions, prompted by 29 complaints, four fatal crashes and 14 field reports.
Nov. 17, 2007: The Office of Defects Investigation at NHTSA concludes that there is no correlation between the crashes and the failure of air bags to deploy, ending the proposed probe.
Dec. 12, 2008: The U.S. Senate votes to oppose a government bailout for GM, despite support from outgoing President George W. Bush and President-elect Barack Obama and GM's announcement that it's nearly out of cash and may not survive beyond 2009.
Dec. 18, 2008: President Bush announces bankruptcy is an option, if it's "orderly" and involves unions and other stakeholders.
Dec. 19, 2008: Bush approves a bailout plan, giving GM and Chrysler $13.4 billion in initial financing from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
April 22, 2009: GM says it will not be able to make a June 1, 2009, debt payment.
April 24, 2009: GM says that it will scrap the Pontiac brand to invest more in Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC.
Fritz Henderson, General Motors president and CEO, during a June 1, 2009, press conference to announce that GM will seek bankruptcy protection. Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images hide caption
Fritz Henderson, General Motors president and CEO, during a June 1, 2009, press conference to announce that GM will seek bankruptcy protection.
June 1, 2009: GM files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
July 10, 2009: The U.S. Treasury purchases GM assets, giving the government primary ownership of the company.
February 2010: NHTSA again recommends a probe looking into problems with air bags in Cobalts; ODI again decides that there is no correlation and drops the matter.
Oct. 26, 2010: Consumer Reports says GM is considered "reliable" based on scores from road tests and performance on crash tests.
2012: GM identifies four crashes and four corresponding fatalities (all involving 2004 Saturn Ions) along with six other injuries from four other crashes attributable to the defect.
Sept. 4, 2012: GM reports August 2012 sales were up 10 percent from the previous year, with Chevrolet passenger car sales up 25 percent.
June 2013: A deposition by a Cobalt program engineer says the company made a "business decision not to fix this problem," raising questions of whether GM consciously decided to launch the Cobalt despite knowing of a defect.
Dec. 9, 2013: Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew announces the government had sold the last of what was previously a 60 percent stake in GM, ending the bailout. The bailout had cost taxpayers $10 billion on a $49.5 billion investment.
End of 2013: GM determines that the faulty ignition switch is to blame for at least 31 crashes and 13 deaths.
Mary Barra, who became the CEO of General Motors in January 2014, is facing questions over how the company handled the ignition switch problem. Carlos Osorio/AP hide caption
Mary Barra, who became the CEO of General Motors in January 2014, is facing questions over how the company handled the ignition switch problem.
Jan. 15, 2014: Mary Barra becomes CEO of GM and the first woman to run a major automaker.
Jan. 31, 2014: Barra learns of the ignition switch defect, according to GM.
Feb. 7, 2014: GM notifies NHTSA "that it determined that a defect, which relates to motor vehicle safety, exists in 619,122 cars."
Feb. 13, 2014: GM officially recalls 2005-2007 Chevrolet Cobalts and 2007 Pontiac G5s.
Feb. 25, 2014: GM adds 748,024 more vehicles to the recall.
March 10, 2014: GM hires two law firms to look into the recall, with Anton "Tony" Valukas, who investigated Lehman Brothers after the firm's 2008 collapse, leading the internal probe.
March 17, 2014: GM recalls 1.55 million vans, sedans and sport utility vehicles.
Key Documents About The GM Recall
March 17, 2014: Barra states in a video apology that "something went very wrong" in GM's mishandling of the crisis. She says the company expected about $300 million in expenses in the current quarter to cover the cost of repairing 3 million vehicles.
March 18, 2014: GM appoints a new safety chief.
March 19, 2014 : Attorney General Eric Holder announces that Toyota is being fined a record $1.2 billion, a criminal penalty, for not providing adequate information in 2009 to customers who complained about safety issues involving sudden acceleration of vehicles.
March 20, 2014: The House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations schedules a hearing for April 1, titled "The GM Ignition Switch Recall: Why Did It Take So Long?"
March 28, 2014: GM recalls an additional 824,000 vehicles (including all model years of the Chevrolet Cobalt and HHR, the Pontiac G5 and Solstice, and the Saturn Ion and Sky), stating ignition switches could be faulty; the new total number of recalled vehicles in the U.S. is 2,191,146.
April 1, 2014: GM hires Kenneth Feinberg, an attorney specializing in corporate payouts, as a consultant "to explore and evaluate options" in the automaker's response to families of the victims involved in the recall.
April 1-2, 2014: Barra and NHTSA Acting Administrator David Friedman testify at House and Senate hearings on the handling of the recall. Barra apologizes to family members whose loved ones have died from the defect.
April 3, 2014: Deadline for GM to respond to 107 questions from NHTSA.
April 10, 2014 : GM starts a Speak Up for Safety campaign, aimed at encouraging employees to say something when they see a potential safety issue for customers.
April 10, 2014 : Barra confirms that two GM engineers have been put on paid leave as part of the ignition switch investigation.
April 10, 2014 : GM adds ignition lock cylinders to its safety recall of 2.2 million older model cars in the U.S.
May 15, 2014 : GM adds five more recalls of about 2.7 million vehicles in the U.S. They include malfunctioning tail lamps, head lamps and brakes.
May 16, 2014 : The government announces GM will pay a record $35 million civil penalty after NHTSA determined the automaker delayed reporting the ignition switch defect.
June 5, 2014: An internal inquiry by Anton Valukas, a former U.S. attorney, into the ignition switch recall finds an 11-year "history of failures" and "a pattern of incompetence and neglect," Barra says.
June 16, 2014: GM announced the recall of 3.2 million more cars, including Chevrolet Impalas and the Cadillac DTS, for faulty ignition switches.
Sources: General Motors, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, House Energy and Commerce Committee, The New York Times, Automotive News , Bloomberg, NPR research
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